Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 19

Round 19 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some intriguing games ahead over the weekend.

With the ladder separated by just eight points from second to 13th, all but one game this weekend could have huge finals implications.

Essendon and Adelaide open the round at Marvel Stadium, while huge clashes between Hawthorn and Collingwood as well as Geelong and the Western Bulldogs await fans on Saturday.

The jewel of Round 19 is no doubt the early Sunday clash between Brisbane and Sydney at the Gabba.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Essendon v Adelaide               

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

In their second meeting of the year, Adelaide will be hoping to take revenge against Essendon having gone down to the Dons by three points in controversial fashion in Round 6.

Since that game, things have changed dramatically with Essendon looking like a finals side, while a loss here would just about rule Adelaide out of playing in September for the seventh straight season.

While Essendon are only two points off second, a loss here at home could also be disastrous as they could have to go 3-2 in their following five fixtures in order to play finals. That won’t be easy with St Kilda, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Sydney and Brisbane (away) on their run home.

With so much relying on the result, you’d expect this battle to be hard-fought, although both teams aren’t afraid to score, and we could see somewhat of a shootout under the roof.

One key to the result is Adelaide skipper Jordan Dawson. In Round 6 he had 31 disposals to go with two goals and nine tackles. If he has that kind of impact again his team is well and truly in it. If he is somewhat shut down, the game swings further in Essendon’s favour.

The Dons have also won their last seven games against Adelaide … is this the game that tide turns?

While it is no doubt a danger game for Brad Scott’s side, you’ve got to back them against the Crows on exposed form this season, particularly with Izak Rankine still sidelined due to suspension.

Tip: Essendon by 20 points.

Lachlan Geleit

GWS v Gold Coast           

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – ENGIE Stadium

The Suns are still searching for their first win away from home this season and it doesn’t get any easier against the Giants.

GWS’ record over the Suns is dominant with Adam Kingsley’s side winning 12 of the last 13 games including their most recent clash during Gather Round where last year’s preliminary finalists won by 28 points.

Both teams head into this fixture as last start winners with the Giants beating Richmond at the MCG whereas the Suns were able to overcome their loss to North Melbourne a fortnight ago against Port Adelaide.

On the team’s front, the Giants will be without star midfielder Stephen Coniglio due to his troublesome shoulder injury and that is a big out against Gold Coast’s talented midfield.

The Suns will head into this game as dominant favourites and that’s fair enough given their form and Gold Coast’s inability to win away from home.

Toby Greene was at his vintage best with ten score involvements and four goals from 17 touches and the Suns don’t have an obvious matchup for the skipper.

If the Suns are to be competitive, the likes of Noah Anderson, Sam Flanders, Touk Miller and Matt Rowell will need to dominant in the guts and look to expose GWS’ backline without star defender Sam Taylor.

Tipping a close game here.

Tip: GWS by 14 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

St Kilda v West Coast

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

What version of St Kilda are we going to see on Saturday afternoon?

Two weeks ago, they mustered a stunning performance against the flag favourites, becoming just the third team to taste victory over Sydney this season.

Then last week they were held to their second-lowest score ever under the leadership of Ross Lyon.

They’ll welcome a West Coast side who hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire lately either, with the Eagles entering the round riding the wave of a seven-game losing streak.

West Coast did mount a surprisingly valiant performance against Brisbane in Round 18 in their first game after sacking Adam Simpson, however they’ve clearly slipped since their mid-year patch of competitive form.

The Saints and the Eagles faced off just six weeks ago, with St Kilda claiming a 14-point victory in a scrappy affair.

With these two sides sitting exactly in the same positions as when they met in Round 12, there is no reason to expect anything different this time around.

It won’t be pretty, but St Kilda should get the job done once again.

Tip: St Kilda by 14 points.

Jack Makeham

Hawthorn v Collingwood  

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – MCG

The reigning premiers’ title defence is hanging by a thread and their path to the top eight goes through the rising Hawks.

Can Collingwood muster up one last push, take down Hawthorn and Richmond before needing to beat two of Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne? It all starts here.

They beat the Hawks earlier in the season by five points during Gather Round, withstanding a four-goal-to-zero final term to win.

Blake Hardwick played forward, kicking four goals, while ex-Pie Jack Ginnivan booted two.

Assuming he gets up for the game, he will likely face a hostile atmosphere from the Collingwood faithful – how will that energy affect the game?

The biggest question revolves around Hawthorn skipper James Sicily, who was so banged up with his shoulder injury that he had to be moved forward against Freo.

Does he start forward this weekend or do the Hawks roll the dice with him in defence once again. He’s admitted that his shoulder is not in a great way.

He is clearly the club’s most important player and if he doesn’t have a big impact, they likely don’t win.

Teams have beaten the Pies in the last few weeks by playing keepings off, taking over 100 uncontested marks. Do the Hawks have the discipline to do similarly?

Hawthorn has all the momentum. Can the veteran Magpies make one last push? We’re not giving up on them until they are truly dead.

Tip: Collingwood by 5 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium

Just a few weeks ago Geelong had been criticised for dropping off after six losses in seven games, but the Cats have since won three in a row and now sit inside the top four.

The 20-point win over Collingwood last week reminded the footy public that Chris Scott’s side remains a premiership threat in 2024.

