Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 18

Nine games of footy await fans in Round 18 with the finals beginning to appear on the horizon.

The round begins on Friday night at the MCG with Collingwood playing again, this time against Geelong in a clash that could decide the fate of their campaign.

Following that Friday night clash, Saturday has several interesting games with Hawthorn v Fremantle, Western Bulldogs v Carlton and Melbourne v Essendon potential top-eight shaping clashes.

On Sunday, the Suns and Power meet in another ladder-implicating clash.

With Hawthorn sitting 13th at the start of the round with an 8-8 record and only out of the eight by four points, wins and losses here will really begin separating the ladder as several teams above them face off in big games.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Collingwood v Geelong      

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – MCG

What an enormous game this shapes as between two Victorian heavyweights fighting to earn a spot in the top eight.

Collingwood enters the round outside the top eight and running out of time to get healthy and get into a position to defend their premiership.

Geelong meanwhile sits only two points outside of the top four, having won two in a row and are building momentum nicely.

The Pies lose Brody Mihocek and Jeremy Howe, but Darcy Cameron and Isaac Quaynor are expected to play, while Jamie Elliott and John Noble could return from injuries.

Meanwhile the Cats will surely recall Ollie Henry and have a call to make in the ruck as to whether they stick with Mark Blicavs and Sam De Koning or bring back Rhys Stanley.

These two sides played two high scoring games last year, with both teams exceeding 100 points in both matches. Jeremy Cameron booted seven in the last meeting and looms as the key man to stop.

The Cats come in with better form and fewer key outs, but Collingwood has found a way to survive all year despite personnel issues.

They’ll bring the pressure and heat late and force Geelong’s stars to stand up, but without Mihocek and Howe and with Elliott in his first game back, who can kick a winning score for the Magpies?

Despite those questions, it’s hard not to believe in Collingwood until they are dead and buried.

Tip: Collingwood by 4 points

Nic Negrepontis

Hawthorn v Fremantle           

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – UTAS Stadium

What an intriguing match we have set for us on Saturday in Launceston.

This matchup is between two of the most in-form teams in the competition despite the Hawks sitting 13th and the Dockers 10 spots higher in 3rd.

Looking at their recent records, both sides are 4-1 across their last five. In Round 17, Hawthorn went down to Geelong while Fremantle took care of Richmond.

In this battle, there’s no doubt that the midfield will have a big say with both sides dominant in that area. For Freo, they’ll be led by Luke Jackson who has a big matchup with Lloyd Meek in the ruck as Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Hayden Young meet the likes of Will Day, Jai Newcombe and James Worpel.

At either end of the ground, Josh Treacy is by far the most dangerous player with Mitch Lewis out injured and he’s coming off a bag of five against the Tigers.

On paper, Fremantle probably has the edge, but this game isn’t played on paper and instead will happen in Launceston.

Looking at the venue, you couldn’t get anything further from Perth in terms of what Freo are used to and they’re 1-6 in their last seven at the ground.

Conversely, the Hawks are 4-0 in their last four at Launceston.

If you’re a believer in just picking the better side, it’s Freo. If the venue and conditions play into it, you’re probably picking Hawthorn.

It’s tight, but the Tassie factor is just too hard to ignore here.

Tip: Hawthorn by 4 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Sydney v North Melbourne

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – SCG

The competition’s pacesetters, the Sydney Swans, have plummeted back down to earth over the past fortnight.

John Longmire’s Swans have lost to Fremantle (1 point) and St Kilda (2 points) in the last two weeks, but given their early-season dominance, they still remain two games clear on top of the ladder.

North Melbourne won for the second time in five weeks by beating Gold Coast last week. Alastair Clarkson’s Roos are much improved since their bye and are now off the bottom after their second triumph.

The last time these sides met in Round 10 last year, the Roos were beaten by three points in cruel fashion due to an interchange infringement.

But are they good enough to beat the flag favourites at the SCG?

The Swans have won the last seven meetings between the two clubs as well as 10 of the last 11 clashes. However, six results within that seven-match streak have been by 14 points or less (and three single-digit margins) showing how competitive North has been.

Swans captain Callum Mills will play for the first time in 2024 after a pre-season shoulder injury. It may offset the loss of the suspended Isaac Heeney (provided he his one-match ban does stand).

You get the feeling that the Swans, despite losing back-to-back matches, are still playing well enough. They had 27 scoring shots against the Saints and only inaccuracy cost them.

The wider expectation is that the Swans will bounce back and that’s exactly what we are expecting… but the Roos likely won’t be pushovers.

Tip: Sydney by 22 points.

Andrew Slevison

Western Bulldogs v Carlton  

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Western Bulldogs were easily beaten by Port Adelaide last weekend which denied them a spot in the top eight.

Many fancied the Bulldogs to win on the road, but the absence of injured duo Liam Jones and Cody Weightman proved costly. So did a tardy beginning in conceding five goals and kicking none in the first term.

Carlton dominated GWS early, leading by 33 points at quarter-time, but eventually lost by 12 points. That was the Blues’ first defeat in six games, but they did not drop from second spot.

This is 11th taking on 2nd with only 12 points separating them on the ladder, highlighting just how close this season really is.

Carlton captain Patrick Cripps plays his 200th game on Saturday afternoon. He is in arguably career-best form with 114 disposals and 39 clearances in his last three outings. Will he go head-to-head with Marcus Bontempelli?

The Giants had success in tagging Sam Walsh last week. Will the Dogs do the same?

