Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 22

Round 22 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some fascinating games ahead this weekend.

With just two games remaining after this round, teams will begin locking themselves into finals with victories, while others will be eliminated altogether.

Proceedings open with a big Friday night clash between Sydney and Collingwood at the SCG before Saturday plays host to the finals-shaping clashes such as Lions v Swans and Dockers v Cats.

Sunday's first game between Carlton and Hawthorn is also a huge game that could present as a mini-Elimination Final.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Sydney v Collingwood                

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – SCG

Only a month after looking almost unbeatable, Sydney’s season is currently in freefall having lost five of their last six games. 

Their worst result came last Saturday against Port Adelaide away from home, going down by 112 points. On the other hand, Collingwood must win to keep their premiership defence alive on the back of two consecutive wins, and they’ll be ready for the challenge in Jeremy Howe’s 250th. 

What was once looking like a dead rubber is now a huge clash for both sides. 

The big question is can the ladder-leaders return to form? Or will Collingwood put another dent into their seemingly dwindling premiership hopes?

While you can’t pick the Swans on their current form, surely the team that was once 13-1 is still somewhere in there and they’ll be buoyed by their performance in Round 1 against the Pies at the MCG where they won 69-102.

In that game, Isaac Heeney dominated with two goals, 29 disposals and 10 score involvements - if he can get back to that kind of form, the Swans will win.

For the Pies, with Jordan De Goey now out for the season, they’ll be reliant on Nick Daicos to carry the side. The current leader in the AFLCA Champion Player Award has been enormous for the black and white this season and you can expect that Sydney will try and slow him down with a stopper at the contest.

On paper, this game is Sydney’s to lose with the sheer number of names that have starred for them in this campaign.

The Pies need to win to keep their season alive, and unless Daicos can dominate in the middle, the Swans should surely return to form and be too strong at home to end Collingwood’s premiership defence.

Tip: Sydney by 21 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Brisbane v GWS            

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Gabba

Brisbane continued its sparkling run with an 85-point crushing of St Kilda last week.

Chris Fagan’s Lions have now won nine on the trot and are perfectly placed in second spot.

Their scoring power and ball movement was on show for all to see when they piled on 19.10.(124) from 55 inside 50 entries against the Saints.

The Giants, who sit fourth, have won five in a row of their own, but have been lucky to get out of jail over the last two weeks.

Adam Kingsley’s side beat Hawthorn by two points, producing the best fourth-quarter comeback (28 points) in club history.

The Giants enjoyed a massive 54-point triumph over the Lions at Manuka Oval when the two clubs last met back in Round 7. Tom Green racked up 37 touches and Finn Callaghan also starred with 32 of his own in a dominant display from the men in orange.

Prior to that defeat, the Lions had won five on the trot over the Giants with an average winning margin of 31.8 points.

The Lions currently own the third best attack and second best defence in the competition.

But that backline could be tested if Jesse Hogan continues his recent form.

Hogan booted five goals in the win over the Hawks making him the first player since Tom Hawkins in 2019 to kick four or more goals in five straight games.

The Giants have not beaten the Lions at the Gabba since their semi-final victory in 2019 and that should extend here, although it won’t be easy.

Expecting Brisbane to get the job done but the best of GWS is still quite impressive and they will surely make a nuisance of themselves as the Lions chase 10 wins in a row.

Tip: Brisbane by 8 points.

Andrew Slevison

North Melbourne v West Coast

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Blundstone Arena

North Melbourne and West Coast both enter this game off wins, meaning somebody is going to leave Tassie on a two-game winning streak!

Who will it be? Well, North Melbourne has won four of their last five against West Coast, including earlier in the season at Optus Stadium.

North may have negative win-loss records against every other team in the competition across their last five meetings, but they do have the wood over the Eagles.

Nick Larkey booted five goals, while Harry Sheezel and Jy Simpkin dominated through the middle.

Jake Waterman did kick 3.2 for the Eagles though and he gets a Roos backline that will miss Griffin Logue for the rest of the season.

Both teams impressed last weekend and while West Coast has the advantage in terms of the output they are getting from their more experienced players, North Melbourne has greater depth of talent across their 22.

Tristan Xerri should dominate in the ruck and give his side first use. When the Roos get on top in the midfield, they’ve proven they can score quickly.

This feels like a bigger game for North than the Eagles and a test of how far they have come in 18 months. They need to win this game, jump West Coast on the ladder and build momentum heading into 2025.

Tip: North Melbourne by 25 points

Nic Negrepontis

Fremantle v Geelong         

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – Optus Stadium

A potential finals preview between two squads with top four hopes on the line, this Saturday afternoon affair has it all.

The Dockers will be in search of redemption after a fourth quarter collapse saw them fall short to Essendon by a single point last week, just their second loss since Round 14.

Meanwhile the Cats found themselves on the other side of a close finish, dispatching a plucky Crows outfit by five points to continue their late-season resurgence.

It’s a classic matchup between contrasting styles and counters, with the defensive juggernaut that is Fremantle sure to give Geelong’s focus on penetrating kicks trouble, while the Cats’ relentless tackling pressure could make things tough for the handball-happy Dockers.

Fremantle has seemingly had Geelong’s number in recent years, claiming victory in their last three meetings.

Add to that their dominance at Optus this season, having lost just twice on their home turf in 2024, and it seems to be a clash that favours those donning the purple.

Yet it certainly isn’t enough to count out the Cats, with their impressive clearance game matching up perfectly against a Dockers outfit that leaks plenty of scores after conceding a clearance.

With stars all around the ground and finals permutations galore, this is a blockbuster you won’t want to miss.

Tip: Fremantle by 11 points.

