Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 8

Round 8 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with one of the most stacked fixture lists across the year.

Three massive derbies, two top four matchups, the old enemies and more... it does not get much better than this.

We kick off in Adelaide with the 55th edition of the Showdown on Thursday night, with Carlton and Collingwood putting the city of Melbourne on hold on Friday night.

With all of that in mind, see our tips and predictions for Round 8 below.

Adelaide v Port Adelaide

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The first prime time standalone Showdown and it could barely come at a better time.

Both Adelaide and the Power sit at 27 wins apiece against each other, with the Crows chasing three consecutive Showdowns for the first time under Nicks. And there’s arguably been no game Nicks has wanted to win more than this Round 8 Showdown.

His team is showing signs of recovering after a very slow start to 2024, but finals will continue to slip away with every loss. What better way to spark the entire football club to life and change the fortunes of the season than another Showdown win?

They’ve been handed the conditions to do it as well. Port Adelaide kept St Kilda at arm’s length for much of last week’s 10-point loss, but it came at the expense of Aliir Aliir (concussion) and Sam Powell-Pepper (knee) missing this week, with the latter also out for the season.

Captain Connor Rozee finished the game with ice strapped to his hamstring, but the Power advised on Tuesday that the 24-year-old was available to play.

A Showdown Medalist in 2022, his inclusion may swing the clash back in favour of the Power. But his opposite number is just as important, with Crows skipper Jordan Dawson hitting form in the last fortnight.

A dual-Showdown Medalist already, Dawson has recorded 20 inside 50s and 17 score involvements across Rounds 6 and 7, finding his damage once again.

He’ll be eager to go to another level on Thursday night and while Adelaide is a spluttering outfit at the moment, expect multiple teammates to go with him.

Tip: Adelaide by 5 points.

Seb Mottram

Carlton v Collingwood

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – MCG

Carlton landed the moral victory when losing to Geelong by 13 points last week with a whole host of best 22 players out injured.

Collingwood settled for a draw in another Anzac Day classic against Essendon.

As a result, the Magpies remained 10th and the Blues slipped to sixth, making this a fairly important and intriguing Friday night fixture.

It will no doubt be an enormous crowd at the MCG to see two Melbourne powerhouses go at it in a crunch clash.

The Blues won in Round 20 last year, but the Pies had won three prior and have saluted in eight of the last 10.

In that late-season triumph, Charlie Curnow turned it on with six goals to further enhance his record against the Pies. He has kicked 15.9 from 24 scoring shots in his last four and 23 in eight across his career. He poses a major threat yet again.

Both teams have been conceding early goals in the last few weeks. The Pies have copped six in each of their last two first terms. The Blues have conceded five, four and four in their last three opening terms, kicking 2.8 last week, plus five and five themselves.

Although Carlton has enough first-team players sidelined by injury, the Pies will be forced to deal with some of their own. Their midfield will be weakened by the absences of Jordan De Goey (hamstring) and Tom Mitchell (foot).

That scenario ever so slightly gives the nod to the Blues who need to create ample forward 50 entries to kick a winning score.

In the last 14 games between these two teams, the biggest margin has been 29 points. In that time the average margin has been 18 points, so we’re certainly not expecting a blowout.

It will be a hard-fought and no doubt dramatic contest with ebbs and flows, but the Blues are arguably playing the better footy of the two sides and narrowly get the nod.

Tip: Carlton by 9 points.

Andrew Slevison

Sydney Swans v GWS 

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – SCG

Round 8’s ‘Battle of the Bridge’ could loom as a genuine Grand Final preview with both teams sitting 6-1 through seven games.

These cross-town rivals enter the game in hot form, but forecasted wet weather threatens to turn the game into a contested slog.

At this stage, up to 40mm of rain could bucket down on the Harbour City on Saturday. Who will that favour? It looms as the big question with not much splitting the sides otherwise.

It might just be GWS, with their game built more on ground ball gets and contested possessions than the Swans, who love to use the ball by foot and control the game with marks.

In saying this, the Swans will be buoyed by the return of Luke Parker and an on-ball unit including him, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner definitely won’t shy away from rough and tough footy.

The Giants also welcome back Toby Greene from suspension and Sam Taylor from concussion in this game, perhaps their two best players.

It’s a genuine 50-50 this one, but with the inclement weather forecast and Sydney’s tendency to try and control the air, GWS could have the advantage.

Either way, expect a close game, these battles seem to often play out in exciting fashion.

