There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
With six matches remaining in Round 1, we have taken a close look at each of the contests and come up with one certainty for each club involved.
Take a look at our 12 certainties for the remainder of the weekend’s action.
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Geelong v Essendon
Cameron/Hawkins/Stengle combine for six goals
It may only be Round 1, but Geelong could flex their muscles inside 50 against Essendon here, showing off a fit and firing Jeremy Cameron.
He and Hawkins will be the difference, compared to Essendon’s undermanned forward 50, and both should be too strong for Jayden Laverde and James Stewart.
Tyson Stengle will make his Geelong debut and will make teams regret overlooking him in the mid-season draft last year, showing off his skills as a small forward.
The trio will combine for six majors.
Jye Caldwell picks up 20 disposals
As for Essendon, a fit Jye Caldwell will finally get his chance to show what he can do through Essendon’s midfield.
Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel are expected to spend more time outside of the midfield, while Will Snelling is unavailable.
All this points to Caldwell finding plenty of the footy in this one.
Nic Negrepontis
GWS v Sydney
Josh Kelly to rack up 25 or more disposals
The Giants midfielder’s form this pre-season has carried on from his best and fairest winning campaign of 2021.
The new co-captain has picked up 25 or more touches in 16 of his past 19 outings and fresh off 41 against Collingwood in the AAMI Community Series, he should rack them up again.
Backing him in to get 25 or more against the Swans.
Lance Franklin to kick 3 or more goals
Buddy is a player for the big moment and a Sydney derby against the Giants with his 1000th goal in sight provides him with that stage.
He has kicked 37 goals (25 behinds) in his last 12 against the Giants, at an average of 3.08 per game, including 12 goals in three meetings last season.
Franklin is primed to kick off season 2022 with a bang and push towards his remarkable goal milestone with three or more snags on Saturday.
Andrew Slevison
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Charlie Cameron to kick three or more goals
Charlie Cameron is a barometer for Brisbane – when he’s on. The small forward brings an energy and a spark that no one else can in the Lions side. Cameron has looked sharp in the pre-season and has spoken about spending more time up the ground to use speed to shake off his opponent on the way back. The 2019 All-Australian kicked two goals, collected 20 touches and had seven score involvements in Brisbane’s AAMI Community Series hit-out against the Western Bulldogs. Cameron booted four goals in last year’s corresponding fixture against the Power.
Ollie Wines to notch 30+ disposals
The reigning Brownlow Medallist and 2021 All-Australian is a ball-magnet. Wines collected over 30 disposals on 16 occasions last year and is the heartbeat of Port Adelaide’s midfield along with veteran Travis Boak. The Power star was prolific against the Lions last year, amassing a team and game-high 37 possessions in the Round 7 loss.
Alex Zaia
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Jason Horne-Francis to kick a goal
The first pick from the 2021 AFL Draft will make his AFL debut on Sunday with the wraps of one of the best young talents the game has seen.
David Noble has already indicated the 18-year-old will spend more time forward while also receiving stints in the midfield, and he’s set to capitalise against an injury-depleted Hawthorn backline.
He kicked two of North Melbourne’s seven goals against the Swans in the club’s official practice match and is set to offer the Hawks a repeat dose at the MCG.
James Worpel to record at least 20 disposals
Worpel averaged 21 possessions a game last year as he played just about a full season, and he’s ready to go to another level in 2022.
With Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell likely underdone after dealing with injuries over the last fortnight, Worpel is set to be the major beneficiary of receiving plenty of midfield minutes.
He’ll also be well supported by youngsters Josh Ward and Connor MacDonald on the ball, but expect Worpel to go to another level this season and benefit from more more time on the ball in Round 1.
Seb Mottram
Adelaide v Fremantle
Riley O’Brien to have 40+ hitouts
With Sean Darcy not playing for Fremantle in this clash, Riley O’Brien will dominate in the ruck.
O’Brien will go up against Lloyd Meek, a player who has managed just nine senior games since being drafted to the Dockers in 2017.
O’Brien is a noted tap-ruckman and has had over 40 hitouts on six occasions in his 57 game career.
Caleb Serong to have 25+ disposals
Caleb Serong is an absolute jet.
Entering his third season, Serong has already shown that he belongs at the elite level over his first two years in the competition and is ready to make the big step this year.
He averaged 23 disposals in 2021 and against a depleted Adelaide midfield on Sunday, he should have a field day.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
West Coast v Gold Coast
Touk Miller to have 30+ disposals
Reigning best and fairest winner and 2021 All-Australian Touk Miller looks primed to pick up here he left off last season.
The 26-year-old has 32 disposals and two goals in the Suns’ AAMI Community Series win against the Cats, backing up the 31.8 disposals he averaged last year.
With West Coast’s midfield missing the likes of Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo, expect Miller to get his hand to plenty of footy at the stoppage.
Eagles engine room to struggle despite Naitanui dominance
While the Eagles have perhaps the league’s most dominant stoppage ruckman in Nic Naitanui, it’ll be a tough task for their on-ball unit to break even with the Suns with a raft of stars missing.
West Coast’s midfield will be made up of the likes of Andrew Gaff, Jack Redden, Xavier O’Neill and Sam Petrevski-Seton – hardly their best mix.
The Suns’ on-ball brigade presents as Miller, Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Lachie Weller, Brayden Fiorini and Brandon Ellis who should control ground proceedings despite Naitanui getting his hand to the ball first more often than not.
Lachlan Geleit