It will also be intriguing to see what the Dogs do in defence without Jones and now James O’Donnell. Aaron Naughton is also out concussed, meaning he is not an option to move back. It leaves forward-turned-defender Rory Lobb with a big job to do on Charlie Curnow or Harry McKay. The result could depend on what happens inside Carlton’s forward 50.

The winner of the last seven matchups between these two sides has been: Dogs / Blues / Dogs / Blues / Dogs / Blues / Dogs.

While it’s no given, that sequence should continue with the Blues to get up in an arm wrestle.

Tip: Carlton by 15 points.

Andrew Slevison

Adelaide v St Kilda

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The Saints will head to Adeliade full of confidence having beaten the Sydney Swans last week in a thriller.

The Crows have had a poor month of footy but put up a more than respectful performance against Brisbane last week up at the Gabba.

When looking at the odds for this game, we couldn't believe the Saints were such outsiders especially considering the Crows will be without their best player in Izak Rankine.

Rankine's importance in this team can't be underplayed with his ability to turn the game in just a matter of minutes being a skill very few plays hold.

Rankine's availabity is the reason why we have the Saints causing an upset in foreign territory.

Ross Lyon's Saints were able to turn around a 30-point deficity to produce one of the upsets of the season in what was their best performance from the year.

They'll take loads of confidence from that win and see the trip to Adelaide as a real opportunity to string back to back wins together.

Tipping the Saints to cause an upset.

Tip: St Kilda by 14 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Melbourne v Essendon

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

No Max Gawn – no Christian Petracca and Melbourne’s season absolutely on the line in the next three weeks, what have the Demons got left?

We’ll find out when they face a roaring Essendon side this weekend.

Do the Bombers have the maturity to come into a game favourites and take down a quality side in order to prove their top four credentials?

This feels like a match-up that will be greatly decided above the shoulders between a team that has won a flag and is now just holding on against a team that is attempting to prove their credentials.

Essendon won this match-up last year in Gather Round, double teaming Gawn and beating the Dees up around the ball. However, they won’t have to this time given his absence.

Both teams are excellent at dominating field position and locking the ball in the forward half, but generally struggle to convert that into scores. Whoever is more efficient and the team that controls the midfield battle will likely win this game.

The Bombers are in better form. They’re healthier. They’re ready to lock themselves into the top four.

Tip: Essendon by 11 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – People First Stadium

Sunday afternoon’s clash against Port Adelaide stands as somewhat of a do-or-die match for the Gold Coast Suns as they look to play finals football for the first time in their history.

Following a very disappointing loss to an improving North Melbourne side last week, which extended their away woes, and a wrist injury to co-captain Touk Miller (who will miss four weeks) the Suns will need to win at home.

After a tough month, the Power have started to hit some form with a 48-point win over the Western Bulldogs which has put them a game clear in the top eight (and just two points in arrears of the four).

The midfield unit of captain Connor Rozee, vice-captain Zak Butters, Brownlow Medallist Ollie Wines and young gun Jason Horne-Francis was dominant against the Dogs, which will give Damien Hardwick something to think about.

The Power also boasts a 14-game winning streak over the Suns who beat them in their debut season back in 2011, but have not beaten them since.

However, the Suns are still yet to lose a game at People First Stadium this year which gives them a narrow edge in this.

It seems hard to trust Gold Coast after last week’s performance, but a perfect home ground record and some stern words from the coach make Hardwick’s side the favourites in a massive clash that will determine whether or not they are a legitimate finals contender.

Tip: Gold Coast by 8 points.

Tom Williams

Richmond v GWS  

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG

Richmond has never lost to GWS at the MCG, but that looks likely to change on Sunday afternoon.

In dour winter conditions, it’s going to be hard for the 18th-placed Tigers to kick any semblance of a winning score, given they’re the worst offensive side so far in 2024 – particularly against GWS who kicked 116 last week against Carlton.

In that game, the Giants kicked 14 goals to 3 across the second and third terms and you’d almost expect them to turn it on for a half of footy again to get the job done.

A win here for GWS would send them to 10-7 and help them really rebuild their season.

For Richmond, they’re behind North Melbourne in last by percentage at 2-14 and they probably wouldn’t mind staying there as long as they keep getting some important game time into their youngsters.

It’s not only Richmond that GWS has a problem against at the MCG though, given they’re 1-5 in their last six at the venue including the heartbreaking 2023 Preliminary Final loss to Collingwood.

Surely that form line changes this week though, given the obvious matchup advantages the Giants possess all over the ground.

Tip: GWS by 39 points.

Lachlan Geleit

West Coast v Brisbane

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Optus Stadium

After parting ways with premiership coach Adam Simpson during the week, West Coast begins its post-Simpson era on Sunday. (Well, at least he gets to toss the coin).

The Brisbane Lions have gained serious momentum after winning their last five matches to cement themselves in the top eight with the four now within reach.

Chris Fagan’s side will look to continue their impressive form in a game they are expected to win comfortably. And with West Coast losing their last three matches at Optus Stadium, they look to be less of a threat at home than they did in the earlier stages of the season.

Brisbane midfielders Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley should be able to dominate a less experienced Eagles unit which will in turn give forwards Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron plenty of scoring chances.

The Lions have won five on the trot and if they can quickly silence the home crowd and avoid the post-coach bounce, they should be able to easily collect the four points and continue their good form as they surge towards finals.

Tip: Brisbane by 33 points.

Tom Williams