The 14 certainties for the rest of Round 8

Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the seven remaining games in Round 8.

Sydney versus GWS

Papley to kick at least one goal

Sydney small forward Tom Papley has kicked 11 goals in 2024 from seven games and has only gone goalless once.

Don’t expect that to happen for a second time on Saturday.

Papley loves the big stage and will no doubt be up and about for the rivalry clash.

Given that the weather is set to be seriously wet too, plenty of goals will come from ground level, where Papley does his best work.

Green to gather 30+ disposals

Tom Green loves playing against Sydney.

The star midfielder picked up 34.5 disposals in his last two games against the Swans last year and he’ll hope to pick up similar numbers again.

Green has also passed the 30-touch marker in five out of seven games in 2024.

In wet, contested conditions, Green should thrive and continue his hot form up on the SCG.

30+ is usually a big ask, but not for Green in this game.

Lachlan Geleit

St Kilda versus North Melbourne

King to boot 2+ goals

If Max King doesn’t kick two or more goals on Saturday, he never will.

The star Saint returns from injury against a Roos outfit that concedes goals for fun and frequently gives up big scores to one opposition key forward.

King showed plenty to start the year, but expect his teammates to look for him under the roof and get King’s season up and running.

He kicked six goals in his three non-injury-impacted games this year and booted three majors last time he played the Kangaroos.

Sheezel to collect 25+ possessions

Harry Sheezel is simply the only Roo who can be counted on at the moment.

In a dire season so far for his club, Sheezel has done as he’s pleased and racked up at least 26 disposals in every game this season.

He also takes the Lion's share of kickouts at North Melbourne. There’s nothing to suggest this is the game he slows down and he torched the Saints last time these two sides met in what was only his 8th AFL game.

Seb Mottram

Melbourne versus Geelong

Petracca to gather 25+ possessions and 5+ clearances

The Melbourne superstar has been in fine form this year and is coming off a demolishment of the Cats midfield last time these two sides clashed.

Christian Petracca gathered 33 touches and 10 clearances in Round 15, 2023, against Geelong and is primed for a similar performance.

Mark O’Connor is Geelong’s defensive cooler, but he’s been rested this weekend. Geelong also gives up the most contested possessions and clearances in the competition.

Petracca’s had over 25 possessions on four occasions this year and a similar effort looms on Saturday night.

Stengle to kick multiple shots at goal

The 2022 All-Australian has rediscovered his best form to start the season and looms as the most difficult matchup for a stingy Demons defence on Saturday night.

Tyson Stengle has kicked multiple goals in four of his last five games and – unlike his teammates – doesn’t appear to have a Demon earmarked for him.

Jake Lever and Steven May will patrol the skies, while Judd McVee looks the third tall. Stengle plays differently to a typical small forward and has been getting higher and higher up the ground before working back, making him an opposition coach’s nightmare.

A player who gets better on the big state, and one playing for a new contract, he’d love a big performance at the ‘G.

Seb Mottram

West Coast versus Essendon

Harley Reid 18+ disposals and a goal

After receiving a week off to rest, receiving a week off to rest, the Rising Star favourite will be chomping at the bit to come back firing on Saturday night.

Reid has seemingly improved every week so far in his young campaign, averaging 21 touches and kicking five goals across his last three games.

Facing off against a Bombers side that isn’t know for their defensive pressure, the young gun should have plenty of opportunity to continue his strong maiden campaign.

Kyle Langford boots 2+ goals

Kyle Langford is on track to top his career-best 51-goal haul from last season.

The Bombers forward has kicked 17 goals through Essendon’s first seven games, with his Round 4 display against the Power marking the only occasion this season in which he hasn’t booted multiple majors.

Even though they’re no longer looking like the pushover side of the last two seasons, the Eagles are still far from a sound defensive product.

Expect Langford to shine over at Optus Stadium.

Jack Makeham

Richmond versus Fremantle

D.Rioli to have 20+ disposals

Daniel Rioli has been one of Richmond’s most consistent performers in recent weeks.

He had 23 disposals in last week’s loss to Melbourne, making it the fourth time he has hit the 20-touch mark from seven matches in 2024.

His record against Fremantle over the years isn’t flash (averaging 15.8 disposals), but much of that time was spent as a small forward.

If the Tigers are a chance of winning, Rioli must provide plenty of run and carry so we’re with him to pick up at least 20 touches at the MCG.

Serong to have 25+ disposals, 5+ clearances

Caleb Serong is one of the most prolific midfielders in the AFL in 2024.

He averages over 32 disposals and more than eight clearances, and against the Dogs last weekend he filled up with 37 touches and a remarkable 17 clearances.

He has loved playing against Richmond over the course of his career, averaging 25 touches and over five clearances across four games.

Given the Tigers remain thin in the midfield, Serong could feast at the ‘G on Sunday and we’re with him to get a fair bit of the ball.

The 23-year-old should have at the very least 25 disposals and five clearances, and could quit easily tip over the 30-disposal mark.

Andrew Slevison

Western Bulldogs versus Hawthorn

Darcy to kick 2+ goals

Following a three-goal outing last weekend, developing tall forward Sam Darcy will be looking to continue that form against Hawthorn.

In recent weeks, key forwards from opposing teams have capitalised on a weakened Hawks defence, with Logan McDonald and Nick Larkey each netting three goals in the past fortnight.

With the inclusion of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and the hot form of Aaron Naughton, Darcy will be left with the third tall defender and we are confident that he will be able to convert at least two goals on Sunday afternoon.

Amon to collect 20+ disposals

Hawthorn’s Karl Amon has been prolific on the wing in a season in which Sam Mitchell’s men have largely struggled.

With an average of 21 disposals this season, Amon must be able to outshine the Bulldogs' wingmen, namely James Harmes and Bailey Williams, both of whom the former Port Adelaide recruit should have the edge over.

His 32 disposals against Luke Beveridge’s side last year was his season high and we expect him to gather at least 20 on the weekend.  

Harry Attiwill

Brisbane versus Gold Coast

__McCluggage to have 25+ disposals and 5+ score involvements

Despite Brisbane’s early season woes, Hugh McCluggage has been a beacon of consistency through the initial seven games.

The former wingman has matched teammate Josh Dunkley’s disposal output this season, and is one disposal short of reigning Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale, who will all be required to perform against the stellar midfield that the Suns possess.

McCluggage averages 25 disposals and six score involvements on the season and we expect him to hit that around that marker in an absolute must-win fixture for the Lions.

__Rowell to have 15+ contested possessions and 8+ tackles

Undoubtedly the best inside midfielder in the league this year, Matt Rowell has been instrumental to Gold Coast's success through the middle of the park.

The former No.1 draft pick has amassed the above stat line in five out of the seven games this year, and a fixture against the Lions mandates hard-nosed footy which should see Rowell thrive in these areas.

Recording 13 and 12 tackles respectively over the last two weeks and averaging 18 contested possessions on the season, we expect Rowell to easily hit this marker.

Harry Attiwill

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