Carlton and Brisbane’s journey to this Preliminary Final matchup on Saturday can be tracked back a decade, where the two teams almost simultaneously began lengthy rebuilds.
For a few years, they were almost in sync with each other and they seemed to be on similar trajectories. Of course, the Lions would take off like a rocket in 2019 while the Blues remained in the wilderness for a while longer.
But it seems to have been forgotten that these teams did in fact begin this journey together – and the fruits of that will all be on full display at the Gabba on Saturday night.
Here’s how it has played out:
Pre 2015
Brisbane champion Michael Voss took over as senior coach in 2009, leading his team to a come-from-behind Elimination Final win over Carlton.
Thinking his side could contend in 2010, they made an enormous trade splash, bringing in Brendan Fevola from the Blues. In exchange, Carlton received young key defender Lachie Henderson (we promise this will be relevant later).
The Lions however did not contend in 2010, finishing 13th and only sliding further in the following seasons. Voss was sacked in 2013 and replaced by Justin Leppitsch, who was given the enormous task of taking over a poorly performing list stuck between eras.
Carlton meanwhile played finals between 2009 and 2011, before failing to meet the club’s expectations in 2012, sacking Brett Ratten for the saviour Mick Malthouse.
The Malthouse era ended in early 2015 after successive awful seasons, leaving Brendon Bolton with the enormous task of taking over a poorly performing list stuck between eras.
2015
The rebuilds truly begin here. Carlton and Brisbane both win 4 games and are separated on the ladder by 3%. The Lions beating the Bulldogs in Round 23 ultimately sees them hand pick one to Carlton.
The Blues select Jacob Weitering with pick one. Josh Schache goes to the Lions at pick two.
Carlton drafts Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, David Cuningham and Jack Silvagni – one of the best draft hauls of the 21st century.
The Lions add Schache, Eric Hipwood, Ben Keays, Rhys Mathieson and Sam Skinner.
Brisbane loses Jack Redden, James Aish and Matthew Leuenberger in the trade period. They also moved on from veterans Matt Maguire, Jed Adcock, Brent Staker, Luke McGuane among eight changes.
The Blues meanwhile moved on from Chris Judd, Andrew Carrazzo, Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell, Chris Yarran, David Ellard, Robert Warnock and seven others in a complete list overhaul.
Carlton’s drafting of Harry McKay? It was made possible by trading Lachie Henderson for what would become pick 10 in this year’s draft. Essentially, thanks to Michael Voss, the Blues turned Fevola into McKay. Vossy wouldn’t be as annoyed about that anymore.
Verdict: This draft set Carlton’s spine for a decade, while the Lions ended up with a long-term key forward, but not a whole lot else.
2016
Brisbane finishes 17th, winning 3 games. Carlton finishes 14th, winning 7 games.
The Lions end up with pick three – drafting Hugh McCluggage. They also added Jarrod Berry and Oscar McInerney, key pieces of their future success.
Carlton meanwhile went hard for depth in the trade period, though Caleb Marchbank is the only one who remains on the list.
They used pick six on Sam Petrevski-Seton, who was delisted by West Coast this year. They also selected Zac Fisher, but didn’t get much from four other draftees.
The Lions had 10 players delisted or retired, while the Blues had 12. Another year of significant overhaul for both sides.
Verdict: Ultimately, Brisbane added some huge pieces in 2016 and Carlton did not.
2017
The Lions sack Justin Leppitsch and bring in Chris Fagan. They win the wooden spoon going 5-17, while Carlton finishes 16th at 6-16.
Brisbane has the first of successive list-changing trade periods, bringing in Charlie Cameron and Luke Hodge.
Carlton was once again super active in the trade period, though Matthew Kennedy is the only one still relevant in 2023.
With pick one, the Lions drafted Cam Rayner. At 15 Zac Bailey, at 18 Brandon Starcevich and at 54 Jack Payne.
With pick three, the Blues drafted Paddy Dow. And then Lochie O’Brien with pick 10.
Tom De Koning at pick 30 saved what was otherwise a disastrous draft for the Blues when you consider they had two top 10 picks.
Verdict: All points to Brisbane following the 2017 off-season.
2018
Carlton went 2-20, finishing bottom, while Brisbane finished with five wins and finished 15th.
The Lions receive another significant boost in the trade period, bringing in Lachie Neale, Lincoln McCarthy and Marcus Adams.
They also received a bounty of picks from Collingwood for Dayne Beams and fleeced Gold Coast in a trade for future draft assets.
Carlton meanwhile added Mitch McGovern and Nic Newman, two key defensive pieces.
With pick one, the Blues brought in generational midfielder Sam Walsh, though they used pick 19 and traded a future first round pick for Liam Stocker, who was ultimately delisted.
The Lions had a quiet draft, missing on picks 21, 36, 40 and 42.
Verdict: Points again to Brisbane thanks to a stellar trade period.
2019-2023
From here, the two teams went in wildly different directions. Brisbane launched up the ladder in 2019, ultimately finishing second on the ladder. Carlton finished 16th and sacked coach Bolton.
The Lions would be genuine premiership contenders five years in a row. While Carlton improved year-on-year, they didn’t play finals until 2023.
Carlton moved on another coach in David Teague before ultimately settling on Michael Voss, who received his second chance at the top level.
The two teams started their rebuilds at almost the exact same points and remained on par until the Lions put the pieces together when Carlton did not.
Fast forward to 2023 and Brisbane has not cashed in this five-year contending run with a premiership. This year feels like the best team they have put out there and maybe their best shot to win it.
To do so, they’ll have to go through a Carlton team on an incredible three-month run of form.
Voss, who held three cups aloft for the Lions in the early 2000s, will return to the Gabba. Can they cause another finals boil-over?
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