Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 9

Round 9 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us, and calling this run-in a finals preview is an understatement.

First versus sixth, second versus seventh, third versus fifth and fourth versus eighth... who said the eight were reserved for September?

We kick off at the 'G as the Blues face the Demons in an semi-final rematch, followed by a double header on Friday night, with the Cats hosting the Power and the Dockers challenging the Swans out west.

With all of that in mind, see our tips and predictions for Round 9 below.

Carlton v Melbourne

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

What a matchup we have for the first time these teams have met since last year’s thrilling Semi-Final.

Much like 2023, the 5-3 Blues and 6-2 Dees are incredibly evenly matched with both sides looking like genuine contenders that are close to becoming the competition’s best.

There’s elite head-to-heads all over the ground, with two midfields full of contested beasts while the Dees might have the players to stop Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay in Steven May and Jake Lever.

Given how well these sides match up on each other, they almost cancel out their strengths and as a result neither team has scored over 80 in these battles since 2021. So expect a low-scoring rock fight.

On top of that, five of the last seven games head-to-head between the Dees and Blues have been decided by a goal or less.

You’d expct something similar to happen this time, with the tip only with Melbourne given they’re in slightly better form at the moment as Carlton have dropped three of their last four games.

Drop a fourth out of five here, and they’ll be back to the pack.

It’s a huge game for the Blues, and there’s no doubt they can get it done. It’s about as close to a 50-50 as you’ll find … but the Demons are deserved slight favourites at the moment.

Tip: Melbourne by 5 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Geelong v Port Adelaide

Friday - 7:10pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium

Geelong returns to the comfort of home after a season-first loss at the hands of Melbourne.

Chris Scott admitted his best players were “a bit off” in their eight-point loss.

Port Adelaide also enters this after a Showdown defeat to Adelaide.

The Power erred in playing captain Connor Rozee, who will miss this clash, while they were inaccurate in returning 5.18 in their 30-point defeat.

Remarkably, this fixture is one of four top-eight clashes in the AFL in Round 9.

The fact it is being played at GMHBA Stadium gives the Cats a major advantage given they haven’t lost to the Power at the venue since 2007. They’ve won nine in a row over Port at home.

Cats champion Tom Hawkins is enduring the most barren goal streak of his career, without a major in four matches. His mate Jeremy Cameron

Hawkins plays his 355th game for Geelong, equalling the club record set by his former captain and premiership teammate Joel Selwood. Interestingly enough, when Selwood equalled Corey Enright’s previous record of 332 games, the Cats lost to the Power in the 2021 Qualifying Final. That was Hawkins’ 300th AFL game.

But you just get the feeling history will not repeat for the Cats who are highly unlikely to drop this one on a big occasion at home.

They are the fourth highest scoring side in the league right now, with Port being the sixth, but the Cats are better equipped defensively.

Ken Hinkley’s Power will be desperate to bounce back after losing two of their last three which has them precariously placed on the edge of the eight.

However, the Cats are a pretty proud group who don’t like losing at home and they should be good enough to see this one out.

Tip: Geelong by 17 points.

Andrew Slevison

Fremantle v Sydney Swans 

Friday - 8:30pm AEST – Optus Stadium

After dethroning Geelong for top spot in Round 8, the Sydney Swans face a tough test if they are to keep it longer than a week when they come up against Fremantle in Perth.

John Longmire’s Swans have surged to the top of early premiership calculations courtesy of their efforts over the first two months of season 2024, with last week’s 29-point win over crosstown rivals GWS the most impressive.

But arguably their toughest test of the year comes against the Dockers this weekend. Sydney travelled for Gather Round and has thrice played at the MCG this year, but are yet to face a challenger of this calibre on the road in 2024.

And a challenge the Dockers will be. Bouncing back in the past fortnight after three consecutive losses prior, Justin Longmuir’s side is the second hardest in the competition for scoring against while simultaneously giving up less clearances and contested footy than any other club.

To beat the Dockers, teams have to be patient for periods and go to work in the middle.

Elliott Yeo and Harley Reid got them in the middle in Fremantle’s Round 6 derby loss and Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney present even more star power as a midfield duo.

If they can dominate the likes of Dockers stars Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw in the middle, Sydney would expect to kick a score that Fremantle can’t go with. But if it’s a scrap and the Dockers can be patient, expect the home fans to have plenty to say late in the game.

Tip: Fremantle by 10 points.

