Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL finals week one

September is upon us with week one of the 2024 AFL finals series set for the weekend.

The finals kick off in Adelaide, with the Power hosting the Cats on Thursday night in a Qualifying Final, while the MCG hosts the Dogs v Hawks Elimination Final on Friday night.

We have two games set for Saturday with the Swans and Giants meeting in a Qualifying Final at the SCG before the Lions host the Blues in a do-or-die Elimination Final at the Gabba.

With that in mind, see our tips for each game below.

Port Adelaide v Geelong    

Thursday - 7:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

We’ve got some pretty opposing styles to kick off this year’s finals series in Adelaide.

Port Adelaide will dominate if the game is clearance and contest-based, while Geelong will be hoping to get the ball to the outside to let their flankers at either end of the ground do some damage.

The last time these teams met the game played out in the Power’s favour, with the away team getting the job done in Geelong 95-101. In that game, Port Adelaide held sway at stoppage, winning the clearance count as all of Ollie Wines, Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis and Willem Drew had more footy than Geelong’s top ball-getter which was Cam Guthrie.

If that happens again. The Power get the job done. Especially at home.

Geelong’s hopes probably rest with the likes of Tyson Stengle, Ollie Henry, Brad Close, Shaun Mannagh, Grian Miers and Jeremy Cameron. If the ball comes into their forward line quickly and on the ground, all of those players can have a big say – while Henry and Cameron can also do it in the air.

Ultimately in a finals-style game, you’d expect that the game would fall back to a contest/stoppage encounter, which will suit Ken Hinkley’s side.

They probably just have a little bit too much midfield class … but as Kane Cornes says, there’s no doubt the Power would be nervous that the best coach in the league Chris Scott has had two weeks to prepare for this match.

If he can win the battle in the coaches’ box, his team is in with a real chance, but the tip is with the Power at home.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 9 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn    

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – MCG

Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs enter finals as the two in-form sides of the competition.

The Hawks have won their last five games by an average margin of 78.6 points, while the Dogs have what Champion Data have described as the best profile of the remaining teams.

They’ll meet on the MCG for just the second time since their 2016 Semi Final clash and the winner will feel they can go all the way.

Can Hawthorn’s undersized backline hold up against the Bulldogs’ trio of tall forwards? Tough weather conditions and finals-level pressure around the contest might help them.

The Bulldogs have a ton of finals experience and a midfield of veterans who have played on the biggest stage.

Hawthorn meanwhile will mostly enter Friday night without a whole heap of September experience.

Both can play at speed and score off transition, but you’d trust the Bulldogs’ back six a bit more to hold up if exposed.

This one could absolutely go either way and really comes down to whether the Hawks can handle the bright Friday night September lights.

With Will Day out, the Dogs’ midfield might be the separator between these sides.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points

Nic Negrepontis

Sydney v GWS    

Saturday - 3:20pm AEST – SCG 

An interesting but not uncommon September matchup awaits on Saturday as the Swans and Giants meet for the fourth time in finals.

While Sydney is the older brother in this rivalry, they’ve never beaten GWS in a final going down in 2016 (Qualifying Final), 2018 (Elimination Final) and 2021 (Elimination Final), with all of those coming in finals week one.

Although there’s recent finals history against them, Sydney has never been better placed to turn the tables on GWS after finishing minor premiers, one game clear and 19.9 per cent higher than second-placed Port Adelaide.

They’ve also won their last three against GWS, the most recent of those in Round 15 by 27 points. In those three matches, Errol Gulden has been awarded the Brett Kirk Medal for best afield, if he’s allowed to dictate terms again, the Swans will win.

GWS’ road to victory is through pressure, if they can bring the heat to the Swans and stop their kicking and handball chains through the middle of the ground, they’ll hope to give their forwards enough opportunities to score.

While there’s every chance this final is played in a tough, contested fashion, surely Sydney’s offense is strong enough to put up a winning score against this GWS side.

There’s always a lot of feeling in these clashes and there’s no doubt both teams will be leaving everything out on the middle of the SCG to secure a home Preliminary Final.

Tip: Sydney by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Brisbane v Carlton         

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Gabba

What a shemozzle of a season it has been for Carlton. From six points clear 2nd on the ladder to falling into eighth having lost four of their last five games and carrying an injury list of 20 players.

It seems as though they’ll be somewhere near full strength for this Elimination Final clash with Brisbane, but the question will be who they trust to bring back in and how they hold up under finals-like conditions.

The Lions finished the season losing two of their last three, costing themselves top four with horrific efficiency in front of goal.

Brisbane should win this final comfortably, but there’s absolutely a scenario where they waste their chances in front of goal and give Carlton the opening they will need.

The Lions have won five of their last six against the Blues, but were beaten by them in Opening Round at the Gabba.

Brisbane played a near-perfect opening quarter, kicking 7.2, before kicking 5.11 and allowing the Blues to overrun them in the second half. Carlton will be hoping for similar inaccuracy.

At the end of the day, Chris Fagan and the Lions cannot afford to lose this game and let another year slip by.

Expect them to come out firing and put a wounded Carlton side down early.

Tip: Brisbane by 24 points

Nic Negrepontis