Why Dwayne Russell is ready to pick Week 1 finals boilover... but there’s one proviso

SEN host Dwayne Russell is tipping Carlton to upset Brisbane at the Gabba in a Week 1 finals boilover.

The Blues were the last team to qualify for the eight, with their September plans only locked in once Fremantle went down to Port Adelaide in the home and away season’s final game.

It allowed them to keep hold of eighth spot despite going down to St Kilda by two points in dramatic circumstances earlier on Sunday.

They next face fifth-placed Brisbane in an Elimination Finl at the Gabba on September 7 and many are picking the Lions given the Blues approach the finals series with six losses from their last eight games.

Although the Blues aren’t entering finals in great form, they could welcome back Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad) and even Tom De Koning (foot) for the big game and if that trio returns, Russell thinks they’ll get the job done in Brisbane.

“I'm tipping them to beat the Lions at the Gabba if they get the big three back,” Russell told SEN Afternoons.

“I know that there might be a few raised eyebrows at that, but the Lions have been a little unconvincing for mine.

“They still kick inaccurately. I think they're still vulnerable at home. So, I think Carlton win this Elimination Final.

“I know Carlton lost on the weekend, but they didn't lose anything because they would have finished eighth anyway.”

Russell believes that the Blues can get the job done on the road after they beat West Coast in Round 23 by 65 points despite taking an injury-depleted line-up to Perth.

But he did preface his prediction with one proviso - that Curnow, McKay and De Koning do actually play.

“I think this is a hit-and-run mission that Carlton can succeed with - the same way as they succeeded with the hit-and-run mission in Perth a week ago - if they get the big three back,” Russell said.

“There's something about Carlton as being the underdog right now, so my gut feeling is I’ll tip Carlton if selection goes their way.

“If it doesn’t then I certainly won't be tipping them.”

Carlton faced Brisbane at the Gabba in the 2023 finals series where they went down 79-63 in a Preliminary Final.

The winner of the Lions v Blues Elimination Final will play the loser of the Swans v Giants Qualifying Final in week two of the 2024 finals series.