Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 14

Round 14 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some intriguing games ahead over the weekend.

After a long weekend of footy in Round 13, six teams take the week off in Round 14 as the bye rounds begin to make a big impact.

It's also the first round with no Thursday night football for the year as Brisbane v St Kilda clash at the Gabba on Friday to kick things off.

The round will no doubt centre around Saturday afternoon at the MCG, with Richmond taking on Hawthorn in Dustin Martin's 300th game.

With all of that in mind, see our tips and predictions for Round 14 below.

Brisbane v St Kilda      

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Gabba

Have the Brisbane Lions rediscovered their mojo?

They looked back to their best when beating the Western Bulldogs by 43 points last weekend.

Chris Fagan’s side now sits just six points outside the eight. Are they primed to go on a run?

The Lions face a St Kilda outfit that edged Gold Coast by three points in a dour contest to make it two triumphs on the trot.

Ross Lyon is expected to keep things tight defensively in order to give his Saints the best chance possible at pulling off an upset.

Marcus Windhager did a great job tagging Suns star Touk Miller last weekend. Will he be given the massive job on two-time Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale, who is fresh off 38 touches?

It could go a long way to stopping the Lions, but it is no moral given the presence of Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Dayne Zorko. Add to that the form of Eric Hipwood who produced arguably a career-best performance with 20 disposals, 13 marks and six goals last week.

The Lions have won their last four, and six of the last seven over the Saints who have averaged 63 points per game across that time. The Saints last beat the Lions at the Gabba back in 2015.

While it will not be an easy task, the Lions should have enough in their trick bag to overcome a plucky Saints outfit.

Tip: Brisbane by 20 points.

Andrew Slevison

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Before last week’s loss to Brisbane, the Western Bulldogs suggested they were looking forward to the bye and their performance proved it.

Now, the Dogs have to lick their wounds and go again one more time before a fortnight’s break. Luke Beveridge is a master of galvanizing his men against the odds, but could he lift the Dogs’ performance after a 43-point loss last week and against a team which has lost just one of its last five games.

Beveridge and the Dogs are up against it to keep in touch with the top eight.

Fremantle, on the other hand, are brimming with confidence having belted Melbourne by 92 points prior to the bye. That win looks less impressive than first thought after the Demons’ King’s Birthday loss, but the Dockers’ form since a six-goal loss in the WA Derby is solid.

Justin Longmuir’s troops have come to Melbourne twice since to record impressive wins against Richmond and St Kilda, while a draw against Collingwood also reads well.

But also nestled in that block of contests was the last time Fremantle met the Bulldogs. It was less than two months ago when Fremantle posted a four-goal triumph over the Dogs at home.

With the margin just five points at the final break, Longmuir’s men kicked away in the last to record a comfortable win. Given the Dogs’ physical state, with Alex Keath the latest to succumb to injury in Round 13, Fremantle will enjoy a clear mental edge in the last term in a close contest.

Yet Beveridge has proven time and time again, even in 2024, that his Dogs are not to be underestimated and with Ed Richards (concussion) and Cody Weightman (elbow) a chance to return from injury, the home side will be up for the fight.

Tip: Fremantle by 11 points.

Seb Mottram

Richmond v Hawthorn     

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – MCG

This clash will be a huge celebration of one of the greatest Tigers of all time – Dustin Martin - who plays game 300.

And it’s come at a good time for the Tigers who have rallied to find some form after a disastrous start to the season, battling well in losses to Essendon and Geelong before knocking off the Crows in Adelaide.

The only thing though, is that Hawthorn has quickly become one of the most in-form sides in the competition, winning five of their last six. Their only loss in that patch came by one point to Port Adelaide, a game they should have won on all measures.

It won’t be easy for this Richmond side to stop the Hawthorn train, particularly in the middle as the Hawks have begun to motor in that area since the return of Will Day.

If the Tigers are to win, it won’t have to be just on the back of a defensive performance, given Tom Lynch is set to return to bring some forward line firepower alongside Martin and Shai Bolton.

While there’s no doubt the Tigers will be up for it to honour their legendary teammate, it’s simply too hard to pick against a Hawthorn side that’s in form… particularly against a side that’s still 17th on the ladder.

Tip: Hawthorn by 19 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Adelaide v Sydney  

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Can Adelaide bounce back after one of the worst losses of their season?

It will be an immensely tough ask when facing off against the best side in the league.

The shorthanded Crows fell victim to a spirited Richmond outfit in Round 12, pushing any hope of a stunning rise into the finals race further away.

While the Swans also sit as a side that has face the sting of defeat at the hands of the Tigers, that is about where their similarities with Adelaide end.

Sydney has been head and shoulders above the competition this season, with their case as flag favourites growing even more after last week’s impressive comeback victory against the Cats.

With Izak Rankine eyeing a return for Adelaide, the Crows are in much better shape than they were last round, yet it doesn’t look like it will matter much against this Sydney juggernaut.

Every single one of the Swans’ wins this season have come by double digits, and considering they haven’t lost to the Crows since 2019, it’s almost impossible to tip against the Bloods on Saturday night.

Tip: Sydney by 22 points.

Jack Makeham

North Melbourne v Collingwood

Sunday - 1:00pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Sunday afternoon footy will see the Kangaroos host the Magpies in a big chance for the latter to truly cement their spot in the top eight before the bye.

Craig McRae’s men are looking to edge themselves into the top four with a convincing win over a brave yet underperformed side in North Melbourne.

Despite the Roos recording a brilliant season-first victory over the Eagles to break their 11-game losing streak, the reigning premiers really should prove far too strong.

The midfield battle will be one to watch as the last two Rising Star winners Nick Daicos and Harry Sheezel go head-to-head.

Collingwood’s backline should prove far too strong for the less experienced North Melbourne forward line with Darcy Moore likely to play an important role on star Nick Larkey.

With the Pies winning four out of their last five against the Kangaroos, it’s looking likely that they will add to that tally on Sunday afternoon and maintain their position in the top eight.

North could huff and puff and hang around for a while, but the Magpies should have the quality and the system to overcome any challenge before kicking away late.

Tip: Collingwood by 54 points.

Tom Williams

GWS v Port Adelaide       

Sunday - 4:00pm AEST – ENGIE Stadium 

Two top eight quality sides battling it out in what may prove a very important eight-point swing.

The Giants came off the bye in Round 12 to take on an in-form Hawthorn, leading for a majority of the day before falling a goal short late in the contest.

That marks just one win from the Giants’ last five, clinching a big win away against the Cats but falling short in several winnable games.

The Giants’ ball movement may be a cause for concern, with Kingsley’s high pace, driving style of footy slightly faltering in the last few games.

GWS gave up the ball 71 times to the Hawks, conceding 54 points off of turnovers to a side averaging just over 40 a game.

The Giants also rank fifth in the league this year for scores off the back of opposition turnovers, which may benefit Port Adelaide significantly.

The Power give up the second least turnovers per game, with less than 60 turnovers in their last two matchups prior to the bye.

The bye round may prove significant for Port Adelaide, with the week off giving both Connor Rozee and Willie Rioli an extra week of recovery from their respective injuries.

Both stars enter the fixture as a test, and the result may depend on the availability of the two stars.

Port’s loss to the Blues before the bye did raise some eyebrows regarding the quality of the side, giving up eight goals in the final term to fall by 36 points.

A tough one to pick, but with the Giants at home and questions around Rozee’s fitness, we’re backing the big big sound.

Tip: GWS by 9 points.

Jaiden Sciberras