Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 24

Round 24 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some HUGE games set for the weekend.

The home and away season’s final round begins with Collingwood and Melbourne facing off in a dead rubber – no one would have expected that to be the case at the start of the campaign.

Saturday sees Richmond face Gold Coast at the MCG, before Geelong locks to secure top four against West Coast at GMHBA Stadium, and Hawthorn hopes to lock in finals against North in Tassie.

Brisbane then hosts Essendon at the Gabba where they’ll look to win to lock in a likely fifth-spot finish before Sydney crowns their minor premiership season against the Crows at the SCG.

Sunday is where the action is, with the Bulldogs (6th) meeting the Giants (3rd) in Ballarat, before the Blues (8th) play the Saints (13th) at Marvel. Finally, the season concludes in Perth with Freo (9th) hosting the Power (2nd) … each game has massive finals ramifications with teams from sixth to ninth no certainty to play in September.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Melbourne v Collingwood      

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – MCG

Apart from COVID-affected seasons, this is the first time the Pies and Dees have played in dead rubbers since 2017 and 2019 respectively.

While the teams don’t have anything to play for, the Dees showed that they’re still up for the fight beating Gold Coast last week by 54 points at People First Stadium – despite losing four games in the lead-in to that clash.

Similarly, the Magpies also claimed victory in Round 23, beating Brisbane by one point, but at that stage, Collingwood’s season was still alive.

Looking at recent head-to-head battles between the sides, Collingwood has won nine of the past 11 meetings – a truly bizarre stat given the Demons have been strong over the last seven years.

The Dees will also be without Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Steven May among other key names in this game, while the Pies have injuries too, they clearly hold the advantage in terms of names out of the side.

Perhaps the biggest storyline in this one is Nick Daicos and his Brownlow hopes. If Alex Neal-Bullen goes his way like he did on King’s Birthday, he’s going to struggle to impact. If he’s allowed to run free, another three votes could be within reach.

Overall, Collingwood’s form over the last month is far better than Melbourne’s and given the Demons’ outs, the Pies should be too strong here.

We just might not see either team put everything into it given that they’re both out of the finals race.

Tip: Collingwood by 17 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Geelong v West Coast   

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium

The equation is simple for Geelong in this game, win and a top-four finish is assured.

Thankfully for the Cats, it doesn’t get much easier for them up against a West Coast team that will finish 16th in 2024, and the Eagles haven’t gotten within 39 points of the Cats at GMHBA Stadium in the last two decades.

Their performance last week won’t give them much hope either after they went down 34-99 to an injury-depleted Carlton side at home.

After losing the likes of Jeremy McGovern after that game as well, surely Jeremy Cameron is licking his lips with Tom Barrass also out injured.

The Cats should get the job done, and comfortably. In West Coast’s last two trips to GMHBA Stadium, they’ve lost by a combined 182 points.

No one would be shocked if a similar thrashing occurred in this game.

The only thing saving them could be the Cats putting players on ice if they get out to a big lead early.

Expect this one to be pretty uncompetitive.

Tip: Geelong by 55 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Richmond v Gold Coast               

Saturday - 2:10pm AEST – MCG 

Richmond will farewell Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, Marlion Pickett and Sam Naismith on Saturday on the MCG as premiership coach Damien Hardwick and the Suns come to town.

It will be a fitting tribute to three premiership heroes, even if the game is a total dead rubber.

Gold Coast was lifeless last weekend against Melbourne, barely giving a yelp as their season flounders for a 13th straight year.

Richmond meanwhile has barely offered much of a fight across the last few months, capping a tough debut coaching season for Adem Yze.

But if there’s one game they can lift for, surely it’s this one. Seeing off greats of the club while also maybe working off a bit of steam towards Hardwick, who jettisoned halfway through 2023.

No one will be talking about this one in the annals of history – unless it costs Richmond pick one – but it should mean quite a bit to Richmond fans and their senior players.

Expect them to come out with some energy, even if the Suns’ talent is too much to overcome.

