Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 20

Round 20 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some fascinating games ahead this weekend.

With just four games remaining after this round, results over the next few days could shape how September stacks up.

Proceedings open with a big Friday night clash between Carlton and Port Adelaide before Saturday plays host to the Q-Clash, Saints v Dons, Dees v Giants, and the Western Derby.

Sunday also has some intriguing matchups with the Pies facing traditional rivals the Tigers, the Swans hosting the Dogs at the SCG and the Crows playing the in-form Hawks to wrap things up.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Carlton v Port Adelaide               

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Carlton did enough to overcome North Melbourne last week.

The hard-fought 19-point win saw Michael Voss’ Blues return to second spot – a strong position from which to launch a top-four bid.

Port Adelaide were neck and neck with Richmond until kicking clear in the final term to win by 41 points.

Ken Hinkley’s Power are just four points off the Blues which makes this is a crucial encounter under the Marvel Stadium roof.

These two sides last met in Round 12 when the Blues won by 36 points in Adelaide with Sam Walsh picking up 34 touches and laying 13 tackles.

Walsh’s midfield partner, captain Patrick Cripps, is in remarkable form. He has racked up 171 disposals and 59 clearance in his last five. But he has only averaged 23 touches in his last four outings against Port.

Much could depend on the midfield battle of Cripps, Walsh and George Hewett versus Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis.

Whoever gets the upper hand in that area of the ground should be able to feed their in-form forwards with Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay doing the main damage for the Blues, while Power veteran Charlie Dixon returned to form with four goals last week. His teammate Mitch Georgiades has kicked 18 goals in his last six games including a haul of four against the Blues in that Round 12 meeting.

Carlton has won the last three clashes with the Power who had previously won six in a row over the Blues, and that streak could stretch to four.

It’s a massive, massive game with second hosting seventh under the Marvel lid and we’re tipping a very tight affair given what’s at stake in terms of top four and top eight machinations.

Tip: Carlton by 6 points.

Andrew Slevison

North Melbourne v Geelong            

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Blundstone Arena

North Melbourne has not beaten Geelong since 2015, with the last four results having an average losing margin of 77 points.

None of that bodes well for this clash at Blundstone Arena on Saturday afternoon, but the Kangaroos are certainly on an upward trajectory.

Since the bye, they have beaten Gold Coast, while pushing Collingwood, Melbourne, Carlton and the Bulldogs.

They’ve essentially got their full strength 22, with the return of Griffin Logue allowing Charlie Comben to play as their secondary key forward – improving both lines.

Tristan Xerri will have a big advantage in the ruck against Sam De Koning and should give a strong Kangaroos midfield first use. The question will be whether they can control stoppage and clearance for four quarters given their fourth-quarter drop offs this season.

Don’t expect this to be a blowout in Hobart. The Roos will be ultra-competitive, but the Cats should still have a few gears in them that North Melbourne can’t match across four quarters.

Tip: Geelong by 13 points

Nic Negrepontis

Gold Coast v Brisbane

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – People First Stadium

Brisbane knocked off premiership favourites the Sydney Swans by two points last weekend.

It was the Lions’ seventh win on the trot which has Chris Fagan’s outfit nicely placed in third position after winning just three of their first nine fixtures.

Gold Coast lost to GWS by 39 points as their winless away run stretched to nine games in 2024.

They have dropped six points outside the eight now which is expected to make life difficult as Damien Hardwick strives to take them to September for the very first time.

The two clubs last met in Round 8 when the Lions saluted by 34 points at the Gabba. On that occasion, Lions pair Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko combined for 74 disposals, 25 marks, 16 score involvements, 13 tackles and 12 inside 50s.

Dual Brownlow Medallist Neale was kept to a season-low 18 touches by the Swans last weekend, his lowest tally since he had 17 against the Suns in Round 20 last year.

From a Suns perspective, their forward line will come up against a Lions defence that will be without co-captain Harris Andrews (concussion) as well as Darragh Joyce (jaw), Jack Payne (foot), Tom Doedee (knee) and Darcy Gardiner (knee).

That presents as a great opportunity for Ben King to take complete control of a game of footy. He had a horror in front of goal last weekend (0.3 from seven shots), but has still booted 45 majors this season.

The Suns are yet to lose at People First Stadium in 2024. They are 7-0 at the venue with an average winning margin of 24 points, but the Lions have won 10 of the past 11 Q-Clashes.

While the Suns are excellent at home, a rampaging Lions side is a different test and they should assert their authority over their Queensland rivals.

Tip: Brisbane by 10 points.

Andrew Slevison

St Kilda v Essendon         

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

In their second meeting of the year, St Kilda will be hoping to take revenge for their four-point loss in Round 3.

Since that clash, the teams have taken separate paths in 2024, with Essendon sitting in the top eight with five rounds remaining while St Kilda – who played finals in 2023 – appears destined to miss out this campaign.

While the Dons are seven spots higher on the ladder than the Saints, their recent form isn’t strong with losses in five of their last seven. St Kilda has won two of their last three including a victory against ladder-leaders Sydney.

In Round 3, Essendon controlled the footy on the outside with Nic Martin (44 disposals) in particular filling up across half back.

With the way the Saints play, Essendon’s defenders will probably fill up again, but Ross Lyon will hope that means that they don’t put up a winning score.

