Reassessing your AFL club’s expectations after 10 rounds

After 10 rounds of the season, there is plenty to ponder.

Prior to the campaign we all had an opinion of where a team would finish or what they would achieve in 2024.

Having witnessed almost half the season, and with a fair body of work to evaluate, it is time to recalibrate or reassess where we see each of the 18 AFL clubs.

Read our thoughts below:

What we thought: The consensus was that the Crows would make the leap from the cusp of finals to genuine top eight side in 2024, especially given the controversial finish to their 2023 season. Adelaide was generally considered this year’s leading contender to be a breakout team.

What we think now: Things quickly changed for the Crows following their 0-4 start. They went from top eight fancy to what looked like another year in the bottom half. They’ve been better since, knocking off Carlton and Port Adelaide, but leaving their 50-50 battles with Brisbane and Collingwood with only two premiership points makes a finals push hard.

Nic Negrepontis

What we thought: Most considered the Lions to be a top four team and that anything less another Grand Final appearance could be classed as a failure. They were so close to winning the flag last year and it was the general consensus that they would again contend in 2024. Many markets had the Lions as flag favourites before the season kicked off.

What we think now: After a torrid beginning to the campaign, simply making finals is now the goal for Chris Fagan’s side. They have to focus on getting their game up and going, work out how to cover for their injured players, then bank enough wins to make the eight. If all goes to plan, they can unleash from there. But there’s plenty of work to do.

Andrew Slevison

What we thought: Carlton was a hard team to predict coming into this season, given the rollercoaster that was their 2023 campaign. Of course, they rebounded from the bottom four to make a Preliminary Final and the general consensus was they would be among the contenders in 2024 if everything went to plan.

What we think now: Carlton somehow sits 10th despite being 6-4. Expectations haven’t changed for the Blues, but they have been derailed by injuries to this point in the season. If they can get through this brutal fixture stretch, the draw opens up and they have the tools to still make a run at a top four finish.

Nic Negrepontis

What we thought: Coming off a premiership, expectations were sky high again for Collingwood in 2024. With the off-season addition of Lachie Schultz and natural improvement expected from the likes of the Daicos brothers, Isaac Quaynor, Bobby Hill, Beau McCreery as well as Fin Macrae and Reef McInnes - top four and flag contention was the absolute minimum anyone would have expected … as long as the older brigade could stay near their best.

What we think now: While their 0-3 start and apparent early fall-off from those veterans had many writing off Collingwood in March, they’ve since recovered to 6-1-3 and fifth on the ladder while looking one of the best teams in it. Nick Daicos may have gone to another level again somehow, while the Pies also haven’t been defeated since Round 2. They’re incredibly banged up at the moment, but if they get key soldiers back and keep in touch with the top four, this side can win the flag again. They just look - like everyone else - a length off Sydney at the moment who are charging.

Lachlan Geleit

What we thought: Essendon came into 2024 among a swathe of teams competing for finals, but not necessarily expected to claim a spot in the top eight. The defensive prowess of a Brad Scott-coached team was likely to improve but how much the club’s four recruits from last year’s trade and free agency period could improve the Bombers was unclear.

What we think now: Scott’s men have proved they know how to win the close games they arguably haven’t deserved to and now anything less than finals is a significant failure. The Bombers’ percentage and ladder position is at a significant contrast and they’re not yet playing as a top four team. But wins against St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide and most recently GWS showcase that Essendon is good enough to play in September, should this form keep up.

Seb Mottram

What we thought: Coming off a 14th-placed finish in 2023, Fremantle’s 2024 prospects didn’t look great, particularly as they lost Lachie Schultz in the trade period. The Dockers were plagued by stifled ball movement and a defensive game style in 2023, which was a big concern after finishing fifth just the year prior. Many felt this team was stuck in the sand if they continued to play footy the same way under Justin Longmuir, while some even predicted the coach would be sacked at some stage in 2024 as a result.

What we think now: The Dockers are certainly better than many thought and are a legitimate finals contender in 2024. While Fremantle still doesn’t have a high-powered offence (13th in the AFL) and is defensively sound (2nd for points against), they have quickened up their ball movement with the likes of Josh Treacy (20 goals) thriving as a result. Their midfield can also match it with any side when they're flying, which is quite often. Currently sitting ninth at 6-4, there’s no doubt the Dockers can win 12+ games and play finals, but you wouldn’t expect them to finish any higher than seventh.

