Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 17

Nine games of footy await fans in Round 17 as the turn home for finals truly begins.

The round begins on Friday night at the MCG with Collingwood meeting Essendon in a finals-shaping and season-defining clash for both sides.

Following that Friday night clash, Saturday has several interesting games with the two features Port Adelaide versus the Western Bulldogs at the Adelaide Oval and GWS hosting Carlton at ENGIE Stadium.

After that super Saturday, Harley Reid takes to the MCG for the first time when West Coast meet Melbourne.

With Hawthorn – who face rivals Geelong in another intriguing game - sitting 13th at the start of the round with an 8-7 record, wins and losses here will really begin separating the ladder as several teams above them face off in big games.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Collingwood v Essendon      

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – MCG

A season-defining clash is set for the traditional rivals at the MCG on Friday night.

Essendon is desperate to pick up a scalp despite sitting fourth in the lead-up to the round while Collingwood needs to start beating fellow finals contenders like the Bombers if they’re to really push for back-to-back.

While both teams enter the round in the top eight, their form has been a little indifferent with the Bombers losing three of their last four, while the Magpies are 2-2 from their past four.

It feels like the result in this one will truly define both how these teams are looked at and where they could end up finishing come season’s end.

In terms of an on-field matchup, both midfields are led by stars Nick Daicos and Zach Merrett, but Essendon has been far more willing to send stoppers the opposition’s way in 2024, while the Magpies back themselves in.

If that happens, Merrett could easily repeat his Anzac Day Medal-winning performance and it’ll give Essendon every chance.

If the Dons do well to stop Daicos, it could free up the likes of Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Jack Crisp – if they can get going, the Magpies could have just a little bit too much firepower around the stoppages.

While the Dons enter the round in the top four, they’re still yet to beat a side inside the top eight. That makes Collingwood the scalp they need, but also one they’re unlikely to get based on this year’s form.

Conversely, the Pies have only lost one of their six games against current top-eight sides.

Based on that, the tip has to be with Collingwood. But perhaps this is the week where Essendon’s fortunes change.

Tip: Collingwood by 10 points.

Lachlan Geleit

North Melbourne v Gold Coast

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

North Melbourne has been much better of late but still can’t buy a win.

The Kangaroos lost by 17 points to the Bulldogs last weekend after narrow defeats to Melbourne (three points) and Collingwood (one).

Gold Coast saw off the Magpies at home last weekend, making it eight from eight at home venues this year.

The Suns are yet to win on the road from eight attempts in 2024 - and sides coached by Damien Hardwick have not won at Marvel Stadium from 10 attempts since 2021 (9 losses and a draw) - but you just get the feeling that they might break that duck.

Additionally, the Roos are the only team that the Suns have a positive record against, winning 11 of 20 matches in their history.

Gold Coast won the Round 9 match-up by 68 points in Darwin, but a much more defensively sturdy North outfit will likely be much more competitive on this occasion.

Nevertheless, if the Suns are to finally break their finals drought, these are the games they simply must be winning on the road.

Tip: Gold Coast by 14 points.

Andrew Slevison

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The Bulldogs and Port feel like two teams heading in different directions as we approach the business end of the season.

The Power have lost a lot of momentum and are hanging onto their top eight spot by a thread.

The Dogs meanwhile feel like a team on the rise. Their midfield is firing on all cylinders and with Aaron Naughton back their forward line has its key pieces.

Port has won four of their last five encounters with the Bulldogs, with the one loss coming in the 2021 Preliminary Final.

However, they haven’t kicked 75 points in a game since late May, and that was against North Melbourne.

They have the home ground advantage, but the Dogs come in with form and a more settled line-up.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 8 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Geelong v Hawthorn  

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium

Hawthorn has been perhaps the competition’s most in-form side besides Sydney across the last 10 weeks, but their biggest challenge yet could be a trip down the highway to play traditional rivals Geelong.

The sides met in Round 3, with the Cats getting the job done on Easter Monday, but the Hawks have improved drastically since then.

A win here would keep their finals dream well and truly alive, while a loss could prove a huge hurdle in their pursuit of September footy.

As for the Cats, they must start making GMHBA Stadium a fortress again having lost two of their last three at the venue.

In that Easter Monday clash, the Cats were simply more efficient going inside 50 as the Hawks won at stoppage and had 63 inside 50s to 54. In terms of goalkicking, the Cats kicked a ridiculous 17.4 to 10.10 and won by 36 points.

Given the margin should have been far closer last time, we can expect this one to be another hard-fought battle.

It’s just too hard to pick against Geelong at home though. Especially given that it’s the first time Hawthorn has travelled down the highway to play the Cats in front of an actual crowd since 2006.

An upset is well and truly on the cards, particularly as the Hawks are 8-2 in their last 10, but the Cats are still to be trusted at home until things begin to go truly pear-shaped.

