AFL

3 months ago

What will be Carlton's appetite for risk heading into a do or die final?

By Gerard Whateley

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What’s your appetite for risk?

The eternal question for hedge fund investors and senior coaches heading into sudden death finals.

How much risk is Michael Voss prepared to accept in pursuit of victory at the Gabba?

Conventional wisdom dictates that four or five changes to a team is the threshold before too much change is too much risk, but this scenario is distinct.

Carlton has played its past two matches with a makeshift squad of reinforcements, understudies and seat fillers holding the fort for the front line to return.

The injury list at Carlton before Round 24 had 20 names on it for assessment.

They range from Adam Saad with a hamstring who played Round 24 through to Sam Docherty who hasn’t played since Opening Round with an ACL.

Voss suggested there were two categories – the short term injured and those who have endured interrupted seasons.

So, what’s your appetite for risk working through the list?

Adam Cerra has played only 12 games this season – three times interrupted by hamstrings.

Zac Williams missed four of the last six including Round 24 with hamstring tightness.

Harry McKay played only two of the last five games… a quad keeping him out of Rounds 23 and 24.

Mitch McGovern has had three separate interruptions in a 17-game season including Rounds 18, 19 and 24.

Tom De Koning last played in Round 20 when he required foot surgery and suffered a punctured lung.

Jack Martin has played only three games for the year most recently rounds 21 and 22.

Charlie Curnow missed the final two games with an ankle that isn’t sparking waves of optimism.

Jordan Boyd has battled an adductor strain that cost him a couple late in the piece with a timeline that looks impossible.

And the big stretch is Sam Docherty – the most loyal of servants who is presenting medically sound from a knee reconstruction in Opening Round.

You want McKay, Curnow, McGovern and De Koning as your structural players. You’d like Williams who was a spark. You couldn’t see Boyd and Cerra, and Docherty is a leap of faith.

It’s the line between don’t take injured players into finals and you’ve gotta play hurt.

The first is the most naïve statement in football… they all play injured at this time of year and it either works or it doesn’t.

What’s your appetite for risk heading to an elimination final at the Gabba?