The stat that has produced 17 of the last 18 premiers and the three teams leading the way in 2024

While there is the actual AFL ladder, which has been a major point of focus in recent weeks, Champion Data prefers to go by what they perceive to be the ‘real ladder’.

The ‘real ladder’ is based on the points differential from turnover for each team with the best differentials often going a long way to deciding each season’s premiers.

In 17 of the last 18 seasons, the premiers have sat in the top three for the score from turnover differentials competition-wide.

Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne defines a turnover as: When you win the ball back off the opposition and your ability to score off that. Or when you cough the ball up to the opposition and how well you defend that opposition possession.

“People hate that I keep saying this, but I’ll back history until history changes,” Hoyne said on SEN’s Sportsday.

“The number one go-to that we constantly refer to is: how is your turnover game and where is that actually poised?

“So the points differential from turnover is the ‘real ladder’.

“Why is it the ‘real ladder’? Because 17 of the last 18 premiers have been top three. Not top six, not top eight, but top three in the turnover game.

“So it’s 60 per cent (or more) of your score (being from turnover).

“I think this is going to tell a really interesting story in terms of where the competition is at.”

While the top four of the ‘real ladder’ is the same as the actual ladder right now, Hoyne wanted to highlight that these teams are being considered as premiership threats due to their scoring from turnover profile rather than their current ladder position.

Champion Data’s ‘real ladder’

(Turnover points differential in brackets)

1 - Sydney (+280)

2 - Carlton (+276)

3 - Brisbane (+201)

4 - Fremantle (+181)

5 - Geelong (+112)

Hoyne pointed out that the Swans - the league’s tearaway leaders - were in front by a fair margin at the midway point of the season.

However, their form has somewhat dipped in recent weeks with three defeats in their last four games which has seen them come back to the pack.

Whereas Fremantle and Brisbane have both entered the conversation due to their more recent run of form and a stronger turnover profile.

“I just want to take you back to two months ago when Sydney were +261 points,” Hoyne added.

“They were double the next best team in the comp who were Geelong at +132.

“That gap between Sydney and the next best has gone from double to just hanging on to a slender lead at number one in the competition in the most important aspect of the game.

“Fremantle weren’t even in consideration at Round 11. They were that far outside. Now they’re just outside that bracket of the top three.

“Brisbane week a mile back at +82. They were going ok but a long way back from actually getting into that grouping. Carlton were +101 in fourth.”

Regarding the Blues, according to the numbers they still hold a strong turnover profile despite some other sections of their game not being as bright as they have been.

“Carlton is one of the best teams in the comp at scoring from turnover and clearly the hardest team in the competition to score against from it (turnover),” Hoyne said further.

“Whilst we’re all looking for things with Carlton at the moment, are we concerned? Maybe there’s a little bit of an interest in terms of personnel - who is their second key defender? Now Tom De Koning is out (what do they do?)… that’s all legitimate talk.

“But in terms of what’s happening from a system perspective, the Blues are in strong shape.”

So in conclusion, at this particular point of the season, Champion Data has Sydney, Carlton and Brisbane as the most likely to go on and contend for the premiership.

But with five rounds to play there is still a chance that another team or two pops its head up to be considered a genuine threat based on their scoring differential from turnover.

The fun and games will continue in Round 20 as the race for finals and the flag heats up.

Listen to Full On Footy analysis with Hoyne below: