Cam Smith and Denan Kemp’s Origin III picks and Wally Lewis Medal predictions

Queensland great Cameron Smith is backing the Maroons to win the 2024 State of Origin series at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night.

With the series tied at 1-1 following NSW’s 38-18 win at the MCG, Smith is picking the Maroons to close out the best-of-three campaign in Brisbane.

He’s picking Billy Slater’s side to prevail 20-18 and his SEN 1170 Captain’s Run co-host and former Bronco Denan Kemp is also picking a Queensland victory with a scoreline of 24-12.

Smith: “It’s going to be a tight one. It has to be a tight one.

“I'm going to go Queensland, and I'm going to go 20 points to 18.

“Three tries each and they're going to be separated by a penalty goal to the Maroons.

“Val Holmes is going to go 4/4 with his kicks and he’s going to get us home by two points.”

Kemp: “I'm going 24-12 to Queensland.

“I'm just backing the boys in and sending positive vibes out there.”

As for Man of the Match, Smith is picking last year’s Player of the Series Reuben Cotter, while Kemp is picking the 2022 winner of that award, Patrick Carrigan.

As for the Wally Lewis Medal itself, the duo are picking captain Daly Cherry-Evans – who has never won the award before despite making his QLD debut in 2013.

Smith: “Man of the Match tonight is going to be Reuben Cotter.

“I think it's going to be a really physical battle in the middle, so I think Reuben Cotter.

“The Wally Lewis medallist it's going to have to go to the skipper Daly Cherry-Evans.

“He got Man of the Match in Game I and again I think he’ll be one of the top performers tonight for Queensland.”

Kemp: “My man of the Match is going to be Patrick Carrigan.

“I think he's been really good, and I just think that at Suncorp and given the Broncos are struggling it's a good opportunity to get that frustration out as well.

“He's made for that big, physical kind of battle, but he’s also got enough fitness to go with a fast game.

“For the Wally Lewis Medal, I've got DCE too. If we are to win the series, it really can't go to anyone else.

“He’s going to have to play really well for that to happen (Queensland win the series).”

Smith: “He's going to have to have another big game tonight for us to win.”

For first try-scorer, Smith is picking Zac Lomax to cross over first while Kemp is picking Holmes to score for the first time in the 2024 series after being moved to a wing.

Kemp: “First try-scorer?”

Smith: “Well, I'm going to go the Blues’ way with Lomax. I reckon they'll target his wing again and give him an opportunity out there.”

Kemp: “I'm going to go Valentine home on the wing. He's got a great, incredible record out of the wing in Origin.”

Smith's predictions

Scoreline: QLD 20 - 18 NSW
Player of the Match: Reuben Cotter (QLD)
Wally Lewis Medal: Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD)
First try-scorer: Zac Lomax (NSW)

Kemp's predictions

Scoreline: QLD 24 - 12 NSW
Player of the Match: Patrick Carrigan (QLD)
Wally Lewis Medal: Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD)
First try-scorer: Valentine Holmes (QLD)

Wednesday’s Game III begins at 8:05 pm (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium. Listen to all of the action LIVE on the SEN app with your choice of three calls – Maroons Radio, Blues Radio and SEN Origin to pick from.