Tip: Gold Coast by 18 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Hawthorn v North Melbourne         

Saturday - 4:40pm AEST – UTAS Stadium

Hawthorn enters the last home and away round on the back of yet another percentage-boosting performance in beating Richmond by 63 points.

To secure a finals spot, Sam Mitchell’s seventh-placed Hawks just need to see off Alastair Clarkson’s Kangaroos who are coming off a 96-point loss to the Western Bulldogs – their heaviest defeat of 2024.

The Hawks have won five in a row over the Roos by an average margin of 35 points. Mitchell is 2-0 head to head against his premiership coach Clarkson.

Even more impressive is the Hawks’ last four wins have come by 60 or more points. Only five teams have achieved that in the last 16 years, with all five playing in that season’s preliminary final.

The Roos have won just one of their last six - which was over Richmond in Round 21 - and have been ok in that time, losing to West Coast in dramatic fashion by five points while pushing Carlton all the way back in Round 19.

In terms of the season overall, they have little to play for given they sit 17th on three wins, but there is one individual to celebrate. Three-time Hawks premiership player Liam Shiels will play his 288th and final AFL game for the Roos against his former club.

But there is plenty to play for with a finals berth to be secured, the in-form Hawks should be able to get this done without too much consequence.

Even without Will Day (collarbone), the Hawks should be too strong in the midfield and will likely have the Roos covered both in attack and defence.

The Hawks have put better teams to the sword in recent weeks and should come away with another comfortable victory.

Tip: Hawthorn by 45 points.

Andrew Slevison

Brisbane v Essendon

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Gabba

The equation for Brisbane is simple – win and you will secure fifth place on the ladder in all likelihood.

Lose and you could be on the plane in the first week of finals or potentially miss out altogether if things go drastically wrong.

The Lions go in heavy favourites against an Essendon side that has, once again, seen their season fizzle out towards the end.

The Dons however will be hoping to go out with a little more pride than 12 months ago, when they finished the season with successive poundings.

Flying up to Queensland to face a Brisbane side playing for their season however doesn’t fill you with confidence.

The Lions have cost themselves dearly in the last fortnight with their inaccuracy in front of goal and their general inefficiencies in their forward half.

If things click this week, they could put up a big score on an Essendon side that has been struggling defensively in the last few months.

Essendon will farewell club great Dyson Heppell at the Gabba – can that motivate them to send him off in style? Their best footy is good enough, but half the battle is mental, and they don’t have a heap else to play for.

Expect the Lions to qualify for finals in emphatic fashion.

Tip: Brisbane by 45 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Sydney v Adelaide

Saturday - 7:40pm AEST – SCG

Sydney hosts Adelaide on Saturday night in what is essentially a dead rubber.

Basically, the Swans cannot lose top spot unless they are annihilated by Adelaide and Port Adelaide demolish Fremantle. They would have to be significant results for the Swans to drop to second.

Those two scenarios are highly unlikely, and the Swans need to tune their game for a finals campaign after playing patchy footy of late.

John Longmire’s side eventually kicked into gear against Essendon last weekend to come away with a 39-point win thanks to a 12-goal-to-four second half.

The Crows were competitive in the Showdown but fell to the Power by 22 points, conceding five goals in the final term.

Matthew Nicks’ outfit will lose their most explosive player in Izak Rankine to concussion which denies them power out of stoppage and cleverness around goal - two assets they’d need if they are to cause an upset.

The Swans will be buoyed by last week’s performance of captain Callum Mills who look assured off half-back, while there is a chance that Chad Warner returns to the midfield after his calf injury.

They’ve won their last five against the Crows, including a 42-point result in Adelaide in Round 14 when Joel Amartey helped himself to nine goals. He’s returned just 6.10 in eight games since so the Swans would love him to find some scoring form.

Sydney will be keen to play some top quality footy as a dress rehearsal for the finals and they do possess the quality of player to see this one off, secure top position and win their first minor premiership since 2016.

