The 16 certainties for the rest of Round 16

Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the eight remaining games in Round 16 across Saturday and Sunday.

North Melbourne versus Western Bulldogs

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kicks 2+ goals

The Dogs have dominated North Melbourne in recent years and their key forwards have particularly feasted.

While the Roos have been better in recent weeks, they lose George Wardlaw and are still undermanned down back.

Expect Ugle-Hagan to have a big game on the fast deck of Marvel Stadium

Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ disposals

With Wardlaw out, the Roos will have an even greater midfield reliance on LDU.

He has been in stunning form recently and is going from strength to strength.

Davies-Uniacke is averaging 28 disposals per game and will easily clear 25 on Saturday afternoon.

Nic Negrepontis

Sydney versus Fremantle

Gulden 30+ disposals

Errol Gulden is in brilliant form for the Swans.

He has picked up at least 35 disposals in all of his last three games with an average of 37.66 over that stretch.

While he had only 25 the last time the teams met in Round 9, his recent form is simply too much to ignore.

The Swans will look to get the footy into his hands and if they can do that, he’ll pass the 30-touch marker.

Serong 25+ disposals

One player who was prolific the last time the sides met in Round 9 was Caleb Serong.

The gun on-baller helped himself to a game-high 34 touches in that game and seven inside 50s.

While he hasn’t passed the 30-touch barrier in his last four games, he has yet to have a game in 2024 below 25 disposals.

He’s an absolute guarantee for 25 and has every chance to pass 30.

Lachlan Geleit

Gold Coast versus Collingwood

Anderson 25+ disposals

Opposition midfielders have been racking up the footy against Collingwood this year and don’t expect Noah Anderson to have a quiet one here.

Last time against the Pies, which was also at People First Stadium, Anderson helped himself to 35 disposals and seven clearances.

Collingwood hasn’t tagged all year and don’t expect anyone to go to the prolific ball-winner who is averaging 29 touches a game in 2024.

He should go very close to that number again if not surpass it here.

Mihocek to kick a goal

Collingwood has been crying out for a key forward for months and Brody Mihocek finally returns to bolster the front six for the trip to Gold Coast.

While he’s only played 9 games in 2024, he’s kicked 16 goals across that period with multiple majors coming in six of those games.

Expect him to get on the scoreboard this Saturday given he’ll be Collingwood’s number one option looking inside 50 all afternoon.

Lachlan Geleit

Adelaide versus GWS

Laird 25+ disposals

Adelaide midfielder Rory Laird has been pretty prolific in 2024.

The on-baller has had at least 25 disposals in 10 of his 14 games and has passed at least 28 in all of his last four.

Against a GWS side that he collected 34 against the last time the sides faced off, Laird should easily get to 25.

If Jordan Dawson is tagged by Toby Bedford as well, it should make things even easier for the inside bull.

Greene 2+ goals

GWS skipper Toby Greene loves playing against Adelaide.

The superstar has kicked 11 goals in his last three games against the Crows across 2022 and 2023, while he’s also had at least 17 touches in all of those games as well.

2+ majors here seems well in Greene’s capability despite him last kicking multiple majors in Round 12.

2+ goals and 15+ touches looks a strong pick for Saturday night.

Lachlan Geleit

Geelong versus Essendon

Miers for 20+ disposals

With the Cats going as bad as they ever have under Chris Scott, players standing up are few and far between.

Gryan Miers had a poor three-week stretch heading into the bye but returned to the All-Australian form he was in earlier in the season last week, finishing with 23 touches and a goal.

The 25-year-old has had at least 20 touches 11 times this year, including every time he’s played on the MCG.

He should also feature with a goal or goal assist.

Durham to gather 25+ touches

Geelong’s midfield gives up the most contested footy of any club in the competition and few Bombers are winning more than Sam Durham.

In the midst of a breakout season, Durham is averaging 9.5 contested possessions and had 13 just last week against West Coast, a team-high.

Coming off a season-high 29 disposals, expect Durham to find plenty of contested footy and find his way to 25+ disposals.

Mark O’Connor may go to Zach Merrett, but Durham wouldn’t expect too much contact from the Cats.

Seb Mottram

St Kilda versus Port Adelaide

Rowan Marshall to have 15 or more disposals

St Kilda's star big man has been in the media for all the wrong reasons if you're Saints fans with rumours circulating that he wants out of Moorabbin.

The Saints have been pretty keen to squash those rumours and they've no doubt fired Marshall up this week.

He's a ruckman that finds a fair bit of the footy and against Jordan Sweet, we're tipping him to get his hands on it more than 15 times.

It looks a lock.

Connor Rozee to have 25+ disposals or more

With St Kilda's Marcus Windhager expected to tag Zak Butters, Rozee will be able to run with ease against a second-rate St Kilda midfield.

He's had an up-and-down season but was back to near his best last week against a terrific Brisbane midfield.

He's averaging 23 touches this year but we're tipping him to eclipse that on Sunday.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Richmond versus Carlton

Baker to have 20+ disposals, lay 3+ tackles

Liam Baker continues to be in the news regarding his Richmond contract.

But on-field we still feel he’ll have a big impact for the Tigers as they take on the unenviable task of Carlton at the MCG.

Baker has hit the 15-disposal mark in six of seven career games against the Blues, and has reached that threshold in all of his 11 games in 2024.

He has also had 20 or more in seven games this year, so we’re not denying him from getting to that disposal mark, while also impacting with his attack around the ball.

Baker is averaging 3.7 tackles so we’ll throw in at least three tackles for the little gun.

Curnow and McKay to combine for 5+ goals

It’s low-hanging fruit, but the Carlton duo should be very active on Sunday.

Against Geelong last week, Charlie Curnow booted five goals and Harry McKay contributed three of his own for a combined eight majors.

Dual Coleman Medallist Curnow has kicked at least two in all 14 games this season while McKay has booted two or more on nine occasions in 2024.

With many expecting the Blues to come away with a comfortable win, we feel the twin towers will cash in and kick at least five between them as they did in the Round 1 triumph over the Tigers.

Andrew Slevison

West Coast versus Hawthorn

Reid for 15 touches and a goal

It’s no secret that Harley Reid has played his best footy at Optus Stadium and the no.1 pick will be raring to go after his two-week suspension.

Reid has averaged a tick over 20 disposals and also booted six goals in his last five games in Perth, including a 21-disposals, two-goal domination of what was a fully fit Melbourne midfield in Round 10.

The Hawks’ midfield is strong but Sam Mitchell hasn’t run with a traditional tagger in recent weeks, while his side also let Richmond’s Tim Taranto off the chain two weeks ago.

It’s Harley time.

D'Ambrosio for 20+ disposals

It’s time to give the Hawks wingman his flowers.

Massimo D’Ambrosio’s last month has him rated among the best wingmen in the competition, finding plenty of intercepts and running hard back the other way.

He’s taken 23 marks over the last three weeks and his lethal left boot has become a key aspect of Hawthorn’s game plan.

It’s a game plan opponents have struggled to stop for the best part of the last two months and the Eagles will have their hands full.

Seb Mottram

Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au