Seb Mottram

Hawthorn v St Kilda

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – University of Tasmania Stadium

Can the Hawks make it back-to-back upsets and finally build some momentum?

Hawthorn was excellent last week, taking advantage of a defensively lax Bulldogs unit to claim a stunning victory, just their second of the season.

Meanwhile St Kilda was given a reprieve from their run of tough opponents, ending a three-game slide with a confident win over North Melbourne.

Just barely staying afloat with a 3-5 record, the Saints will be grateful to be facing off against a bottom-three team for the second-straight week, the perfect opportunity to get their season back on track.

However they will be without their equal leading goalkicker Jack Higgins once again, with the livewire serving a suspension, and their 13th-ranked offence will have even more trouble as a result.

The Hawks aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse either, sitting 16th in average points per game, and facing off against a staunch St Kilda defence is going to cause even more trouble for Sam Mitchell.

Hawthorn was able to get their attack into gear against the Bulldogs, but Ross Lyon’s structure is a completely different beast, and it should have no trouble shutting down the Hawks.

It might not be pretty, but the Saints should be more than capable of grinding out a win down in Tassie.

Tip: St Kilda by 22 points.

Jack Makeham

Essendon v GWS Giants

Saturday - 4:35 AEST – Marvel Stadium

After eight games, Essendon sits fifth on the ladder and only 1.5 wins off first. Are they the real deal? This clash with GWS will be a big test. The Bombers, on expected score, have only actually come out on top once this year.

The Giants meanwhile have lost two games in a row, going down to Sydney and Carlton – two teams who will likely be on their level this year.

These two teams met in Round 23 last year, both teams playing to keep their finals hopes alive. GWS won that game by 126 points, with Jesse Hogan booting nine.

The Dons were running out of steam, the Giants were peaking and this is a new year.

GWS will be hoping Stephen Coniglio and Tom Green can both get through training and play, giving them a full-strength midfield for the first time this year.

Essendon beat GWS earlier in 2023 at Marvel Stadium, kicking 11.22 to 11.9 and holding on late, but the Giants have otherwise had the wood in the matchup, winning five of their last six.

Expect a fast game under the roof. The question will be whether Essendon can kick a winning score on a fully fit GWS backline, while up the other end Jesse Hogan versus Ben McKay could decide proceedings.

Tip: GWS by 9 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Richmond v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

Two teams desperate to find a win, headlining a double header on Saturday night.

With just one win between the two clubs in the last five weeks, desperate times are approaching for the two Melbourne sides.

The Bulldogs are looking up into the eight, already eight points behind the cut off following back-to-back losses against Fremantle and Hawthorn.

Looking over their list, the Dogs should not find themselves falling behind for too long. With Marcus Bontempelli displaying his talent week-in week-out, Tom Liberatore in career best form despite having no luck with concussion, and the likes of Bailey Dale, Tim English and Adam Treloar playing good footy, their ability should begin to get them over the line.

The Dogs lead the league in disposals and marks and sit fifth in the competition for goals per game, however their ability to defend as a unit has been poor. Over their weekend clash against Hawthorn, the Hawks were able to transition and find options in the forward half was too easy, and the Dogs’ inability to hold the lead late was disappointing.

Their clearance game, which has been their major game-winning factor in past years, has dropped to ninth in the competition.

If they want to be taken seriously in 2024, they will need to come out and make a statement over the lowly Tigers, and they can start in the centre of the park. Richmond sit dead last in clearances, averaging 27.8 per game, 5.5 behind Hawthorn in 17th.

As for the Tigers, it’s been far from a season to remember.

Winless since their Round 3 scalping over the Swans, 17th on the ladder with a hefty injury list heading into Round 9.

Richmond will be without the likes of Jacob Hopper (hamstring) for a few more weeks, while Tim Taranto (wrist), Jack Ross (foot) and Tom Lynch (hamstring) are looking to the latter stages of 2024 for their return.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Tiges. Noah Balta, Dion Prestia and Jack Graham are all a test heading into this weekend, which could prove to be a game-changer.

There was not a whole lot you could take away from Richmond’s 54-point loss against Fremantle, aside from Mykelti Lefau looking entirely comfortable at AFL level. While relying on a first-year player is never ideal, Lefau will need to continue his strong form in the forward half in Lynch’s absence if the Tigers want any chance at a win in the coming weeks.