While the Saints can get the job done here, Essendon probably have a little bit too much firepower in front of the footy to completely shut down.

Unless the Saints can do that, the pick has to be Essendon based on 2024 performances.

Either way, it’ll be a pivotal result whether or not the Dons play finals footy this campaign.

Tip: Essendon by 16 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Melbourne v GWS

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

With their season hanging on by a thread, can the Demons mount a bounce back effort against a Giants squad that is on a roll?

Melbourne was taken to the cleaners by Fremantle for the second time this season last week, falling to the Dockers by 50 points in an effort that was somehow a better showing than their previous clash back in Round 12.

The loss halted the momentum that the Demons had been gathering through the early days of July and ensured a top eight berth remained tantalisingly out of reach for the time being.

Meanwhile, GWS find themselves on the other end of the momentum scale, having convincingly triumphed in their last three games and looking far closer to the dynamic squad that burst out of the gates at the season's beginning.

The Demons struggled through the midfield last week against the Dockers, and the Giants will likely look to follow in Fremantle’s footsteps by replicating this approach at the coalface.

If Melbourne can rediscover some of their magic through the engine room, they’re more than capable of taming the orange tsunami on their home turf.

If they can’t, the Giants are poised to claim their fourth win on the trot and continue their surge into September.

Tip: GWS by 16 points.

Jack Makeham

Fremantle v West Coast

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Optus Stadium

Remember when West Coast won this matchup a few months ago? The Eagles not only stole the four points, they monstered the Dockers, leading by 10 goals at one point.

It now looks like one of the stranger results of the season, given the Eagles have returned to their bottom-dwelling and have sacked coach Adam Simpson, while Freo loos like a bona fide top four side.

The Dockers have smashed Melbourne and Richmond and beaten Sydney at the SCG in the last month, with the tight loss to Hawthorn in Tassie the only blip.

Their midfield is in white-hot form and their clearance braining of the Demons was borderline historic last weekend.

Meanwhile West Coast have not received any kind of new-coach boost since sacking Simpson. They have been particularly listless across the last fortnight.

Expect the Dockers to want some revenge too in their home Derby for April’s embarrassment.

Predicting a bloodbath here.

Tip: Fremantle by 70 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Collingwood v Richmond       

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – MCG

The reigning premiers against the likely wooden spooners.

If you were to predict how this game was going to go just a month ago, it’d be Collingwood by how much.

But with the Magpies losing their last four and most recently going down to Hawthorn by 66 points, who knows what to make of Craig McRae’s side?

Surely there’s just too much talent still in this Collingwood side to get the job done though, particularly against a Tigers side that’s won just twice in 2024 and has all of Josh Gibcus, Jack Graham, Dylan Grimes, Mykelti Lefau, Tom Lynch, Toby Nankervis, Jack Ross and Tylar Young out.

While the Pies also have their fair share of injuries, it just can’t be an excuse this week and they simply must win if they’re any chance of playing finals in 2024.

It’s genuinely a last chance saloon for the Pies here and a loss would absolutely be the final nail in their coffin.

While we’re not expecting Collingwood to get back to their best – given how far they are from it at the moment – they should just be too strong all over the park player-for-player.

Tip: Collingwood by 23 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Sydney v Western Bulldogs    

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – SCG

The top-of-the-table Sydney Swans will be eager to bounce back from their nail-biting two-point loss to Brisbane by getting back to winning ways this week against the Western Bulldogs.

During last week’s loss, Sydney suffered significant blows on the injury front with forward Tom Papley (ankle) out for 4 to 6 weeks and Dane Rampe (calf) who is also a chance to miss this week. Will Hayward also hurt his ankle but should be right for this weekend.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are gaining a serious amount of momentum after beating top eight sides Carlton and Geelong in the last two weeks to assert themselves as serious finals contenders.

The recent success of the Dogs has coincided with the move to defence of Rory Lobb, the form of Ed Richards as a midfielder and of course the leadership and brilliance of Marcus Bontempelli.

They are playing well enough to win this, however, Sydney’s record at home is too good to ignore making them favourites to get back on the winners’ list.

Winning seven out of their eight games at the SCG, the Swans should be able to out-run the Dogs late in an otherwise tight contest.

Tip: Sydney by 22 points.

Tom Williams

Adelaide v Hawthorn

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Hawthorn are fast becoming the team to watch after making light work of Collingwood last week, ultimately placing them just two points out of the top eight.

The Crows, however, have also hit some good form after beating Essendon at Marvel Stadium in an epic win last Friday night.

Unfortunately, Adelaide skipper Jordan Dawson suffered a head injury leaving him in the AFL’s concussion protocols meaning he will have to miss Sunday’s clash. Thus Adelaide’s midfield may struggle against an exciting Hawthorn outfit.

Hawthorn have played twice at Adelaide Oval already this season narrowly losing to both Collingwood (five points) and Port Adelaide (one point).

If Hawthorn are to ever get over the line in Adelaide in 2024, it must be on Sunday.

Young forwards Jack Ginivan, Nick Watson and Connor MacDonald will look to spoil the party in Adelaide and continue their recent scoring form to produce a winning score in a tight contest.

Despite a positive month for the Crows, Sam Mitchell's Hawks should be able to continue their winning form and further push themselves towards finals footy.

Tip: Hawthorn by 10 points.

Tom Williams