Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 16

It’s time to say goodbye to the byes; we’ve got nine games of footy back this weekend in what shapes as a ladder-defining Round 16.

The last time Brisbane and Melbourne clashed at the Gabba the power went out and ironically sparked a massive Demons’ comeback, one that was almost successful. Those two meet again in Brisbane with plenty on the line.

Following that Friday night clash, Luke Beveridge’s Bulldogs could jump back into the eight with a win against North Melbourne, Fremantle could fall out with a loss to Sydney, while the Suns’ hosting Collingwood is a game of epic proportions for both clubs’ prospects this year.

In one of the closest seasons we’ve seen in years, GWS, Geelong, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Hawthorn also all need wins to either stay in or keep in touch with the finals mix.

See our tips for each game below.

Brisbane v Melbourne      

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Gabba

Brisbane has found its groove by winning three in a row, including last weekend’s 79-point crushing of Port Adelaide.

The Lions are crouching ominously outside the eight, primed to pounce on any underperforming opponents who get in their way.

Melbourne edged North Melbourne by three points in Round 15. The Demons sit in ninth spot, narrowly above the Lions by just two points which highlights the importance of this fixture.

The Demons will be thrilled to have Jake Lever back in the side after appearing a little less sturdy than usual in defence of late. His return comes at an opportune time given the recent form of Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher.

The Brisbane duo were a handful for the Power defenders last week, combining for eight goals and 18 marks. Across the last three weeks they have combined for 23.12 and 64 marks so Lever and Steven May will have their work cut out for them.

Chris Fagan’s Lions have averaged 126 points over their past 5 matches. In that time, Simon Goodwin’s Dees have averaged just 68.

The Lions are on that run we’ve been expecting of them and they should pick this one up at the Gabba where they have won 17 of their last 20 including their past three (after dropping their first three at the venue this year).

Without Christian Petracca, it’s hard to see the Demons having enough firepower to win this but they’ll likely set up well defensively and make themselves hard to break down.

Tip: Brisbane by 18 points.

Andrew Slevison

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

It’s fair to say the Bulldogs have enjoyed playing against North Melbourne in recent years. So much so that the AFL took them off the Good Friday game for maybe enjoying it a little too much?

The Dogs have won their last five encounters over the Kangaroos by an average margin of 59 points.

North has generally been monstered by the Bulldogs’ supreme contest and clearance players and also had no way of restricting their key forwards from getting involved.

However, the Roos have had a great month. They should’ve beaten Collingwood and Melbourne in successive weeks and it’s largely due to their emerging midfield group coming together.

The Dogs are also in good form and starting to build towards a finals run, making it nearly impossible to tip against them – even with a question mark over Marcus Bontempelli’s availability.

It’s another big test for a young Kangaroos side that has given it their all, but come up short these last few weeks.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 26 points

Nic Negrepontis

Sydney v Fremantle

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – SCG

Fremantle are up against it as they fly to Sydney with the Swans gunning for their 11th straight win.

The Swans have been far too good for their opposition across that stretch with all of their wins coming by at least 14 points.

In terms of the ladder, Sydney is comfortably the best side in the opposition in terms of offence and defence, while the Dockers are the second-best defensive team in the competition in terms of points against.

If they’re to win here, they might need to try and turn this game into a low-scoring slog.

They’ll need more than luck trying to do that against this Sydney side without their skipper Alex Pearce, who holds up their defence as the key pillar.

Given that Sydney kicked 100 or more points in 10 of their 14 games so far this season, Fremantle will be seriously up against it to keep them to less than the 85 that they’ll probably need to do to win.

These teams also last faced off just seven weeks ago in Round 9, that time at Optus Stadium as the Swans proved victorious 39-87.

An upset would push the Dockers right into top four calculations, but they won’t go in as favourites in anyone’s book, even though they were victorious in their last trip to the SCG in 2023.

Tip: Sydney by 29 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Gold Coast v Collingwood  

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – People First Stadium

It’s a Gold Coast home game, but don’t be surprised to see an atmosphere more resembling a Collingwood game.

The now-annual school holidays game has attracted great crowds in recent years with plenty of Magpies fans getting down, and get down they will for good reason again on Saturday evening.

Collingwood has won its last five games on the Gold Coast by an average of 41 points and hasn’t lost at the venue since 2014.

That fact contrasts the Suns’ record at home this year. Damien Hardwick’s troops are shooting for a 6th straight win at People First Stadium in 2024 and also won both their home games in Darwin.

The Magpies are sitting pretty in the top four but could fall to as low but could fall to as low as 9th if results fall against them. A similar case faces the Suns, who are one of eight teams between 28 and 32 premiership points, meaning a loss puts them behind the chasing pack yet again.

It’s also a clash to keep an eye on the whole way through, given Collingwood came from 54 points down in the third term to knock off North Melbourne in their last outing, their second best comeback in club history.

Since Round 9, Collingwood has only beaten one club by more than three goals, so strap in for another thriller.

Tip: Collingwood by 12 points.

Seb Mottram

Adelaide v GWS Giants

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Adelaide is in a slump with three defeats on the trot and just one win since Round 8.

As a result the Crows are entrenched in the bottom four and in desperate need of a win.

The Giants are similarly in average form, losing two of their last three and five of their last seven.

Their position in the eight is at danger if this form continues.

