Champion Data reveals the AFL’s best and worst shot for goal in 2024

Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne has revealed the best and worst shots for goal in the AFL.

Instead of looking at pure accuracy in terms of goals, behinds and misses, Champion Data accounts for each shot’s degree of difficulty to give a measure of what analyst Hoyne describes as ‘pure goalkicking’.

Looking at the top of the goalkicking list, Coleman Medal leader Jesse Hogan has kicked an impressive 67.23 in 2024, but Champion Data rates him slightly outside of the top 10 in their measurements given that most of his attempts have come from gettable positions.

Instead, the best shot for goal according to Champion Data is Sydney’s Will Hayward, who has kicked 38.13 this season.

“This takes into account the degree of difficulty of the shot, not just pure accuracy,” Hoyne explained on SEN’s Sportsday.

“If your degree of difficulty is 30 per cent and you're going at 50 per cent, you're kicking 20 per cent above expectations. So, it's measuring pure goalkicking.

“Josh Treacy is number three, Tyson Stengle is actually top 10 as well, Jesse Hogan is slightly outside the top 10 purely because he's having such easy shots for goal - he's actually kicking as he should with those easy shots.

“But the number one player for shot at goal accuracy this year is Will Hayward, he’s 15 per cent above where he should be this year. His teammate Chad Warner is second and Josh Treacy is third.

“Of the top 12 for (shot at goal) accuracy, only four are potential finalists,

“That's Hayward, Warner, Treacy and Stengle.”

On the flip side, Hoyne revealed that Hawthorn’s Jack Ginnivan is rated the worst shot at goal despite the Hawk kicking a slightly below-average 23.25 this campaign.

“Now we go to the flip side, this is the interesting part of the conversation,” Hoyne said.

“The worst kick for goal this year based on our rating system is a Hawthorn player, it’s Jack Ginnivan.

“His accuracy is 13 per cent below where it should be based on the shots at goal that he is taking this year.

“Of the 11 worst kicks for goal this year, eight of them are going to feature in September.

“That’s Ginnivan, Jeremy Cameron, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Jye Amiss, Sam Darcy – who fought back on the weekend, while Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Kai Lohmann are hit and miss.

“Unfortunately for Brisbane, there's four of the 11 that belong to the one club.”

Watch Hoyne’s full segment with Kane Cornes on the SEN YouTube channel below.