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Predicting how far in-form De Minaur could progress in the Australian Open

a year ago

SEN tennis expert Brett Phillips thinks Australia’s Alex De Minaur can progress to the quarter-finals at the upcoming Australian Open.

De Minaur enters his home Grand Slam as the number 10 seed in the men’s singles draw and has his best shot at progressing past the fourth round at Melbourne Park for the first time.

The 24-year-old’s path to glory has been mapped out if he continues winning and continues facing his highest-ranked opponent possible.

That path sees him face former world No. 3 Milos Raonic in the first round before taking on Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi, 18th seed Nicholas Jarry and 5th seed Andrey Rublev in the fourth round.

If he progresses to the quarters, De Minaur would likely face No. 4 seed Jannik Sinner.

With the stars of the game expected to make up the final eight of the draw, that’s how far Phillips can see De Minaur progressing and he sees him taking care of Canada’s Raonic in a tricky opening match.

“I think he can at least get to the quarters if everything goes to plan,” Phillips told SEN Mornings.

“But this draw could be thrown upside down, Raonic is short of a gallop … he needs a bit of a hit out.

“But look, on his day, obviously he’s a guy is tough to break, he’s a huge guy (physically) … he's just a lump of a man, but he's had no continuity with his tennis in the last three or four years.

“But De Minaur sort of loves playing these sorts of guys where he can really dig in on the return, and once it gets into the ground battle, well De Minaur should be able a run him ragged.”

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While the Raonic match is considered a tough prospect, Phillips also thinks a likely second-round match against Italy’s Arnaldi won’t come easily.

“I'm a little worried about Matteo Arnaldi as a second-round opponent,” Phillips said.

“Probably on paper, he beats Adam Walton, the young Aussie who's going to be making his debut in the main draw.

“Arnaldi has jumped 90 spots in the last 12 months. He beat Popyrin at the Davis Cup which really set up the tie for Italy.

“He made the fourth round at the US Open … and he's hungry.”

Even though De Minaur will likely face fellow-seeded opponents from the third round onward, Phillips can see the Aussie making it past the round of 16 if all goes to plan.

“Nicholas Jarry (is his likely) third round (opponent), I mean he beat Jarry at the US Open last year,” Phillips said.

“Like Raonic, he’s a guy that’s big in stature and they’re tough to return.

“Rublev (is his likely) fourth-round matchup, Andre's still there in the top 10.

“He's been there for a while but can’t get past the quarter-finals.”

On paper, Phillips can’t see De Minaur getting past the quarters if he draws Sinner given that he has an 0-6 record against the star Italian.

“Sinner would be when I look at it all on paper (where I’d say De Minaur would be knocked out),” Phillips said.

“Rublev would be tough, and Sinner’s obviously in scintillating form right now, he's had the better of De Minaur in their previous meetings.

“That's where we're expecting Alex to be if he's good enough.

“He's on the right trajectory, a fourth-round or quarter-final is where he should be.”

Check out De Minaur’s potential path to glory below.

1R: Milos Raonic (CAN)
2R: Matteo Arnaldi (ITA)
3R: Nicholas Jarry (18 - CHI)
4R: Andrey Rublev (5)
QF: Jannik Sinner (4 - ITA)
SF: Novak Djokovic (1 - SER)
F: Carlos Alcaraz (2 - ESP)

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