Tip: Geelong by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

GWS Giants v Carlton

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Engie Stadium

Carlton is a team firing on all cylinders at the moment, but heading up to Sydney to face GWS looms as a big test for them.

The Giants have not been in their best form and have now lost Josh Kelly on top of that. Can their midfield stand up against a Blues side as close to full strength as it has been in years?

Carlton has won four of their last five against GWS, including beating them the last two years in western Sydney.

They’ve shut down Toby Greene inside 50 and Patrick Cripps has dominated one-on-one matchups with Tom Green.

The Giants won’t have Sam Taylor, meaning Jack Buckley and Leek Aleer will once again try to shut down Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.

Up the other end, Carlton’s backline is settled. They haven’t conceded a score over 75 since Round 10.

It’s hard to tip against the Blues in this one, even if they’re probably due for a let down given how red hot they have been in recent weeks.

Tip: Carlton by 11 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Fremantle v Richmond

Saturday - 8:10pm AEST – Optus Stadium

Fresh off a one-point giant-killing win over pace setters Sydney, Fremantle hosts lowly Richmond at Optus Stadium on Saturday night.

The Dockers are in fairly good nick right now having won three of their last four ahead of their clash with a side they saw off by 54 points in Melbourne in Round 8.

Justin Longmuir’s side is 4-2-1 at Optus this season while the Tigers lost to the Eagles by 39 points the last time they were in Perth in Round 5, so the home comforts should suit Freo again.

But don’t expect a shoot-out as Freo v Tigers games in recent times have generally been low-scoring. The last five meetings have averaged a total match points of 120.

The Tigers are battling to find any consistency up forward and are yet to score above 100 this season. You’d think they would need to score at least 85 to put any scoreboard pressure on the Dockers and that is a threshold they’ve passed just once this year.

Freo currently sit third on the ladder and this is a great chance for them to establish themselves in the top four.

They’ve been criticised in the past for letting such opportunities slip but they should pass this test with flying colours.

Tip: Fremantle by 32 points.

Andrew Slevison

Melbourne v West Coast

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – MCG

With Melbourne only half a game out of the top eight, this is simply a must win for Simon Goodwin’s side who faces the struggling West Coast.

In a five-point loss to the Lions last Friday night, the Demons showed positive signs to suggest they could be on their way back to finals contention. They were a little inefficient when it counted late but they were pretty solid for much of the contest.

Last time these two clubs met in Round 10, it was the Eagles who prevailed in a comprehensive 35-point victory at Optus Stadium.

But having to fail to record another victory since that match, and on the back of a largely uncompetitive 61-point home loss to Hawthorn, the Eagles aren't entering this game with enviable form.

Furthermore, the Eagles still yet to record a victory away from home this season and if the Demons are to play finals football in 2024, they must win on Sunday at the MCG.

Tip: Melbourne by 29 points.

Tom Williams

St Kilda v Sydney

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The number one seed in Sydney head to Melbourne to face arguably the most out of form team in the competition in the Saints.

To add salt to St Kilda’s wounds, Max King has been ruled out for the rest of the year due to a PCL injury.

Given the Saints are a team that can’t kick a score, losing their best forward and bail out target is a massive blow.

On the flipside, the Swans suffered their first loss since Round 3 on the weekend against Fremantle and it sounds silly but that appears to be a loss they needed to have.

They’ll head to Marvel Stadium on Sunday with avenges and some fire in their belly knowing on a bad day they can be beaten by teams like the Dockers and the Saints (on their best day).

The Swans have won their last five games at Marvel Stadium so the idea that they Swans might struggle under the roof is false and in fact it’s the opposite as the fast and dry conditions suit their style of play.

Unfortunately for the Saints, they’re complete bereft of all confidence and it’s almost impossible to fathom them knocking off the Swans.

Tipping the likes of Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey to be too slick for the Saints and the constant service to their forwards will see them kick at least 15 goals under the roof.

Tip: Sydney by 38 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Brisbane v Adelaide

Sunday - 4:10pm AEST – Gabba

The Brisbane Lions are finally placed in the top eight for the first time this season since Opening Round (where only eight teams played), they will be looking to continue their good form when hosting the Adelaide Crows at the Gabba this Sunday.

In order to cement themselves in an incredibly tight top eight, the Lions must win this to continue their ascent towards finals.

Despite a positive win against GWS last week, Adelaide currently sit 14th on the ladder with just five wins (and a draw) and finals football looking beyond them this season.

When they last met in Round 9 at the Adelaide Oval, the end result was a draw. Will lightning strike twice? It’s unlikely, but you never know what such a tight season will bring.

But the Lions really should be able to pick up four points over a Crows side that lacks threatening firepower to the naked eye.

After losing their first three at the Gabba this season, the Lions have gathered themselves to claim their last four at home and they should continue on their merry way.

Tip: Brisbane by 24 points.

Tom Williams