Jack Makeham

Essendon v Gold Coast

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Essendon came from the clouds to beat Fremantle by one point last weekend, kicking five goals in the final term to get up in a thriller.

Brad Scott’s Bombers remain outside the eight and must win on Saturday night to keep their finals hopes alive.

Gold Coast, now sitting 13th, lost to West Coast by 10 points in Perth.

The Suns, in Damien Hardwick’s first season at the club, now find themselves three games out of the eight.

They have lost all 10 games on the road in 2024 with one off those being at Marvel Stadium against Carlton. The average losing margin away from home is 26.8 points under Hardwick.

The Suns defeated the Dons by 11 points on the Gold Coast in Round 12. Noah Anderson (33 disposals), Matt Rowell (26) and Ben King (four goals) were among the best for the winning team, but it feels like this one is better set up for the Bombers this time around.

Prior to that, Essendon had not been beaten by Gold Coast in eight meetings (seven wins, one draw) which dated back to 2016.

Scott’s outfit was brave in pulling off that win over Freo and take into this contest some renewed confidence after three straight losses.

With much more on the line for the ninth-placed Bombers, we expect they’ll get the job done to keep their September aspirations a possibility.

Tip: Essendon by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison

Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – MCG

Port Adelaide are now one of the most in-form teams in the competition after enjoying an unbelievable 112-point win over the ladder-leading Swans.

Port Adelaide have now won three in a row and currently sit third on the ladder.

Melbourne, on the other hand, were smashed by the Bulldogs by 51 points in a loss that has most likely ended their season (although there remains some hope).

The Demons have lost their last three and currently sit 12th on the ladder.

The two sides met earlier this season in Round 3, where the Dees won on the road by 7 points at the Adelaide Oval.

Max Gawn was a monster in the ruck and was judged best on ground as he recorded 20 disposals, 50 hitouts and a goal.

Willem Drew fought hard for the Power that night, having 11 tackles and 25 disposals.

Melbourne have beaten Port Adelaide in four of their last five encounters and will hope to stop the Power’s impressive run of form.

The Demons are an impressive 8-4 when playing at the MCG this season, whereas Ken Hinkley's Power are 1-1 at the MCG this season, but they have won three of their last four at the iconic venue.

Jack Viney had 13 disposals last weekend in their loss to the Bulldogs, which was his lowest numbers recorded since Round 1, 2021. The Dees will need him firing this weekend to compete with Port’s in-form midfield.

Port Adelaide must win in order to lock up a top four spot with only two more games left to play after this round.

From a Melbourne perspective, they still have a small chance of making finals; another loss would only mathematically confirm the ending of their season.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points.

Noah Desta

Carlton v Hawthorn        

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – MCG

Is this the game of the round?

You never would have picked it at the start of the season, but this might be a mini-Elimination Final with just two games to go.

Heading into their bye, the Blues were outright second on the ladder. At the same time, the Hawks were 12th.

Skipping ahead to now, the sides are separated by just one win with the Blues losing four of their last five to cling onto their spot in the eight. Meanwhile the Hawks have won 10 of their last 13 and really should have beaten GWS last week before going down by two points.

On form, Hawthorn deserve to be favourites, but on paper, the Blues still have more stars than their opposition and they’ve also won their last three against the brown and gold.

The Blues will hope to expose Hawthorn’s defence in the air. Last week Jesse Hogan played a match winning hand against the Hawks with five majors. If Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay can do the same, that will lead to victory.

For Hawthorn, they’ll hope their ball movement, small forwards and pressure can overwhelm the Blues. They love playing at the MCG as well with victories by at least four goals in each of their last three games at the venue against Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood.

It’s a coin-flip game, but unless momentum switches, the Hawks might just be too strong for a Blues side that is looking a little bereft for answers.

Tip: Hawthorn by 8 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Richmond v St Kilda    

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Although St Kilda is coming off a heavy 85-point loss to Brisbane last week, the recent form of the Saints has been pleasing having won three of their last five matches.

With impressive wins over Sydney, West Coast and Essendon all coming in July, it seems easier to trust the Saints than it is to trust Richmond this week. That is despite a couple of horror losses when scoring just 39 against both the Crows and the Lions.

The Tigers seem to struggle at Marvel Stadium with their last victory under the roof coming under Damien Hardwick in Round 9, 2021.

Adem Yze’s men have not been on the winners’ list since their clash with Adelaide in early July and currently sit on the bottom of the ladder with just two wins for the season.

After a big week at Punt Road on the back of Richmond great Dustin Martin’s retirement, we may see the Tigers come out firing... or could it have drained the playing group emotionally.

Regardless of which way it goes, the Saints should be able to come away with the four points.

Tip: St Kilda by 19 points.

Tom Williams

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Sunday - 4:10pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The Western Bulldogs are on fire after winning six of their last seven matches with Luke Beveridge's side peaking at the right time.

The Bulldogs will be eager to bounce back from their last appearance at Adelaide Oval which resulted in a 48-point loss to Port Adelaide in Round 17.

The midfield trio of Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore should be able to have their way with the Adelaide midfield group and provide their forwards with a plethora of opportunities to hit the scoreboard.

The Crows have lost four of their last five matches against the Bulldogs making it hard to expect an upset come Sunday, especially with finals football out of reach this season.

Matthew Nicks' side has been ok in recent weeks, beating St Kilda (32 points) and Essendon (2 points), however, they were smashed by Hawthorn (66 points) before going down narrowly to Geelong by five points last weekend.

While the Crows should give a decent account of themselves in their last proper home game for the season, it is difficult to tip against the Dogs given what they have produced in recent weeks.

Tip: Bulldogs by 29 points.

Tom Williams