Lachlan Geleit

What we thought: Geelong was one of the harder teams to read coming into 2024. On one hand, they had a dual-premiership coach at the helm and several of the game’s best players. But after missing the eight last year, there was no clear reason why the Cats could jump back into September action. A soft underbelly and a clear lack of talented youth were big concerns and it looked like time for a rebuild.  

What we think now: The Cats are (mostly) playing the type of footy displayed by premiership contenders and that is exactly what they are again. Geelong has got one of the easiest runs home in the competition and should finish in the top four, but the narrative out of the club is one of managing the season to challenge for a second flag in three years, not just take part in yet another finals series. They’d want to be there at the pointy end.

Seb Mottram

What we thought: Given Gold Coast’s failure to deliver since their inception, you never really have much faith about what they can achieve. However, with a new coach brings a new game plan and they hired a pretty handy coach in Damien Hardwick. Many wondered whether Hardwick would bring the vintage Richmond style of chaos footy up to the Gold Coast as the Suns searched for their first finals berth in their short history.

What we think now: We now know the Suns are a genuine chance to play finals for the first time with a number of their stars playing career-best footy. They have quite a favourable run home with a lot of winnable away games against St Kilda, West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond. The eight is now a must.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

What we thought: After forcing their way into a Preliminary Final, and almost beating Collingwood in that match, many were confident that the Giants would be thereabouts again in 2024. Plenty of pundits were tipping them to again contend with a top four finish and potential Grand Final appearance high on the agenda.

What we think now: They started like a house on fire, winning their first five games. That had the Giants as flag favourites in some corners with seemingly a top four slot at their mercy. They’ve since dropped four of their last five and should be focusing on simply cementing their spot in the eight for now. Finals are an absolute must from here.

Andrew Slevison

What we thought: A barnstorming run to end the 2023 season, including knocking off both eventual Grand Finalists, had led to some optimism that Hawthorn could be among the glut of teams competing for the last spots in the top eight. But several injury blows in late pre-season, including an ACL for key defender James Blanck, a hamstring setback for Changkuoth Jiath and glandular fever for Dylan Moore had most tempering their expectations on Sam Mitchell’s side. Nevertheless, they were expected to improve from seven wins.

What we think now: In a see-sawing season, Hawthorn are back to where many had them in the pre-season. A cut below most teams, but certainly a challenge and an outfit that will take several scalps on the run home. Sam Mitchell has turned around a slow start to knock off the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda in the last month and after finishing with seven wins last year, eight or more will be a pass mark for the remainder of 2024.

Seb Mottram

What we thought: The external expectations surrounding Melbourne were lower than usual coming into 2024, mostly due to the off-field turmoil around the club. From Joel Smith’s suspension to the drama surrounding Clayton Oliver, former president Glenn Bartlett, Simon Goodwin and more. The Dees desperately needed the season to start to remind everyone of their credentials.

What we think now: Melbourne is under the blanket with the rest of the competition between second and 14th on the ladder who are fighting to finish top eight, or hopefully top four. Consecutive losses to Carlton and West Coast have taken the shine off their start to 2024, but they are clearly one of the teams to beat at the present time.

Nic Negrepontis

What we thought: Not many pundits were expecting much from the embattled Kangaroos in 2024. While there were expectations that they’d win a handful of games and move out of the bottom two, there wasn’t much beyond that. The club has been struggling for a few years now and it certainly wasn’t anticipated that they’d jump and contend this year.

What we think now: Fast forward to now and Alastair Clarkson’s Roos are underachieving. They are yet to win a game, have a paltry percentage of 56.8 and an average losing margin of 51.4 points. The goal for the remainder of the campaign is surely to get off the mark with a win. From there, they can perhaps look to claw their way off the bottom of the ladder by season’s end.

Andrew Slevison

What we thought: Everyone knew Port Adelaide was good after they finished third on last season’s home and away ladder. But after they fell out of September in straight sets, many felt they were still a pace behind the competition’s truly elite teams. While they added in key areas of deficiencies via trade - much as Collingwood did before 2023 - the jury was still out on whether this side was a contender. They were basically a pre-season lock to make finals, although most had a ‘prove it first’ mentality before anointing them a real flag chance.

