Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 23

Round 23 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some fascinating games ahead this weekend.

With just one game remaining after this round, there are plenty of mini-elimination finals set for those teams looking to secure September action.

Proceedings open on Friday night where Sydney can finish Essendon’s season at Marvel Stadium before Saturday sees GWS host Fremantle, Collingwood meet Brisbane in a Grand Final rematch and a Showdown in Adelaide.

Sunday's action sees finals hopefuls Western Bulldogs (7th), Hawthorn (8th) and Carlton (9th) face North Melbourne (17th), Richmond (18th) and West Coast (16th) respectively in banana peel games.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Essendon v Sydney                 

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Essendon fell to Gold Coast in heartbreaking fashion last weekend.

The Bombers kicked 1.9 in the final term before Mac Andrew converted after the siren to go down by a solitary point, dampening their finals hopes.

Sydney did the opposite by overcoming Collingwood with a late burst.

The Swans kicked the last five goals of the game to win by three points, maintaining their spot on top of the ladder after three straight losses.

These two sides last met at the SCG in Round 2 with the Swans saluting by 30 points in a high-scoring affair which finished 131-101.

Sydney has won five of its last six outings against Essendon including a two-point victory here at Marvel Stadium in Round 20, 2023.

John Longmire’s side managed to arrest a three-game losing streak courtesy of that dramatic three-point win over the Magpies, which could just be the circuit-breaker they require to get their game up and going again.

Brad Scott’s Bombers, who currently sit 10th, still see finals on the horizon but they MUST win this to remain in the hunt before they travel to the Gabba to face the Lions.

While this is crucial for the Dons, it is just as vital for the Swans who will want to secure the four points in order to lock top spot away.

They again tasted the joy of victory last week and that might snap them into action for a strong finish to the home and away campaign.

Tip: Sydney by 17 points.

Andrew Slevison

Gold Coast v Melbourne                

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – People First Stadium

An incredibly even battle on paper, both Gold Coast and Melbourne hold 10-11 win-loss records in 2024 with the Suns 12th and Demons 13th after Round 22.

On the back of their first away win of the season, the Suns will return to People First Stadium pretty confident having won seven of their eight true home games this year.

With both teams effectively out of the finals race, surely Gold Coast’s home record holds them in good stead, particularly as the Demons will be without all of Christian Petracca, Steven May and Clayton Oliver for the trip.

Overall, the Dees have given up on the season, while the Suns are still fighting as proven by their one-point win after the siren against Essendon last week.

Expect the Suns to dominate on-ball with Melbourne’s star duo out of the side, while Ben King is also every chance to have a field day and push his case for All-Australian selection with May unavailable.

If the Dees truly have given up as we expect, then this one could get pretty ugly given their form at home and ability to put big scores on the board at People First Stadium.

Tip: Gold Coast by 29 points.

Lachlan Geleit

GWS Giants v Fremantle               

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – ENGIE Stadium 

A pre-September battle looms for these two finals fancies, with GWS looking to sure up a top-four spot as Fremantle strives to lock themselves into the eight.

For the Dockers, this clash could be huge in the scope of their season. If they go down, there’s every chance they’re out of the eight at the end of the round with a tough game against Port Adelaide to come.

While they’ll be up for it, it won’t come easily for Justin Longmuir’s side at ENGIE Stadium with the Giants picking up some great form on the eve of finals with six straight wins that have seen them rise further up the ladder.

The last time the teams met, it was the Giants who won at home by a 106-36 scoreline, in that clash Stephen Coniglio took the three Brownlow votes with a dominant midfield display and GWS could welcome him back along with ruckman Kieren Briggs after both missed last week.

For the Dockers, their key to victory is beating GWS on-ball and holding up defensively.

That’ll be easier said than done against a Giants side that possesses Coleman leader Jesse Hogan and has scored at least 80 in all of their last six games.

Given that this game is in Sydney, GWS are deserved favourites and look every chance to begin locking in a top-four spot with a victory.

Tip: GWS by 19 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Collingwood v Brisbane         

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – MCG

Collingwood and Brisbane will meet for the second time this year and both have it all to play for.

Last year’s Grand Finalists have had rocky seasons in different ways. Both started slowly, but the Lions have rebounded and look the team to beat.

However, their inaccuracy in front of goal cost them against GWS and now they’re going to have fight to get back into the top four and top two.

Collingwood meanwhile must win both games to make the eight and have any shot at defending their premiership. Their season will come to an end if they can’t beat Brisbane on Saturday afternoon.

It’s easy to forget that before last year’s Grand Final, the Lions had won five straight over the Pies and had the wood in the matchup.

Collingwood however took them down at the Gabba earlier in the season and will take the confidence of successive wins into this one.

Bobby Hill has starred, kicking seven across their last two meetings and the Pies will need him to star again given the forwards unavailable for them.

Both teams are in good form. Collingwood had Sydney on the ropes last week before their late capitulation. This genuinely feels like a flip of the coin, and Brisbane’s premiership hopes could hinge on it.

Tip: Brisbane by 9 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Port Adelaide v Adelaide

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide enters the 56th edition of the Showdown on the back of a hard-fought two-point win over Melbourne, which was their fourth victory on the trot.

The Power sit second on the ladder pre-round but meet an Adelaide side fresh off a dominant 39-point triumph over a previously in-form Western Bulldogs.

Matthew Nicks’ Crows, who sit 15th, will no doubt be out to wreck the top four hopes of their arch rivals.

They’ve won the last three Showdowns by an average of 36 points and narrowly lead the all-time ledger 28-27.

