Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 13

Round 13 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some intriguing games ahead over the weekend.

While the bye rounds have begun, only two teams sit out across the King's Birthday long weekend as games are set for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

The last three games are particularly interesting, with potential top four shaping clashes taking place between Sydney and Geelong, Essendon and Carlton and finally Collingwood and Melbourne for the Big Freeze at the 'G.

With all of that in mind, see our tips and predictions for Round 13 below.

Adelaide v Richmond

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The most lacklustre Thursday night clash seen so far in 2024, there’s still plenty on the line when Adelaide (14th) hosts Richmond (17th) to kick off Round 13.

With just one victory from their last four games, Matthew Nicks’ Crows are desperate to get back on the winner’s list and keep in touch with the top eight. A loss will likely see them 14 points behind 8th place heading into the bye, with Sydney to come the following week. Against a Richmond outfit missing almost 10 of its best 23 players, defeat on Thursday night would signal season over for Adelaide.

But the Crows won’t find it easy. They have the most season-ending injuries of any club after Richmond, with Matt Crouch (shoulder) joining that list this week. Taylor Walker (back) and Jordan Dawson (foot) will also need to prove their fitness.

Nicks’ men have only won two of their six games at Adelaide Oval this year and are 1-1 in Thursday night fixtures in 2024. They’ve also failed to capitalise on a blockbuster fixture, with just one victory coming in a night game.

On the other hand, Richmond has punched above its weight in recent weeks. Fielding 12 players with less than 50 games against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium in Round 12, the Adem Yze’s Tigers scrapped and fought their way to a five-goal lead in the shadows of half-time before running out of legs after the break.

It followed up a competitive effort in Dreamtime at the ‘G against Essendon as proof the young Tigers are starting to buy in.

But without a discernable gameplan and against a Crows outfit that simply has to come out breathing fire, the Tigers aren’t expected to fire too many shots.

Tip: Adelaide by 38 points.

Seb Mottram

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane        

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Western Bulldogs eventually ground Collingwood down to deservedly win by 18 points last weekend.

Luke Beveridge’s Dogs, despite carrying some injuries, have now won three of their last four and are knocking on the door of the top eight with the third best percentage in the league (121.3%).

Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar were unstoppable against the Pies. They combined for 75 disposals, 21 clearances, 17 score involvements, 13 inside 50s, 12 tackles and three goals. That midfield unit will be boosted by the return of Tom Liberatore from concussion, but Ed Richards will again miss with his own concussion issues.

The Brisbane Lions have freshened up after a bye as they look to make their charge towards finals in the second half of the season.

Chris Fagan’s charges need to get a wriggle on if they want to force their way into the eight.

Former Dog Josh Dunkley has arguably been Brisbane’s most consistent player in 2024. He averages 25.4 disposals, seven tackles and over four clearances, while two-time Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale has also been in good nick of late. He has averaged 31 touches and seven clearance sin his last five against the Doggies.

With Sam Darcy suspended, the Dogs will be without four of their top six goal kickers for the clash with the Lions, leaving them short on scoring options. With no Darcy and Aaron Naughton, it creates a big job for Rory Lobb who will have his hands full with either Harris Andrews or Jack Payne.

The Lions have been decent at Marvel Stadium in recent years, winning seven of their last nine at the venue. Their only losses at Marvel since 2019 have come against the Dogs last year and the Hawks this year.

It’s a tricky fixture given what’s at stake, but the Dogs ever so slightly get the nod given they’re in winning form and have strung together a quartet of decent performances.

The Lions need to win for the good of their stuttering campaign, but it’s hard to trust them without seeing it first.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 11 points.

Andrew Slevison

Hawthorn v GWS

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – UTAS Stadium

This has quietly became a difficult game to tip. Hawthorn’s recent form has been outstanding, winning four of their last five games. That only loss came in the dying seconds against Port Adelaide, a game they were in full control of.

GWS meanwhile turned things around before their bye, taking down Geelong in Geelong, but otherwise have been struggling a bit.

The Giants have been hit hard by injuries, with Lachie Ash, Jack Buckley, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly and Harry Perryman all unavailable.

Hawthorn is without Mitch Lewis, but are otherwise at full strength.

The game takes place in Launceston and the Hawks have won six of their last eight at the venue, despite their recent struggles overall.

The Giants won both clashes against Hawthorn in 2023. Coniglio dominated both games and is obviously unavailable this time around.

Hawthorn has kicked 100 points in back to back games and are capable of kicking a winning score. GWS meanwhile started the season as a scoring machine, but it has dropped away in the last month.

Tip: GWS by 9 points

Nic Negrepontis

West Coast v North Melbourne

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – Optus Stadium

Is this the best chance North Melbourne will get to secure a win this season?

The Kangaroos are in the midst of another disastrous year, with the threat of having the first winless season since Fitzroy in 1964 becoming more ominous every week.

Formerly North’s running mate in the wooden spoon race, West Coast has managed to claw their way out of the cellar, with young star Harley Reid injecting life back into the club.

Thankfully for the Roos, Reid’s suspension means they won’t have to come face-to-face with the young gun they narrowly missed out on drafting, and with the Eagles also missing key figures such as Tim Kelly and Oscar Allen, North couldn’t have gotten West Coast at a better time.

Yet on their home deck it is all but guaranteed that the Eagles will more than hold their own, with all three of their wins this season coming at Optus Stadium and the majority of their losses at home coming by a small margin.

With the Kangaroos having lost every game this season by at least 25 points, it’s clear that they haven’t even come close to their first win in 2024.