The Western Bulldogs, despite being undermanned, bounced back with a strong 14-point win over second-placed Carlton.

As a result, Luke Beveridge’s Dogs sit just one game outside the top eight which makes this a crucial contest in the context of the campaign.

While the Dogs did beat the Blues, they did concede 15 shots to Charlie Curnow (3.7) and Harry McKay (3.2) who combined for 6.9. The presence of Jeremy Cameron does pose somewhat of a threat for the Bulldogs’ backline given he’s been playing closer to goal of late, kicking 12.13 across the last four weeks.

Down the other end, Aaron Naughton is expected to return from concussion which will bolster the Doggies’ attack after Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Rhylee West booted four goals each last week.

The Cats, who beat the Dogs by four points in Gather Round, have won 11 of their last 12 meetings with the Dogs at GMHBA Stadium. But the Dogs won at the venue last time they met in Round 24, 2023.

We’re certainly not ruling the Dogs out but the Cats are playing pretty good footy at the moment and should make it four on the trot to strengthen their flag credentials.

Tip: Geelong by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison

Port Adelaide v Richmond

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide missed the chance to move into the top four by losing to the Suns on the Gold Coast last week.

The 14-point loss has them sitting ninth ahead of Round 19 and in desperate need of four points to push back into the finals muck.

They get a great opportunity against a travelling Richmond side that has lost four in a row during which time they have failed to get within four goals of their opposition.

While the last win from Adem Yze’s Tigers did come against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval in Round 13, this situation seems a little different in that Ken Hinkley’s Power are challenging for a spot in the eight.

The last time the two sides met was at the MCG in Round 2 when Port trailed at half-time before eventually shaking the Tigers off to win by 30 points. The Tigers scored 92 that day which stands as their highest score so far this season. The Power piled on 18.14 with Todd Marshall booting four.

Richmond has been conceding big numbers to opposition midfielders this year which bodes well for Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis. The Tigers lose the concussed Tim Taranto which leaves their on-ball unit weakened drastically. That is where Port can assert their authority on the contest.

The Tigers were much improved against the Giants last week but conceded 17.6 from 36 inside 50s which does show they are vulnerable at the back if the ball is moved quickly.

With much more on the line, the fact they’re playing at home, a much more damaging midfield and against an opponent that has scored the fewest points competition-wide in 2024, the Power should be getting the job done comfortably.

A spot in the eight is up for grabs and the Power should deliver for their hungry fans.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 33 points.

Andrew Slevison

Brisbane v Sydney   

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – Gabba

Without a doubt, the match of the round takes place at the Gabba with ladder-leaders Sydney hosting a red-hot Brisbane who sit fourth to start Round 19.

While the Swans are clearly the best side in it so far in 2024, percentage suggests that the Lions might just be second as they’re the only two teams with percentages of 120 or more.

After losing their first three at home in 2024, the Lions have since pulled off five straight wins at the Gabba and the Swans will be hard-pressed to find victory.

Despite this, the Swans have won two of their last four at the venue, and in their form so far this season, they won’t be scared of any team, anywhere.

The result could rest on the shoulders of Brisbane star Lachie Neale who has been in hot form in recent weeks. If he is shut down even somewhat by James Jordon or James Rowbottom, Sydney probably bat a bit deeper on-ball and can get on top in that area.

As always, Brisbane will rely on their high-powered offence to kick a score that the opposition simply can’t reach. With Charlie Cameron out suspended though, that’ll be easier said than done.

We’d pick Brisbane against all the other 16 teams in the competition at the moment at home. But Sydney has just been too good in 2024 to pick against, even though they’re 1-2 over their last three.

Expect a great game, perhaps this is the 2024 Grand Final preview?

Tip: Sydney by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Fremantle v Melbourne    

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – Optus Stadium

After an impressive win over Essendon last week, Melbourne head into Sunday’s clash against Fremantle with strong momentum.

However, despite a disappointing 13-point loss to Hawthorn last week, Fremantle still remain as one of the most in form sides in the competition, sitting fifth on the AFL ladder.

Out of the eight games at Optus stadium this season, the Dockers have maintained a healthy home record with five wins two losses and one draw.

The last time they played the Demons as well, they completely dominated in Alice Springs, winning 49-141 in Alice Springs just last month.

With Melbourne skipper Max Gawn unlikely to play due to injury along with the continual absence of Christian Petracca, Fremantle’s midfielder’s in Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Luke Jackson will look to dominate the midfield battle.

Whilst Melbourne may be on the up, it seems unlikely that they will cause an upset making Fremantle the expected victors in a tight contest.

Tip: Fremantle by 17 points.

Tom Williams

Carlton v North Melbourne

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Carlton are currently facing a bump in the road in an otherwise positive season with back to back losses to Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs.

As Micheal Voss’ side push towards a top four finish for the first time since 2000, they simply must beat the struggling North Melbourne and get back to winning form.

With North Melbourne recording only two wins for the season, Carlton should be able to comfortably get the four points and strengthen their place in the top four.

With 91 goals between them this season, Blues power forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay should prove too much for a less experienced North Melbourne backline in what is expected to be a high scoring affair at Marvel Stadium.

Therefore, if Carlton are a serious premiership contender this year, this match looms as a huge opportunity to gain the four points and some percentage.

Tip: Carlton by 41 points.

Tom Williams