What we think now: Almost the exact same. The Power constantly beat teams that aren’t finals contenders, and do it well, while their big game record doesn’t stand up well. While they’re 7-3 and sit fourth and again look set for September footy, they’ve lost again in a Showdown, while also going down heavily to Collingwood at the MCG and falling short against Melbourne at home. They face Carlton at home, GWS away and Brisbane at home in a three-game stretch from Round 12. Win at least two of those and many of the naysayers will turn into believers. Their midfield is absolutely one of the competition’s best, but it’s either end of the ground that seems to let them down in these encounters.

Lachlan Geleit

What we thought: Not too much was expected from the Tigers in Adem Yze’s first year, especially after losing veterans Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt. Nobody was tipping them for finals, but some had them sitting around 10th to 12th which seemed reasonable given the amount of quality players still on the list.

What we think now: It’s been a disaster of late with a lot of those quality players struck down by injury which has ravaged the team. That has negatively impacted the club’s results. It appears now as though the Tigers will have to settle for a bottom four position with Yze now able to provide opportunities for the youth. It’s a blessing in disguise for Richmond who should bottom out this year so they can stock up at the draft. It could be a tough watch.

Andrew Slevison

What we thought: The 2022 Grand Finalists fell away in 2023, but still managed to play finals albeit a temporary stint when exiting in the first week. Entering the 2024 season and it was predicted by many that the Swans would certainly be finals contenders. Top four was on the cards, top six for sure, finals a near certainty.

What we think now: Not many would have foreseen what John Longmire’s side has produced so far. Sydney sits atop the AFL ladder with a 9-1 record and a massive percentage of 154.6, almost 30 per cent above their nearest rivals. Their only loss is to lowly Richmond. They have set themselves up for a proper assault on the top four and from here they can fiercely pursue a premiership. But they just wouldn’t want to peak too early…

Andrew Slevison

What we thought: The Saints spent every week in the top eight last season and with another pre-season under Ross Lyon and adding a few new players in the off-season, many St Kilda fans had high hopes heading into 2024. Saints fans expected the young core of Mattaes Phillipou, Mitch Owens and Max King to take that leap in becoming elite talent and that hasn’t been the case.

What we think now: The Saints are in the worst position possible with Lyon’s side playing arguably the worst brand of footy that says them sit 14th on the ladder with just three wins to their name. Their inability to score coupled with one of the worst midfields in the competition says the Saints left to ruin with where the club finds itself some 10 rounds in.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

What we thought: After totalling just five wins across the previous two seasons, most expected another year in the doldrums for the Eagles. Harley Reid was tipped to be a shining light amongst it all, but much can he actually do in his first season? 34 out of 36 of SEN's pre-season expert predictions had West Coast winning the wooden spoon.

What we think now: Maybe Harley Reid can truly do it all? The young star has completely revitalised the Eagles, bringing hope back to the club as they have suddenly become competitive. Formerly a scheduled win, facing off against West Coast is now anything but, especially in Perth. Others have stepped up alongside Reid, with Jake Waterman in particular coming out of absolutely nowhere to become one of the most in-form players in the competition, currently equal-first in the Coleman race. West Coast is still going to finish down low, but they’re certainly going to scare some teams along the way.

Jack Makeham

What we thought: Inconsistency saw the Bulldogs narrowly miss out on a finals berth in 2023, falling short of expectations. 2024 externally felt like a year all about Luke Beveridge and whether the Bulldogs could make the eight, compete for a flag and prove they could make the most of their top-end stars. However, they were seen as a team that would be fighting to break into the top eight.

What we think now: The Bulldogs have ridden the highs and lows of the home-and-away season more than any other club this season, swinging from finals contender to disappointment in the eyes of footy fans on a weekly basis. This has been reflected in the disputes clearly going on internally, with Luke Beveridge disagreeing with Bulldogs management on the state of the list and their expectations for the season. They’ve shown signs of dominance, easily handling the Giants on their own turf, but have also dropped games to teams like the Hawks. Finals are clearly the goal from here on out, and all eyes will be on Beveridge if the Dogs fall short once again.

Jack Makeham