AFL
4 months ago
We asked 2000 AFL fans to predict the final top 8 a month ago and literally nobody predicted Carlton's fall
By Nic Negrepontis
Following Round 18 of the AFL season, we asked you to predict how the top eight would end up.
At that stage, Sydney was three games clear first, Carlton sat second (but had lost two in a row), Geelong third and Brisbane rounded out the top four.
Fremantle, Essendon, GWS, Melbourne and Port Adelaide sat between fifth and ninth, separated by just two points.
The Bulldogs sat 10th, Gold Coast 11th, Collingwood 12th and Hawthorn were 13th with a percentage of 95.4 – but had won four of their last five.
We asked the fans to tell us who would finish in each of the positions inside the top eight at this moment in time, with some fascinating results from the roughly 2000 respondents:
1st place
97.6 per cent responses had Sydney maintaining their grip on top of the ladder, which looks certain to salute now.
The remaining two per cent had Brisbane or Carlton finishing on top. More people had the Blues finishing on top of the ladder than finishing eighth just a month ago.
2nd place
Just over 66 per cent of responses were confident Carlton would maintain their position in second, with 26.1 per cent saying Brisbane.
Geelong at 3%, Sydney at 1.8% and Fremantle at 1.7% were the next most common answers.
GWS and Port Adelaide loom as the most likely teams to finish 2nd now, but they combined for less than 1% of the total vote.
3rd place
Exactly 50 per cent of voters had Brisbane finishing third. Carlton came in at 21.8 per cent, Geelong at 12.6 per cent and Fremantle at 11.9 per cent.
The Giants received 2.2 per cent of the vote, while Port Adelaide again received less than 1%.
Assuming the Cats thump West Coast and GWS loses to the Bulldogs, Geelong is more likely than not to end up third.
4th place
Fremantle was the clear frontrunner for fourth at 43.7% of the vote, followed by Geelong at 22.6%.
Brisbane received 14.6 per cent of the vote, Carlton at 6.7 per cent, GWS at 6.6 per cent and the Bulldogs at 3.2 per cent. Again, no love for the Power at just 0.4 per cent.
It looks like the Giants or Cats are most likely to land here given Port Adelaide’s percentage advantage.
5th place
Geelong leads the way with 34.2 per cent, Fremantle at 27.9 per cent, GWS at 13.4 per cent, the Bulldogs at 11 per cent and Brisbane at 5.1 per cent. Still no faith in the Power from the people, remaining below 1 per cent.
The Lions seem a lock to finish fifth, assuming they beat Essendon in Round 24.
Speaking of the Dons, despite spending the whole season in the eight to this point, only three per cent of respondents had them finishing fifth and virtually nobody had them in the top four.
6th place
The Bulldogs led the way at 30.5 per cent, while the Giants received 22.5 per cent of the vote. Geelong 14.3 per cent, Essendon 10.9 per cent and Fremantle 9.1 per cent.
Hawthorn makes their first real appearance here, with 3.4 per cent of responses, just below Port Adelaide at 3.5 per cent.
This will likely be a battle between the Hawks and Bulldogs this weekend, with Hawthorn set to leapfrog the Dogs if they beat North Melbourne and the Bulldogs lose.
7th place
GWS received the most responses at 30.8 per cent, the Bulldogs at 22 per cent, Essendon at 11.8 per cent, Port Adelaide at 9.3 per cent, Hawthorn at 8.5 per cent and Geelong at 7.4 per cent.
Only 0.4 per cent of votes had Carlton finishing seventh and flat zero had them finishing eighth, highlighting their incredible nosedive.
The Blues could end up here if they beat the Saints and one of the Hawks or Dogs lose.
8th place
Fans certainly deserve credit for picking Hawthorn’s rise would continue all the way into the top eight, with the Hawks the most common response for 8th at 22.5 per cent.
Port Adelaide next at 15.6 per cent, meaning fans expected the Power to squeak into finals, not host a Qualifying Final. How things can change.
GWS at 12.9 per cent are in a similar boat, while 12.2 per cent had the Bulldogs here.
14.6 per cent remained confident Essendon would hold onto their spot in the eight. Obviously, they have already been eliminated.
10.1 per cent thought Gold Coast could make it in, 4.5 per cent thought Melbourne could do it and Collingwood had 2.4 per cent of the vote. If the Pies had held on against Sydney, they would have potentially proven many people wrong.
Only 1.3 per cent of responses thought Fremantle would fall this far and, as mentioned, nobody thought Carlton would end up here. They are the most likely teams to finish eighth now.
Listen to Gerard Whateley’s editorial on the results below