While they mightn’t be too far off a banged-up West Coast on paper, North Melbourne is yet to give any reason to tip them this season.

Tip: West Coast by 21 points.

Jack Makeham

St Kilda v Gold Coast    

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Gold Coast entered the top eight with their win over Essendon last Sunday and this is a game they simply must win if they want to be there come season’s end.

While they’re the far better-performed team in 2024 so far compared to St Kilda, they’re still yet to win in Melbourne under Damien Hardwick. Surely this is their chance.

The Saints themselves are coming off a win as well after beating West Coast in Perth. Since Round 2 though, they’ve only beaten teams ranked 16th or lower on the ladder.

The Suns find themselves eighth after their win against Essendon, so should be feeling reasonably confident there.

We know that the Saints won’t score too heavily, so they’ll need to keep Gold Coast to a score below 70. That’s basically their only road to victory.

That can happen if they do a job on Ben King – the current Coleman co-leader – but the Suns have only been held to a score of 70 or fewer once in their last six games.

While we know the Suns are a different proposition at home compared to away, they shouldn’t be losing this one on form unless they get a serious case of the jitters.

Tip: Gold Coast by 22 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Sydney v Geelong     

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – SCG  

Sydney is easily the best team in the competition right now and it’s impossible to pick against them.

The same can be said here, despite Geelong currently sitting third on the ladder.

In Sydney’s 10 wins this year, they’ve smallest winning margin has been 14. At the SCG, that number is 22. That’s the gap between them and the rest as they hold a percentage of 150.1

While no one is expecting things to be that easy against Geelong, the Swans’ ball use and contested grunt should be overwhelming for the Cats.

Looking on-ball it’s a matchup of Brodie Grundy, Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden against Toby Conway, Jack Bowes, Max Holmes and Tom Atkins – if Patrick Dangerfield doesn’t return. That lopsided advantage for Sydney is just about enough to will them over the line already.

Geelong’s avenue to victory is if their forward line fires on all cylinders. While that’s possible, you just can’t see a side that’s 1-4 in their last five going to the SCG and winning the hardest game in footy.

It should be Sydney, and pretty comfortably too.

Tip: Sydney by 30 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Essendon v Carlton       

Sunday - 7:20pm AEST – MCG 

Two heavyweights collide in what may be the biggest game of the 2024 season.

It’s the first time the rivals have faced off while both teams sit in the eight since Round 11 of 2013, and with both sides playing at the highest level, the stakes do not get much bigger.

Essendon came up short against the Gold Coast Suns up north on Sunday, falling by 11 points in what was their first defeat since Round 4.

The Bombers have freed up their ball movement from the back half since the return of Jordan Ridley, however their run and carry had its downsides, as Essendon gave up 76 turnovers, directly resulting in 73 of the Suns’ 91 points.

They will need to tighten up their ball movement, as Carlton managed 49 points from just 57 Port Adelaide turnovers in their Round 12 matchup.

For the first time in their careers, twins Ben and Harry McKay are set to line up on each other in what will be an enthralling battle in Essendon's back half.

Both have been in strong form, however following Harry’s 17 disposals and three goals against the Power, the forward enters the clash with the upper hand, given Ben managed just eight touches and two marks, conceding four majors to Ben King in his last outing.

Injury concerns are mounting for the Bombers, with the absence of Zach Reid, Darcy Parish and Mason Redman already confirmed alongside Kyle Langford who remains a test.

The Blues had a stellar victory over Port Adelaide in South Australia, walking away as 36-point winners after an impressive eight-goal final term.

In arguably the most impressive midfield performance of the season, Carlton amounted a massive 57 points from stoppage on Thursday night, +26 on the league’s average.

The Baggers have looked dynamic since handing the number one ruckman spot to Tom De Konig, with TDK ranking as the number one player on the ground in Round 12, while also collecting 25 disposals and 27 hit outs against the Suns in Round 11. With Todd Goldstein remaining a test following his absence in Round 12, the ruck battle may be over before it even commences.

Entering as favourites, Carlton has a golden opportunity to leapfrog their rivals and enter the top four ahead of the bye in Round 14, and with a few key Bombers set to miss, it’s hard to bet against the in-form Blues.

Tip: Carlton by 23 points

Jaiden Sciberras

Collingwood v Melbourne     

Monday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG  

Both teams are playing nowhere near their best, making this game incredibly hard to pick.

Collingwood is battling the injury bug with their forward line and midfield depleted, while Melbourne was so far off it against Fremantle last Sunday that they looked like a bottom-four team.

With the Magpies lacking forwards and the Demons being naturally defensive, Melbourne will hope to win by keeping Collingwood to a score of 65 or less. That’s well and truly possible given the lack of options in black and white and looks to be the most likely result.

If Collingwood are to win, it’ll be through their ball use and outside players. Fremantle absolutely dismantled Melbourne by lowering the eyes and taking marks, but there’s just about no way the Magpies do a similar job to the Dockers on-ball unless Nick Daicos is let free to run wild again.

Was last week a one-off for the Dees? If it was, you’d back them to return to normal and be too strong for a Collingwood side that’s playing like a mid-table side without some of their key soldiers.

If it wasn’t a one-off, Collingwood win, because you know that their floor is still decent enough to beat a Melbourne team that played close to a 0/10.

It’s blind faith in Melbourne resolving some of their woes with the tip. If not, it’ll be panic stations in Demonland.

Tip: Melbourne by 6 points.

Lachlan Geleit