Also, to John Longmire and Adam Kinglsey, can we please get a traditional 1v1 midfield battle between Isaac Heeney and Tom Green?

Tip: GWS by 5 points.

Lachlan Geleit

St Kilda v North Melbourne

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

A must-win game for two sides currently residing in the bottom five.

St Kilda were a wildcard entering 2024, looking to potentially sneak into the eight, however after seven games sit 14th with just two wins.

The Saints put up a good fight against Port Adelaide last Friday night, falling by just 10 points… but the stats would argue very differently. The Power beat out the Saints in every single major team stat, with St Kilda finishing -38 in disposals, -7 in inside 50’s, -4 in clearances, -21 in contested possessions, -25 in marks, -28 in tackles and -10 in scoring shots.

With that, Ross Lyon and his men will have to take a dive into the details and correct them as soon as possible. Sitting 2-5, already two games behind the top eight, the Saints will be desperate to get it right, and with the likely return of forward Max King, they won’t have a better chance than this Saturday.

With a favourable fixture run, they must make a statement in their next two games, taking on the winless North Melbourne and 17th placed Hawks to truly kickstart what they hope to be a push for September footy.

As for North Melbourne, they find themselves rock bottom with seven losses from seven games. Could they finally find a result?

In their last matchup against the Saints, the Kangaroos finished just eight points behind the eventual finalists, losing 69-61 in a game where the ‘Roos led as late as 12 minutes into the final term.

The Kangaroos are off to an 0-7 start, their worst start since… 2021. It seems as though their last three years of rebuilding have fallen flat, but it might not be too late to make something of 2024.

A result this weekend may give the young Kangaroos a hit of confidence ahead of their clash with Gold Coast next week, the last club that North Melbourne were able to beat in the final round of 2023. Back-to-back results?... Unlikely.

Tip: St Kilda by 41 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

Melbourne v Geelong

Saturday - 7:30 AEST – MCG

The hits just keep coming this round, with Saturday night seeing the top two Victorian teams face off at the MCG.

The undefeated Geelong have overcome every single challenge thrown their way this season and are fresh off their most impressive victory yet, taking down the Blues in Round 7.

They’ll have another tough task on their hands, facing off against a Melbourne side that looks in good shape to make another deep finals push.

The Demons are coming off the back of an absolute scrap fight against the Tigers last week, claiming a win against a club that seemed hell-bent on making the contest as ugly as possible.

While things will certainly look cleaner this week than in that matchup, expect the affair to be just as hard-fought, with Geelong and Melbourne stacking up as two of the best defensive sides in the competition.

The Cats will welcome Tom Stewart back into the backline to strengthen their already dominant defence, however will rue the loss of skipper Patrick Dangerfield, especially when facing off against such a lauded midfield.

Melbourne will have the clear advantage through the middle but will undoubtedly have trouble on the attack, with their forward line simply being outclassed by the calibre of Geelong’s defence.

With the Cats playing at such an impressive level it’s hard to go against them in any matchup, however the Demons will certainly push them to the limit in what will be a gritty, high-pressure affair.

Tip: Geelong by 9 points.

Jack Makeham

West Coast v Essendon

Saturday - 8:10pm AEST – Optus Stadium

The Bombers travel out west to take on the Eagles in what may prove to be a tighter contest than most would assume.

In their intense ANZAC day draw with the Pies, Essendon played a very strong brand of football, looking the better side against the reigning premiers for a large portion of the day.

They dominated the clearance battle 40-23, were +78 in total disposals and +23 in marks, holding the lead for more than three quarters of the total game time.

If Kyle Langford was able to slot his set shot in the dying moments, the Bombers would have the four points they somewhat deserved.

While Essendon have had a very strong start to 2024, the Eagles have been significantly better than a majority of the footy world would have predicted.

Despite a rough start, West Coast’s last four games have showed signs of a very good team in the making, going 2-2 and leading at the main break against both Sydney and Gold Coast.

Harley Reid has stolen all the headlines over the course of his debut season, and for good reason, but there are a number of Eagles that have seen a huge jump in 2024.

Jake Waterman looks like a man possessed in the forward half and is poised for the matchup with Ben McKay. Elliot Yeo is playing his best footy and should arguably be in a number of discussions surrounding the top players in the competition right now. Jeremy McGovern is doing what Jeremy McGovern does…

The midfield battle is set up to be one of the best of the year so far, and the match ups all over the ground are far more even than you’d initially expect.

Last time they met, the Bombers held on to win by just a single point despite holding the lead for most of the day.

