Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Following Melbourne’s win over the Western Bulldogs on Wednesday night, the new AFL season continues with Carlton v Richmond at the MCG on Thursday night.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Blues-Tigers clash:
Richmond to kick at least 12 goals, Riewoldt to kick 2 or more
The Tigers have scored solidly in the opening round of the season against the Blues in recent years.
Since 2015, their lowest score in Round 1 has been 92 with their lowest goal tally being 14. In that time the they’ve averaged 15.8 goals across seven games, so you’d think kicking 12 or more would be a certainty.
But is this a more defensively sound Carlton under Michael Voss?
With Jacob Weitering generally keeping Tom Lynch quiet, Jack Riewoldt has often stepped up in this fixture and could do so again with Oscar McDonald or inexperienced defender Mitch McGovern the potential matchup.
Riewoldt has kicked 19 goals (eight behinds) in the last seven Round 1 encounters at an average of 2.7 goals from 3.8 shots.
He should kick two goals or more on Thursday night.
SUBSCRIBE TO THE AFL RECORD AND GET IT DELIVERED TO YOUR HOUSE EVERY WEEK.
Patrick Cripps to have 30 disposals, Corey Durdin to hit the scoreboard
Patrick Cripps has averaged 33 disposals per game against Richmond since the start of 2018 and that includes 2020’s reduced minutes contest.
Richmond don’t tend to tag midfielders and they have let Cripps run his own race for the most part.
On top of that, the Blues skipper is looking as fit as he has since 2019, after two years impacted by ongoing injury concerns. He will also carry a heavier load with Sam Walsh injured.
Corey Durdin is a name not many outside of Carlton fans would know about, but the small forward has turned heads over summer.
He played two games to finish the 2021 season and impressed with his speed and tackling pressure.
Durdin appears to be locked into the club’s best 22 going into the season and should hit the scoreboard tonight.