The Bulldogs won both clashes against the Tigers in 2023, and with the pressure mounting on the Dogs and Luke Beveridge, desperation could prove the difference on Saturday night.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 38 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

Gold Coast v North Melbourne

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – TIO Stadium

The last time these teams met, North Melbourne came from 28 points down to embarrass Gold Coast in Round 24, beating them by six goals, ending their 20-game losing stream and inadvertently costing themselves pick one and Harley Reid.

Only a few months on, we’re largely expecting the exact opposite result.

This game takes place at TIO Stadium in Darwin, which is a win for the Roos given Gold Coast has looked like a top four team at Carrara so far this year.

However, these two teams met in Darwin in 2022, with the Suns winning by 62 points.

The Kangaroos feel a mile off the rest of the competition right now. Their backline is being held together by sticky tape having conceded 196 more points than the next lowest team. The Roos have somehow conceded 435 more points than Melbourne after eight games.

This Gold Coast team will smell blood in the water. They smacked Hawthorn 109-56 at home in Round 5 and a similar drubbing feels likely here.

Tip: Gold Coast by 67 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Collingwood v West Coast

Sunday - 1:00pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Collingwood hasn’t lost since Round 2, and they won’t expect to drop this one against West Coast at Marvel.

Both sides enter this game with some serious injury woes. The Pies are without much of their starting forward line with all of Brody Mihocek, Lachie Schultz, Beau McCreery and Dan McStay sidelined, while the Eagles have lost Elliott Yeo and Jake Waterman.

That duo for the Eagles have probably been the main reason behind their recent resurgence and there’s no doubt they’ll feel their loss.

West Coast’s main strength has been at the stoppage, and up against a Collingwood side without Tom Mitchell and Jordan De Goey, they’ll hope to exploit that.

Their only other path to victory is by completely dominating the air defensively against an undermanned Pies forward line.

Unfortunately for the Eagles though, Collingwood’s game is in some seriously good order otherwise and they’ll back their system against a genuine bottom-four side no matter what soldiers they have at their disposal.

With the result looking like Collingwood, a heap of eyes will be on the Nick Daicos v Harley Reid battle.

If Daicos gets going, he’ll put himself right into the Brownlow race. If Reid has a great game, he’ll continue running away with the Rising Star.

It’ll be box office viewing in a team v team mismatch.

Tip: Collingwood by 34 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Adelaide v Brisbane      

Sunday - 4:00pm AEST – Gabba 

Brisbane travel down south to take on the Adelaide Crows in what could be a season defining eight-point clash for both clubs.

Adelaide have successfully turned their season around over their last two fixtures, dominating North Melbourne before claiming their third straight Showdown win over Port Adelaide on Thursday night.

With three wins from four, and their only loss coming in controversial fashion against the Bombers, the Crows are showing signs of a top eight side that many predicted entering 2024.

The move of young gun Jake Soligo into the midfield being a potentially season saving decision, as the kid took out the Showdown medal following his 28 disposal, 10 tackle performance.

While the midfield and big forward names have taken the majority of the plaudits thus far, Adelaide’s back half performances over the last four weeks have been superb. Despite their youth and inexperience, the likes of Mark Keane, Max Michelanney, Josh Worrell and Luke Nankervis have performed well above expectations.

Over the last five games, the Crows rank fourth in the competition for goals against, with 10.2 goals against per game, while also sitting in fifth for goals scored with 13.4 a game.

Brisbane head into the clash off the back of a win against the odds, claiming a strong victory over the Gold Coast Suns despite losing four players to injury before half time.

Brandon Starcevich (calf) went down in the warmup, followed by Lincoln McCarthy (ACL) in the first quarter, with Noah Answerth (concussion) and Darcy Gardiner (ACL) both falling in the second term, yet the Lions rallied together, holding firm to claim a comfortable 34-point win.

Their 37 clearances propelled the club to No.1 in total clearances for 2024, isolated as the only team to average 40+ per game at 40.3. With the Crows in third at 38.5 per game, we’re set for an intense clash at the centre of Adelaide Oval.

Josh Dunkley had a phenomenal performance, holding Matt Rowell to 16 touches and four tackles, while also holding the competition's clearance leader to just two clearances for the game. Given the intensity of this midfield matchup, there is every chance Dunkley is handed the Soligo task.

Brisbane will have to nullify Adelaide’s ability to transition the ball from the back half into scores, however with significant injuries, away from home, it’s hard to see the Crows losing this one.

Tip: Adelaide by 25 points.

Jaiden Sciberras