Finding the Melbourne Cup winner is a serious task every year.
With futures bets and long-winded multis aplenty already taken in an attempt to purport yourself as a true ‘overs god’, the attention begins turning to the final field of 24.
Form guides are pored over, trifectas and first fours are nutted out and the hopes of many a punter are pinned on the race that stops a nation.
In a bid to make things easier for you, the general mug punter, we’ve put together a formula that may help you land the winner of Tuesday’s 2021 edition of the lucrative two-mile handicap.
Looking back at the last four years, there has been somewhat of a trend with a certain type of international raider.
The lightly raced, lightly weighted Northern Hemisphere 3YO
It is the Northern Hemisphere three-year-old, a young four under Australian racing conditions, who generally runs well in the Cup.
Throw in lightly raced, a break between runs and a light weight and you have a recipe for success.
That formula has seen Rekindling and Cross Counter win in 2017 and 2018, while Il Paradiso was an unlucky third in 2019 and Tiger Moth ran second last year.
In 2021, there is just ONE horse who fits the bill - Sir Lucan.
Formerly trained and raced in Ireland, Sir Lucan is now with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and is now guaranteed a run in the Cup.
See some key stats for the Irish-bred galloper:
Sir Lucan
Career starts prior: 8
Weeks between runs: 7
Weight: 50kg
Comparisons below:
Rekindling
Career starts prior: 9
Weeks between runs: 7
Weight: 51.5kg
Cross Counter
Career starts prior: 7
Weeks between runs: 11
Weight: 51kg
Il Paradiso
Career starts prior: 8
Weeks between runs: 7
Weight: 52.5kg
Tiger Moth
Career starts prior: 4
Weeks between runs: 7
Weight: 52.5kg
Then there is the obvious...
The international stayer
It also just helps to be a visiting international full stop (New Zealand not included).
Vow And Declare aside, it has been an overseas domination since 2017 with 11 of the 12 placings filled by those who have travelled down under for the Cup.
Master Of Reality, who was second past the post in 2019 but later relegated to fourth, is also an international.
Even 2016 winner Almandin was bred in Germany and raced mainly in Europe prior to his triumph, with that year’s runner-up Heartbreak City a genuine raider and third-placed Hartnell (bred and raced in England) only in his second racing season as an Aussie.
There are now only two genuine internationals in the mix this year after Away He Goes was ruled out.
They are last year’s winner Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission.
Overall summary
Use the formula that has been successful over the past four years and hop on board the international train for your win bets, trifectas and first fours.
Sir Lucan ($17)
Twilight Payment ($13)
Spanish Mission ($6)
Be sure to throw in Incentivise ($2.3) just in case he’s that good.
Good luck and gamble responsibly.
Odds are with TAB at time of publishing.
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