Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for the 2024 AFL Grand Final

The 2024 AFL Grand Final is finally here!

The Sydney Swans take on the Brisbane Lions as the last two runners-up clash at the MCG on Saturday.

See the tips and predictions from the SEN.com.au digital team below:

The Swans have been the best team all year and should be good enough to see off the Lions.

After Brisbane’s remarkable prelim win over Geelong, the Lions were the tip but the loss of Oscar McInerney is significant.

‘The Big O’ torched Brodie Grundy in Round 19 (27 hit-outs, 22 touches, 9 clearances, 7 inside 50s to Grundy's 29 hit-outs, 13 touches and 6 clearances). He is also Brisbane's third most prolific clearance player so the Lions might miss that grunt around the ball that they’ll likely need to get the edge over the Swans.

Not the sole reason but enough to swing the tip in favour of Horse’s Swannies.

Tip: Sydney by 12 points
Norm Smith: Isaac Heeney (SYD)
First Goal: Chad Warner (SYD) or Cam Rayner (BRI)

Andrew Slevison

The best team of the 2024 season in Sydney faces off against the universal pre-season favourite in Brisbane. The two best teams on the biggest stage at a neutral venue – this is a footy lover’s dream.

The Swans have had the perfect path here. Finished clear on top of the ladder, had to fight from behind in a real test against GWS and then cruised through the Preliminary Final.

They’ll be without skipper Callum Mills, but they dominated the competition all season mostly without him. It’s hard to see it tangibly affecting their performance.

The bigger loss is Oscar McInerney at Brisbane, who was in great form and has a strong recent record against Brodie Grundy.

The pressure will be on Darcy Fort to match Grundy and if not, the Lions will need to pull the trigger and throw Joe Daniher in there.

Grand Finals are decided by elite talent stepping up when it matters most. Both teams boast elite midfield units and both have reliable defensive groups with elite rebound.

The difference could be the two forward lines. Brisbane has endless weapons who can swing games. In the Prelim it was Callum Ah Chee and Cam Rayner who kicked the big goals.

If Brandon Starcevich, the best lockdown small defender in the game, shuts down Tom Papley, can the Swans kick a winning score? They’ll probably need goals from Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney to do so.

And that’ll be the difference. The Lions will break even in the middle, Harris Andrews, Jack Payne, Ryan Lester and Starcevich will win their matchups down back and Brisbane’s match-winners will kick them a winning score.

Expect a tight Grand Final, particularly in the first half. Will the Swans have another poor first quarter? Predicting Brisbane to jump them early, the game to even up from there and then the Lions push away late as we see in many Grand Finals.

Tip: Brisbane by 37 points
Norm Smith: Hugh McCluggage (BRI)
First Goal: Will Hayward (SYD)

Nic Negrepontis

An incredibly even Grand Final matchup on paper, with both teams appearing to peak at just the right time.

With such an even on-field battle that appears hard to pick, Sydney staying home all September and playing just two games, compared to Brisbane playing in QLD, NSW and Victoria already across three weeks means that they’re deserved favourites.

Brisbane’s key to victory is probably getting the jump on a Sydney side that’s been slow starters.

But if the Swans can get in front of the Lions as both the Giants and Cats have done in the last fortnight, you can’t see them giving up a lead with how professional they’ve been in 2024.

Isaac Heeney also has everything going for him as a Norm Smith Medallist. If he even plays to 75 per cent of his capabilities, he’ll be in the running for best afield.

Tip: Sydney by 20 points
Norm Smith: Isaac Heeney (SYD)
First Goal: Joe Daniher (BRI)

Lachlan Geleit

The two best teams in the competition will meet in what is shaping up to be an epic finale to a terrific season.

The Swans have been the number one seed for the entire year with stars littered throughout their lineup and coaching group.

They're what you call a well-oiled machine and they've had the perfect tune-up in their first two finals.

They overcame a serious challenge from GWS in the first final to win - they then put their best four-quarter performance in a Preliminary Final against Port Adelaide.

They head to Saturday with absolutely no excuses.

As for the Lions, they're what you call a team full of momentum.

The never-say-die attitude in this team at the moment is infectious and that's a dangerous recipe when heading into a Grand Final.

You can tell the playing group is adopting the 'us against them' mentality in terms of the narrative around their coach Chris Fagan and their finals record.

They're peaking at the right time and something tells me the experience they got from last year's defeat will be priceless on the weekend.

The one area the Lions will be able to dominate the Swans is down back, with the likes of Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester, Jack Payne, Dayne Zorko and Darcy Wilmot all elite in what they do.

I'm expecting Andrews and Lester to take 15 marks between them and be a complete brick wall in dry conditions.

Tipping this to be an all-time final and for Fagan's Lions to get their redemption by 16 points.

Tip: Brisbane by 16 points
Norm Smith: Hugh McCluggage
First Goal: Joe Daniher

Hugh Fitzpatrick