It just feels that without any major goal on the agenda that the Crows are playing with a freedom not seen earlier in the campaign.

The Power are in winning form having saluted four weeks on the trot and in six of their last seven. There’s plenty to play for given a spot in the four is up for grabs, but you can’t trust much this season and it feels like an upset could be on the cards.

Round 20 loss to Hawthorn aside, the Crows have been playing some quality footy and if they produce what they did against the Dogs last week then they might just land another Showdown.

Tip: Adelaide by 13 points.

Andrew Slevison

St Kilda v Geelong

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Geelong fought hard to beat Fremantle last weekend at Optus Stadium, recording an 11-point win that secured their spot in the finals.

St Kilda continued their late-season form, beating the bottom-of-the-ladder Tigers by 48 points at Marvel Stadium.

The Saints currently sit 14th on the ladder, and Geelong are fourth with two games to go in the home and away season.

The two sides last met in Round 1 this season, where the Cats won a thriller by eight points at GMHBA Stadium. 

Jeremy Cameron didn’t need any time to get his season rolling, as he recorded 21 disposals and two goals in their opening-round encounter. 

Jack Steele also fought hard for his side on the night, collecting 25 disposals and six tackles.

St Kilda have won four of their last five games at Marvel Stadium, including an impressive two-point win against the ladder-leading Swans.

Geelong, on the other hand, are yet to play at Marvel this season, which could bring some uncertainty into the matchup. Whereas, St Kilda have played at Marvel 11 times this season, including their last four games.

The Cats have won three of their last five games against St Kilda, however, the Saints have won the last two encounters at Marvel Stadium.

Geelong will look to lock up their top-four aspirations with a win against the Saints this weekend. A win would likely see Geelong again feature in the top four, where they have been for four of their last five seasons.

The Cats have a bit more on the line this weekend with the Saints simply playing for pride, and they should be able to secure the win and a top-four spot in the process.

Tip Geelong by 17 points.

Noah Desta

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne        

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Western Bulldogs completely capitulated against Adelaide last weekend as they lost by 39 points.

The Dogs were one of the most in-form teams, and they soared into the top eight, winning four in a row against some impressive opponents.

The unexpected loss to the Crows may serve as a reality check for the Bulldogs, who need to refocus on making the finals first before dreaming any further.

North Melbourne, on the other hand, had a heartbreaking loss against the West Coast Eagles in Hobart.

The Eagles kicked four straight goals, including a last-minute Oscar Allen game-winner, which left the Roos stunned.

The two sides met earlier this season in Round 16, where the Dogs won by 17 points at Marvel Stadium. 

Dogs captain Marcus Bontempelli was his usual self that afternoon, collecting 35 disposals, 6 marks, and 11 clearances. Harry Sheezel battled hard for his Roos that day, recording 27 disposals and a goal at 82 per cent efficiency. He is out of this game with an ankle injury.

The Bulldogs have beaten the Roos in their last six encounters and will hope to continue this very successful trend in order to make the finals. 

The Roos have lost eight of their last 10 matches at Marvel Stadium, whereas the Dogs have won four of their last five games under the roof.

A win could be massive for the Dogs as they can climb to as high as sixth on the ladder, whereas a loss could end up costing them their season as they can fall to as low as 10th.

North currently sits 17th on the ladder, and a win would help boost the morale of the club, especially after their dramatic loss to the Eagles.

But there’s too much on the line for the Bulldogs to let another game slip; they should win comfortably here.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 35 points.

Noah Desta

Hawthorn v Richmond

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG

Sam Mitchell has described this clash as a final… if that’s the case, then it might be one of the most one-sided finals we’ve ever seen.

The Hawks enter the clash as arguably the hottest team in footy, coming off an emphatic 74-point victory over the Blues and having won eight of their last 10.

On the other end of the spectrum, we find a Richmond side in the thick of an eight-game slide, having all but secured 2024’s wooden spoon.

We saw these two clubs face off just two months ago back in Dusty’s 300th, and it wasn’t much of a contest then.

With Richmond having significantly less to play for this time around, and the Hawks needing a win to strengthen their grip on a top eight spot, this has all the makings of an absolute thumping.

The Tigers could put up a fight in the early stages, but it won’t be long before they’re overwhelmed by this electric Hawthorn outfit.

Tip: Hawthorn by 54 points.

Jack Makeham

West Coast v Carlton

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Optus Stadium

It’s do-or-die time for Carlton as this week’s clash with West Coast looms as a must-win if Michael Voss’ Blues are to feature in September.

After a horrid 74-point loss to Hawthorn last Sunday, the wounded Blues will need to be at their best if they are to beat the Eagles at Optus Stadium this week.

Last week’s match turned into a bloodbath for the Blues with injuries to Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad), Lachie Fogarty (collarbone), Adam Saad (hamstring), Jack Martin (hamstring) and Jordan Boyd (adductor) all occurring during the game.

Fogarty and Boyd have already been written off for the remainder of the home and away season with Curnow, Saad and Martin also to miss this week.

Just when Blues fans thought it couldn’t get much worse, key forward McKay also suffered a quad injury in the final stages of the game last week which has made him unavailable for this week’s clash also.

West Coast have started to hit some winning form after back-to-back triumphs against Gold Coast and North Melbourne, which could give them the nod at home under interim coach Jarrad Schofield.

With the likelihood of many inexperienced Blues making the trip to Perth as injuries to key players keep piling up, it feels like the Eagles are capable of causing an upset which could possibly end the Blues’ season.

It’s a flip of a coin, however, Carlton’s injuries seem too serious to pull off a courageous win on the road.

Tip: West Coast by 8 points.

Tom Williams