Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 21

Round 21 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some fascinating games ahead this weekend.

With just three games remaining after this round, results over the next few days will shape how September stacks up.

Proceedings open with two Friday night clashes between the Dogs and Dees, and also the Eagles and Suns.

Without doubt, the showpiece of the round comes on Saturday night, with Scott Pendlebury playing his 400th AFL game as traditional rivals Collingwood and Carlton meet at the MCG.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Footscray v Melbourne                

Friday - 7:15pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Western Bulldogs, or Footscray, are arguably the hottest act in the AFL right now.

Luke Beveridge’s Doggies have won their last three outings against top eight opponents after last weekend’s dominant 39-point triumph over ladder leaders the Sydney Swans.

Melbourne, on the other hand, have lost two on the trot and are in desperate need of a victory to muscle their way back into the eight.

The Demons have won four of their last five against the Dogs, dating back to the 2021 Grand Final. That includes a 45-point triumph over the Dogs at the MCG in Round 1.

But they enter this with somewhat subpar form having been beaten by GWS by two points last week after a 50-point defeat to Fremantle.

Simon Goodwin’s Dees have again found scoring reasonably hard to come by with only St Kilda, North Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond having scored less in 2024.

That presents as a challenge as Luke Beveridge has masterminded a much-improved Dogs defence which has conceded just 48 points to both the Cats and Swans over the last fortnight.

At the other end of the ground, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has hit form with four goals in each of his past three outings. He has kicked 8.6 in his last three meetings with the Dees.

While Melbourne might be out to make this a scrap in a bid to deny the free-running game of their opponents, we get the feeling that the Dogs are pretty good.

With a momentary spot in the top four up for grabs, the Doggies should get this done and pay tribute to both 250-gamer Adam Treloar and the 1954 premiership team in style.

Tip: Footscray by 14 points.

Andrew Slevison

West Coast v Gold Coast            

Friday - 8:30pm AEST – Optus Stadium

Gold Coast hasn’t won a game away from home this season, but surely Friday’s clash against West Coast at Optus Stadium presents as a perfect opportunity to change that record. 

While the Suns have lost three of their last four and five of their last seven overall, the Eagles are in even worse form with nine straight defeats and five consecutive losses at Optus Stadium.

As a result, Gold Coast should enter as favourites, particularly as they are still a chance to play finals for the first time in club history, sitting outside of the eight by eight premiership points.

It’s also the second time these sides have met this season, with the Suns winning 112-75 at People First Stadium in Round 7. 

In that game, Gold Coast co-captain Jarrod Witts was massive with one goal, 18 disposals, eight tackles, 46 hitouts and 10 clearances.

If they can dominate that midfield battle again, expect Matt Rowell to have a big say with the clearance machine earning best afield honours in the Brownlow in two of the last three meetings between the sides.

If this game came earlier in the season when West Coast were firing at home, they’d be a huge chance, but you just cannot back them on current form as they’ve only scored 80 or more twice in their last nine.

Tip: Gold Coast by 21 points.

Lachlan Geleit

North Melbourne v Richmond

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

It’s the battle for the wooden spoon on Saturday afternoon and with the loser finding themselves in pole position for the first overall draft pick, neither fanbase will be clamouring too strongly for a win.

The Kangaroos enter the clash riding the marginally better run of form, having claimed a win over the Suns back in Round 17 before dropping their next three.

Meanwhile Richmond arrives to Marvel on the crest of a six-game slide, having conceded a rough 108.3 points per game since their last win back in Round 13.

The Tigers’ porous defence will be a welcome sight for a North Melbourne outfit that has struggled mightily in attack all season, ranking 16th for average points per game and dead last for inside 50 efficiency.

The Roos haven’t had much luck against the Tigers recently, having just two wins against the yellow and black since 2016, with both of those coming at Marvel Stadium.

Richmond’s well-documented aversion to Marvel is reflected in the history books, not having tasted victory there since 2021.

However this will be their first visit to Docklands with Adem Yze at the helm, so there’s a chance a different leader results in a change in fortunes.

Regardless, this clash between the two bottom of the table teams is hard to call, likely coming down to whoever wants to escape the fate of the wooden spoon the most.

Tip: North Melbourne by 11 points.

Jack Makeham

Geelong v Adelaide          

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium

Geelong has the chance to push their top four case on Saturday afternoon, hosting the Crows at GMHBA Stadium.

When these two sides met earlier in the year, it was the Cats who won comfortably. Adelaide had no answer for Tom Stewart who picked off everything that came forward.

Geelong has won four of their last five against the Crows and will have a significant advantage at home.

The Crows were bashed by Hawthorn last weekend, a lapse in form after beating Essendon, St Kilda and GWS in the last month.

The Cats meanwhile lost their last game at the Cattery, beaten comfortably by the Bulldogs in muddy conditions.

However, they have played like a top four team generally in July and are clearly more trustworthy than Adelaide.

Expect the Cats to be far too strong at home for an Adelaide side heading towards the finish line.

Tip: Geelong by 23 points

Nic Negrepontis

Collingwood v Carlton

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

Saturday night’s huge clash will be a celebration of Scott Pendlebury’s career with the legendary Magpie playing his 400th AFL game, but can Carlton ruin his big party?

Either way, expect Pies fans to turn out in droves to celebrate the 36-year-old club legend, no less against their traditional rivals with all of the last five games between the sides having crowds of 80,000 or more.

Across Pendlebury’s career, he has played 30 career games against the Blues and has a win-loss record of 22 wins, eight losses.

One of those wins came in Rounds 8 with the Magpies prevailing 79-85 thanks to a late Nick Daicos matchwinner.