Tip: Sydney by 23 points.

Andrew Slevison

Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants        

Sunday - 12:30pm AEST – Mars Stadium

The Western Bulldogs are coming off a dominant 96-point victory against the 17th-placed Kangaroos that has launched them up to sixth on the ladder. 

GWS also had an impressive victory against Fremantle and have risen all the way up to third on the ladder. 

The Bulldogs are enjoying a strong patch of form and have won five of their last six games.

The Giants, on the other hand, are unstoppable at the moment and have won seven in a row. 

The two sides last met in Round 10 this year, where the Bulldogs won by 27 points on the road.

Adam Treloar impressed in their earlier encounter in Sydney, collecting 35 disposals, while Harry Himmelberg battled hard for the Giants, recording 30 disposals and 12 marks.

This game is absolutely vital for both sides, as a win could see GWS lock in a home qualifying final. 

Whereas, a win for the Bulldogs could be the difference between making or missing the finals, depending on other games results.

Considering that the game is being played at Ballarat and the fact that a loss could be season-ending for the Bulldogs, they should be able to get over the line in a close encounter.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 15 points.

Noah Desta

Carlton v St Kilda

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Been here, done that, Blues fans. Win and you’re in, lose and hope the footy gods bless you elsewhere.

Carlton enters the game with 19 players on their injury list. Some will get up and play through duress to try and lift them into September, but this is certainly going to be a weakened line-up.

They dug deep and got the job done against West Coast, but St Kilda is a class above and might have more to play for than you think.

Paddy Dow, Liam Stocker… maybe a hint of Stephen Silvagni bad blood? Ross Lyon’s awkward play at the Carlton coaching job? There are storylines here and after putting a dent in Geelong’s top two hopes last week, they’ll be hoping to end Carlton’s campaign in Round 24.

The Saints have elite run and carry off half back with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair and score freely on transition – something that has burnt Carlton in their form slump.

They tagged Tom Stewart out of the contest last week, will Stocker go to Cripps this weekend?

For the Blues to win, they’re going to need midfield dominance. Patrick Cripps and George Hewett did just that against the Eagles, but must back it up again.

If they bring the same pressure and intensity they did against the Eagles – something that had been missing for a month – they should be able to cause the forward half turnovers they’ll need to put St Kilda under to quell their uncontested marking game.

Ultimately, this game means everything to Carlton and won’t affect St Kilda one way or the other. If the Blues can’t dig deep and get the job done here, then they probably don’t deserve to play finals anyway.

Tip: Carlton by 9 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Fremantle v Port Adelaide

Sunday - 6:10pm AEST – Optus Stadium

Port Adelaide are coming off a 22-point Showdown win that was full of drama and excitement. 

The Power now sit second on the ladder coming into the last round of the season. Fremantle, on the other hand, lost a very important game against GWS that has shook their season.

The Dockers now sit ninth and outside of the top eight for the first time since round 12. 

The two sides last met in Round 5 at the Adelaide Oval this year, where Port Adelaide won by three points due to a clutch game winner by Jason Horne-Francis.

Zak Butters was judged best on the ground in their earlier match this season, as he recorded 24 disposals, nine tackles, and a goal. 

Port Adelaide have beaten Fremantle in four of their last five encounters.

Butters was also easily best-on-ground last weekend as he collected a Showdown record of 42 disposals, earning himself the Showdown Medal - the Dockers will hope to nullify his influence.

Meanwhile, Andrew Brayshaw was dominant in their loss against GWS, collecting 41 disposals.

This game is expected to be very close and could change the trajectory of both teams' seasons. 

A win would lock in a home qualifying final at the Adelaide Oval for Port Adelaide, whereas a loss could see GWS take their spot, who are only 2.5 per cent behind them. 

A win for Fremantle could see them return to the final eight, whereas a loss would end their season and finals hopes.

Given the Dockers have more on the line, we're backing them to win at home.

Tip: Fremantle by 14 points.

Noah Desta