The 2020 AFL season is like no other before it, a seven-month rollercoaster of hubs, short breaks, changing game lengths, rule interpretations, and dealing with injuries.
No club has better mirrored the 2020 rollercoaster than Collingwood.
A dominant Round 1 win over the Bulldogs was the perfect start to the season, before the game went into a near two-month hiatus.
On return, a scrappy draw with the Tigers preceded a strong win over the much-improved Saints.
Disappointing losses against GWS and the Bombers left the Pies with two wins, two losses and a draw after five rounds.
The following two weeks saw two of the Pies best performances of the year, with wins over Hawthorn and Geelong.
The Hawks win came at a high cost, with Jeremy Howe’s late injury, but the win over the Cats was outstanding. Darcy Moore intercepting in defence, a +20 contested possession count led by a dominant midfield, and a flexible and versatile forward line, capped off by a five-goal effort from Jordan De Goey.
In the five games since the Cats win, the Pies are 2-3, with sizable losses to West Coast (66 points) and Melbourne (56), and lacklustre wins over Adelaide and Sydney, both of whom the Pies trailed at half time.
With five games remaining in the Home and Away season, it’s time to take stock of where the Pies are at, and what they need to fix in the lead in to finals.
WHAT’S WORKING
The Pies team defence has been elite in 2020.
Going into Round 12, Collingwood had conceded less than 50 points a game, number one in the AFL.
For a number of years, the Pies have held good shape behind the ball, adjusting their positioning to take away attacking play from the opposition.
This often forces teams into slow play, and long kicks down the line that play into the hands of interceptors like Moore and Howe.
The Pies rank in the top four for Time in Forward Half, preventing scores from Stoppage and from Turnover, showing their strong defensive mechanisms.
Collingwood has no trouble getting their hands on the ball, ranking in the top two for Contested Possession and Disposal differential. They are a strong Centre Bounce team, and on the back of Brodie Grundy, have one of the best Hit Out differentials in the competition.
WHAT’S NOT WORKING
While they are strong at Centre Bounce, it must be noted that the Pies are only mid-table for overall Clearance differential. This has been a pattern in recent years, an inability to capitalise on Grundy’s dominance at around the ground stoppages.
An area for improvement is the Pies efficiency going forward – this year Collingwood rank in the bottom six for converting their Inside 50s to Scores.
There are two primary reasons for this. The first is personnel, with injuries and form hitting the Pies preferred forward six hard. The loss of De Goey in particular has had a significant impact on the Pies ability to score, while on Saturday against the Dees, the Pies lost both Reid and Mihocek to in-game injuries.
The second is ball use, with coach Nathan Buckley referencing the Pies lack of “a connected brand of footy” in his post-match press conference on Saturday.
The Pies have become prone to over possessing by hand through the midfield, which makes forward connection more difficult.
Going into Round 12, the Pies average of 9 marks inside F50 per game ranked 12th. Against the Dees they were restricted to just 7, the fourth time in five weeks they’ve been kept under their season average
WHERE TO FROM HERE
Backs
This end of the ground is the most settled for the Pies, with only Howe racing the clock to be ready for finals.
The biggest decision from a selection standpoint will be around Roughead, Dunn and Madgen, in partnering Moore as tall defenders. The Pies smalls of Maynard, Crisp and Noble are well settled and predictable in their output.
Midfield
With Treloar also racing the clock for finals and Pendlebury back now from injury, this area of the ground is also reasonably settled.
One question for the Collingwood match committee will be whether to employ a run with player such as Levi Greenwood in the run home to finals, as he was late in the 2018 season. While this would take away a ball winner from the Pies midfield, it would provide balance and assist the Pies around the ground stoppages, by taking away an opposing clearance winner.
Forwards
The biggest question mark for the Pies surrounds their forward line, following an enormous injury toll throughout this season.
The Pies entered their clash with Melbourne with an unusually tall forward mix – Mihocek, Reid and Darcy Cameron.
Jamie Elliott and Will Hoskin-Elliott have returned from injury, however Jaidyn Stephenson was left out altogether.
As an opposition coach, the biggest fear against Collingwood’s forward line is their versatility and speed.
The Collingwood match committee should look to go smaller in attack, and play their forwards higher up the ground, to create space to fast break into ahead of the ball.
One tall target is still required as a bail out option. While Mason Cox does not win an enormous amount of the ball, his ability to bring the ball ground in these situations cannot be underestimated, especially against teams like West Coast, Geelong and Richmond.
Ball Use
The message for the Pies midfield is simple – have confidence to kick forward to one on one match ups and trust the forwards to get the job done.
Slow ball use of half back, or over possessing by hand through the midfield, allows the opposition defenders time to recover and get into better positions to defend.
With De Goey out, the Pies best forward mix must include Mihocek, one of Cox or Cameron, Hoskin-Elliott, Stephenson and Elliott.
The remaining Half Forward spots are filled by two of Daicos, Callum Brown and Josh Thomas. Their roles as are crucial, as they help transition the ball through the midfield, then press into the Pies forward 50 to help lock the ball in.
With a fast and athletic forward line, the ball use doesn’t have to be perfect, and any opposition defensive group will be worried when the ball hits the ground in Collingwood’s forward line.
The Next Five Weeks
Season 2020 is all about turning obstacles into opportunities.
For Collingwood the next five weeks in the lead up to finals are an opportunity to settle their forward mix and be more direct in their ball movement.
In doing this they will complement their strong team defence and contested ball winning ability, and give the top teams plenty to worry about come October.