But they’ll take some sort of solace in the fact that they have won their last four over the Crows by an average of 39 points. Three of those have been at Adelaide Oval.

GWS captain Toby Greene has been threatening to take control of a game over the last few weeks. His form against the Crows of late has been excellent, tallying 11 goals and 56 touches in his last three outings, including three Brownlow votes in last year’s meeting.

It’s a tricky affair to assess given the subpar form of both sides, but the Giants have the wood over the Crows.

Additionally, Adelaide has won just two of eight at home this year and the Giants have won four of their last five in South Australia.

Tip: GWS by 10 points.

Andrew Slevison

Geelong v Essendon

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

There are question marks everywhere when Geelong and Essendon clash at the ‘G on Saturday night.

Was last Friday Geelong’s new normal? Does Essendon deserve to sit in the top four? What’s happened to Tom Stewart? There’s plenty on the line in Round 15 for both sides to prove themselves.

After losing six of their last seven, Geelong is teetering on falling out of the top eight. Just two months ago they were 7-0, with their current position a mockery of the Cats’ start to the season.

And while it seems all doom and gloom after being pumped by 10 goals last week, a closer examination allows for more optimism. The Cats gave Sydney a real run for their money at the SCG and arguably should have beaten GWS either side of a five-goal win against Richmond.

If you’re willing to forgive last week, that previous form has Geelong right in this.

Meanwhile, Brad Scott has undoubtedly installed a winning edge into his Bombers, as seen in their 9-4 record.

But their percentage of 102.7 has them ranked 10th. History tells us that the percentage and win-loss record tend to marry up towards the end of the season, so Essendon is either going to start winning big or could lose a few.

Don't forget, the Bombers haven't beaten Geelong since 2018.

Saturday night could be a defining match for both clubs.

Tip: Geelong by eight points.

Seb Mottram

St Kilda v Port Adelaide

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Saints will play host to an under-fire Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium in what looks a genuine 50-50 game.

No doubt Port Adelaide’s form means they head to Melbourne as the underdogs but to be honest both sides have been really disappointing this year.

On paper, Ken Hinkley’s Power has far more star power with the likes of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Dan Houston and Jason Horne Francis all top players in the competition and when you throw in their record over the Saints – you can build quite the case.

Port have won 13 of the last 14 games against the Saints with two of those wins coming at Marvel Stadium.

When they met in Round 7 this year, it was Port Adelaide’s classy midfield that proved too much for the Saints and it appears that might be the case again on the weekend.

The Saints are no doubt playing better footy compared to what they were dishing up at the start of the year but there are still some glaring issues. The connection between their midfielders and forwards is something you can’t just fix overnight and it’s definitely something they’ve worked on, but it still isn’t cutting it.

They’ve kicked over 80 points just twice in six weeks and it means their defence has to play out of their skin to keep them in with any chance of winning and the loss of Dougal Howard a fortnight ago hasn’t helped their case.

St Kilda’s playing style doesn’t cut it against the best teams in the competition and on Port Adelaide’s day, they are up there with the best.

Expecting Butters, Rozee, Horne Francis and Ollie Wines to play for their coach this Sunday and have too much star power against the Saints.

Port Adelaide by 17 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Richmond v Carlton

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG

Weird things happen when these two teams meet. Despite significant gaps in talent (one way or the other), they tend to be tight affairs.

For the majority of the last decade, it has been Richmond who have owned this matchup, but the tide feels like it has shifted.

The Tigers are now without Tom Lynch again, Dylan Grimes is out for the season and this truly feels like a year from hell for coach Adem Yze.

Carlton meanwhile, for the first time in maybe two decades, feel legitimate. Beating Geelong, Essendon and Port Adelaide (away) in the last month has shown that they are a rung above the sides battling away for a top eight spot.

They’ve survived not only a brutal fixture run but also having as many as 15 players on their injury list. Now not only is the schedule opening up, but they’re getting healthy across the board too.

Carlton’s backline being at full strength for the last month has seen them concede scores of 73, 71, 70 and 75 – it’s hard to imagine Richmond’s understrength forward 50 kicking a winning score without Shai Bolton ripping the game to shreds.

Will we regret fully trusting Carlton? We have before, but they’ve earned the league’s trust for now. They should win comfortably.

Tip: Carlton by 35 points

Nic Negrepontis

West Coast v Hawthorn

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Optus Stadium

An interesting game at Optus Stadium wraps up Round 16 with West Coast hosting Hawthorn on Sunday afternoon.

While it’s a battle of 13th v 16th, both teams appear vastly improved over the last couple of months, with Hawthorn in particular winning seven of their last nine games.

In Perth, the Eagles haven’t been easybeats, with wins against Richmond, Fremantle and Melbourne since Round 6.

In that stretch though, they’ve also gone down to Essendon, St Kilda and North Melbourne by 14 or fewer points.

Clearly, they’re competitive at home against everyone, but when they’re not on, they’ll still get beaten.

It appears more likely that they won’t be at the top of their game given they’ve won just three of 14 games in 2024, so the pick is with Hawthorn.

That’s even with the likely return of Harley Reid and Tim Kelly who will no doubt give this side some much-needed class and firepower around the footy.

A smart pick would be Hawthorn in a game similar to those games that were won by the Dons, Saints and Roos over in Perth since Round 9.

Tip: Hawthorn by 13 points.

Lachlan Geleit