AFL
6 months ago
Swans dominating AFL like no team has in over a decade
By Seb Mottram
The Sydney Swans are facing a disrespect like few teams, if any, have copped in the 21st century, with their stunning rise flying largely under the radar in 2024.
Despite plenty of praise, scouring back through the statistics over the last decade and more, John Longmire and his side are piecing together a campaign that is rarely seen.
So far in front are they at the top of the ladder, it would almost shock to see the Swans miss a Grand Final this season given precedence.
The word around Melbourne is the AFL has never been this open. Geelong has fallen off the perch after a strong start to 2024, Carlton sits 2nd on the ladder but are yet to click into first gear, Collingwood are battling injuries and Melbourne is now struggling just to play finals.
The only thing is, they’re all Victorian teams and in reality, not since 2011 and beyond have we seen a club this dominant heading into Round 14.
It’s not the fact that Sydney is two games clear atop the ladder with a game in hand of most clubs, but the reality that their percentage tells the real story.
With 1244 points for (1st in the league) and 836 points against (17th in the league), the Swans have a percentage of 148.8 after 12 games.
Not since 2019 have the ladder leaders boasted such a percentage at this point of the year. Back then it was Geelong, who faltered in a Preliminary Final.
But it’s not just how good the Swans are, it’s the state of the other clubs.
Currently, Fremantle – sitting 7th on the ladder – has the 2nd best percentage in the competition, 121.4, some 27.4 behind Sydney.
Had the Dockers' not produced the most surprising result of the season by pumping Melbourne in Round 12, and instead won by three goals and scoring 80-odd points, the nearest team in percentage would be the Brisbane Lions with 115.5.
The gap between Sydney and Fremantle in 2nd in terms of percentage hasn't been seen heading into Round 14 since 2011. In that year, Collingwood’s 178.3 topped the Cats 142.9, although Geelong sat 1st on the ladder.
Both sides emerged the clear top two in 2011, with the Cats claiming the Grand Final by 38 points.
With every aspect of the game covered, it’s hard not to be enamoured by the Swans. That their only loss came against 16th-placed Richmond in Round 3 is stunning, but since then the Swans have won every game by at least 14 points.
Six of the 11 wins have come against top eight clubs. There’s no notion of pretenders here.
The Swans are a unanimous no.1 seed across the competition as it stands – Gerard Whateley and David King even changed up the format of their weekly seeds to ‘bet without’ Sydney ahead of Round 14.
But make no mistake. If Collingwood were in the Swans’ positon, Craig McRae’s side would be $2 for this year’s flag, not the $3.50 on offer for the men from the Harbour city.
With Izak Rankine returning for Adelaide on Saturday, talk of an upset against the Swans at Adelaide Oval is growing.
And the Crows may well get their first win since Round 11, with Sydney overdue for a loss. But with the Swans’ average winning margin away from home this year sitting at over 39 points, Longmire’s troops would have every right to be furious over their credentials being questioned.
All of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, Errol Gulden and Brodie Grundy are favoured to win new All-Australian blazers at this point of the year and with captain Callum Mills still to return from a shoulder injury, there’s no telling the heights this Sydney team can reach.
They’re dominating the competition like few have in the modern game. It’s time to really give them their flowers.