Can the Eagles find a third win at Optus Stadium this season?

Tip: Essendon by 14 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

Richmond v Fremantle

Sunday - 1:00pm AEST – MCG

Richmond enters this Sunday afternoon fixture off the back of a 43-point loss to Melbourne where they were more than competitive for almost three quarters.

Fremantle got back on there winners’ list by beating the Bulldogs by 24 points in Perth in Round 7. It was a much-needed result after three straight defeats.

The fact that this match is at the MCG would hold no fears for the Dockers who have three of their last five at the venue, including two big wins over Melbourne.

They get a Tigers side that is devoid of a lot of senior players with the likes of Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch and Noah Balta, plus a few more, sidelined.

One major issue facing Adem Yze is a somewhat makeshift forward line that has been unable to hit the scoreboard regularly enough across 2024, and in the last three weeks in particular. The Tigers have averaged just 57 points in those three consecutive defeats and are the second lowest scoring side in the AFL so far.

What makes that scenario even more difficult for Richmond is that Freo boasts the third measliest defence (conceding an average of 70 points per game) in the league.

Where do the Tigers get their goals from? Shai Bolton leads the way with 15, so you can pencil him in for one or two, but next on the list is Liam Baker (7), Mykelti Lefau (7) and Maurice Rioli (6). It doesn’t scream a winning score.

The Tigers are also down on quality midfielders so expect the likes of Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Nat Fyfe to get busy in the middle and dominate clearance.

It’s hard to trust the Dockers, who have a fondness for swiftly mixing their form, but it’s just hard to see them not being able to stymy Richmond’s undermanned attack.

The expected return of Jye Amiss, plus Josh Treacy, Luke Jackson and co. should create enough headaches for Richmond’s defence, and although the Tigers will likely be competitive for large portions, they just lack the star power.

On the flip side, the Dockers have enough good players playing well enough to see this one out.

Tip: Fremantle by 16 points.

Andrew Slevison

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

Sunday - 4:00pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Bulldogs will host the struggling Hawks on Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium.

Both teams head into this fixture fresh off Round 7 defeats with the Bulldogs losing to Fremantle by 24 points away from home before the Hawks got completely dismantled by Sydney at the MCG to the beat of 76 points.

Historically an even match-up, Luke Beveridge's Bulldogs head into this game as the heavy favourites despite an inconsistent start to the year for the frequently underfire Dogs.

Tipping the Bulldogs with any confidence is nearly impossible but when you compare the two teams on Sunday, you'd think that surely they make light work of the Hawks.

Cody Weightman will make way after undergoing surgery on his dislocated elbow leaving the door open for Beveridge to get experimental at the selection table (not that he needs any encouragement).

As for the Hawks, they've had a dreadful first seven games this year with their only win coming against the helpless Kangaroos.

They'll be without Mitch Lewis and Mabior Chol which leaves you wondering where their goals will come from with veteran Jack Gunston and youngster Max Ramsden the likely key forwards on Sunday.

Tipping the star power in the Bulldogs line-up to be too good for the young Hawks and to chalk their fourth win of the year and edge closer to the top eight.

Tip: Bulldogs by 38 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Brisbane v Gold Coast       

Sunday - 7:10pm AEST – Gabba 

Another cross-town rivalry to finish off Round 8. This time Brisbane host Gold Coast in the Q-Clash at the Gabba.

While the Lions have dominated the rivalry in recent years, winning nine of their last 10 against the Suns including the last five at the Gabba – their form in 2024 has left a lot to be desired.

Every week we’ve expected the 2023 Grand Finalists to turn it around, but they find themselves 2-5 and now it’s genuinely last-chance saloon stuff to make anything of their campaign.

With the draw opening up for them in the next month, a win here could springboard their season. That’ll be easier said than done though against a Gold Coast team that’s vastly improved under Damien Hardwick.

While the 4-3 Suns have been inconsistent in 2024, they’ve shown that their best is pretty frightening as the young midfield begins to dominate games.

There’s no doubt that they’ll have the on-ball unit and forward line to cause Brisbane some genuine headaches, but the question will probably be if their defence can hold up the likes of Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner, Eric Hipwood, Zak Bailey and others at the Gabba … if they can draw even with them in this part of the ground, they win.

While we’ve tipped Brisbane despite their form on multiple occasions this year, they’ve just about lost all trust now.

No doubt this will be the game that they begin to turn it around … though.

Tip: Gold Coast by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit