How AFL trends led to insane Brownlow results and why Champion Data analyst can’t see it changing

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne wasn’t all that shocked by the shock vote-polling seen in Monday night’s Brownlow Medal count.

Carlton’s Patrick Cripps won the award with a mammoth 45 votes ahead of Collingwood’s Nick Daicos with 38. The previous single-season record for vote-getting was 36 set by Dustin Martin in 2017 and Ollie Wines in 2021.

While the numbers produced by Cripps and Daicos did slightly surprise Hoyne, he thinks it’s simply a by-product of how footy is being played in 2024 instead of a bias from umpires in voting purely for superstars.

“When I saw Patrick Cripps had 45 votes and Nick Daicos had 38, it took me a little bit by surprise … but the game has changed significantly over the last seven, eight or nine years,” Hoyne told SEN Sportsday.

“Teams only need or only have four to five superstars that are going to win you a Prelim or that are going to win you a Grand Final that you're setting the game up for.

“10, 15 or 20 years ago, there was more of an even spread of talent across the ground.

“I think we can all agree that the lack of depth across the competition is pretty noticeable at the moment.

“I remember 15 years ago going, ‘How is that guy not getting a game’, but you rarely see that now.”

Simply put, Hoyne thinks that coaches are setting their game plans up to help their superstars shine, with role players working to get the big guns into positions to produce game-breaking moments.

He thinks that prioritising superstar talent over an even-spread really began in 2016 with Geelong before it was crystalised by Richmond in 2017 who were famous for their role players that helped set up games for the likes of Dustin Martin.

“Go back to nine years ago and I reckon Geelong were starting it in a way when Dangerfield arrived,” Hoyne said.

“They got to a Prelim, and it was basically only off Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor and they got to a Prelim and almost to a Grand Final.

“Then the year after was really the pin-up and the most noticeable version of this with Richmond where it's Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt, then the glut of role players just doing their thing. But it was, ‘We’re setting the game up for you, Dusty’.

“Melbourne are setting the game up for Christian Petracca, Carlton are setting the game up for Cripps, the Dogs are setting the game up for Marcus Bontempelli.

“Sydney is setting the game up for five blokes, with Errol Gulden, Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney, Nick Blakey, Tom Papley and that's it.

“You're not really going to be looking at seeing an even distribution of votes anymore.”

With the trend showing no signs of slowing down, Hoyne can’t see vote-getting for superstars slowing down much as coaches like Craig McRae will continue setting up his side to allow Nick Daicos to succeed more than anyone else given his match-winning abilities.

“Michael Voss is sitting there going, ‘Well for us to win a game, we need Cripps to go bananas’, (McRae would be thinking), ‘We need Nick Daicos to go bananas’,” Hoyne explained.

“So, I'm not really surprised with what's happening. Maybe 45 is a fraction too much, but I don’t think moving forward we’re going to see a winner get under 30 votes for a very long time.”