While the Pies don’t usually tag, they put a lot of defensive work into Patrick Cripps in that game holding him to just 12 effective touches. If they can do that again, it’ll go a long way to winning.

Although the recent head-to-head record and the fact that it’s Pendlebury’s 400th leans in Collingwood’s favour, the Blues have without doubt been the better team in 2024 on 48 premiership points to Collingwood’s 40.

At the moment, they’re clinging on to their top-four spot on percentage alone, with a loss here potentially a hammer blow five they’ve dropped three of their past four.

Still, though, you’ve got to have more trust in Michael Voss’ side compared to Craig McRae’s, as the Pies only snapped a four-game losing streak last week by beating 18th-placed Richmond.

Neither team is playing close to their best at the moment, and although you’d expect the Pies to get up for the occasion, you just can’t pick them against a team that’s inside the top four entering the round.

Tip: Carlton by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Port Adelaide v Sydney

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide had an impressive, hard-fought win over Carlton on the road last week which will hold them in good stead for this weekend.

The 14-point win made it known to the competition that they can match it with the best as they aim to secure a finals berth and Sydney are absolutely that.

Meanwhile, the Swans absolutely capitulated against the Dogs at home only managing to score 13 points to half-time and failed to fight back in the second half.

The Swans sit a game and a half clear on top of the ladder, and the Power sit 7th and are fighting to hold their spot inside the top eight.

The two sides last met in Round 4, 2023, where Ollie Florent’s kick after the siren famously fell short as the Power held on to a two-point win.

Florent was still judged best on the ground that day, as he recorded 33 disposals and a goal, and Finlayson starred for the Power with 18 disposals and three goals.

Suprisingly, Port Adelaide have beaten Sydney in their past seven encounters dating back to 2017, and will be keen to keep this trend rolling this weekend.

Ken Hinkley's Power are also 7-4 at the Adelaide oval this season, and the Swans are 7-3 in away games this season.

Chad Warner had 11 disposals last weekend in their embarrassing loss against the Dogs, which was his lowest number recorded since 2021, so he'll be hoping to recapture some form.

This game couldn’t be more evenly matched, as the ladder-leading Swans have struggled as of late but will be desperate to string some more wings together to lock in a home final.

From a Port Adelaide perspective, they also need to win as the competition is as evenly placed as ever. A loss could see them fall from equal fourth to ninth.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 10 points.

Noah Desta

GWS Giants v Hawthorn        

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – Manuka Oval

Hawthorn dominated Adelaide last weekend at the Adelaide Oval by 66 points.

Sam Mitchell's side are one of the most in-form sides at the moment, as they have won eight of their past nine games.

GWS beat Melbourne at the MCG by two points in a must-win encounter and they are also trending upward having won their last four games.

Hawthorn currently sit 9th on the ladder but are threatening to steal a spot in the top eight, and GWS sit 5th, but a loss could see them tumble down to the ladder.

The two sides last met in Round 13 this year, where Hawthorn won by six points due to a controversial late down-field free kick that saw Luke Breust snap a late game winner.

Xavier O’Halloran impressed in their earlier encounter in Tasmania, kicking four goals straight and collecting 15 disposals. Will Day starred for the Hawks with 26 disposals and 10 tackles.

GWS have beaten Hawthorn three out of their last five times they have played. However, in those past five games, the Giants have gone undefeated at home.

Connor MacDonald was easily best on the ground last weekend, as he recorded 28 disposals, two goals, and 14 scoring involvements.

Meanwhile, Tom Green dominated the Demons last weekend, collecting 33 touches and a goal.

This game will go down to the wire as GWS will desperately fight in order to ensure their spot in the finals. From a Hawthorn perspective, they must win as rival clubs in the eight may begin to pull away from them.

Tip: Hawthorn by 13 points.

Noah Desta

Essendon v Fremantle    

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG

Essendon will host Fremantle at the MCG (for the first time since 1999) this Sunday afternoon in what is a crucial game for both sides.

The Dockers currently sit third on the ladder with five wins form their last six whilst the Bombers now find themselves out of the top eight after dropping six of their last eight.

With the Bombers to play Gold Coast, Sydney and Brisbane following this week’s clash with Fremantle, they will need to find a way to overcome the competition’s best to feature in finals.

Unfortunately, the Bombers have not been able to consistently get the upper hand on the better sides this season with a record of four wins, five losses and one draw against the top 12 teams on the current ladder.

Fremantle's lone MCG game this season was a 54-point win over Richmond, and given the similarities between the MCG and Optus Oval, the dimensions of ground shouldn’t be a problem. They have won three of their last four at the 'G.

The hip flexor injury sustained by Jordan Ridley has dampened an Essendon backline that conceded 10 goals in the second half of last week's disastrous loss to St Kilda.

An emerging Fremantle attack of Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, Michael Frederick and co. should be able to put together enough of a winning score and cement themselves in the top four.

Tip: Fremantle by 18 points.

Tom Williams

St Kilda v Brisbane

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

St Kilda are coming into this clash with handy momentum after winning three of their last four matches.

However, the Brisbane Lions are arguably the most in-form side in the competition, alongside Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs, after winning their last eight straight.

Therefore it feels criminal to tip against the Lions right now no matter who they are facing.

Brisbane have won four of their last five at Marvel Stadium overall, including a 28-point win over the Saints in June last year and also beat the Saints 126-106 in a shootout in Round 14.

Having beaten St Kilda in their last five meetings, Brisbane should continue on their merry way as they look to march closer toward a home Qualifying Final.

Brisbane midfielders Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley are in fine form and should be able to overcome a less dominant Saints on-ball unit to collect another important win under the roof.

Tip: Brisbane by 39 points.

Tom Williams