The UPC Showdown Roughie Report: Top 3 picks for the Cox Plate

Racing at The Valley is the focus this weekend.

See below the Roughie Report thanks to The Leg Up and UPC Showdown.

And make sure you sign up for the UPC Showdown for your chance to win.

Cox Plate Top 3

Blake Johnston

VIA SISTINA (1st) – Outstanding first-up win on the back of a slow tempo and then had plenty against in her failure in the Makybe Diva Stakes, including the tempo of the race on a deteriorating heavy track. She hit back last time out when settling worse then midfield in the Turnbull before proving too strong late for the Caulfield Cup quinella in Duke De Sessa (4th) and Buckaroo (2nd). She maps to receive every chance form the low draw and looks the best of the Aussies.

KOVALICA (2nd) – He’s the best of the roughies. Not the best of luck in the Epsom at a key stage and then had the tempo of the race against in the Hill Stakes. He’s now third-up over 2000m and should be at his peak. He draws to get back but if he can find a trail into the race, he can be right in the finish.

PROGNOSIS (3rd) – He stretched Romantic Warrior (last year’s winner) two back and that speaks of his class. It was a huge effort considering he missed the start, made an early move to be covering extra ground, and then was still strong through the line. Forget last start at short odds when never in it. Needs to jump on terms but is the one to beat if he can.

Nick Lloyd

PROGNOSIS (1st) - I’m gambling that he can overcome a tardy getaway, which is likely to happen based on what we’ve seen in the past. The Japanese galloper is world-class, almost beating last year’s winner Romantic Warrior at Sha Tin earlier this year after blowing the start, taking odd early, eventually landing four wide and giving Romantic Warrior a tow into the race. He kicked back and almost beat him there, so he’s very talented. The strong speed should suit, he can blend in at the right time and be too good.

KOVALICA (2nd) - He’s been my man crush since his QLD Derby win 18 months ago, but he’s low-flying. He should have finished closer in the Epsom when chopped out a key stage. The form out of that race has been elite, with Ceolwulf subsequently winning the King Charles III Stakes, beating Pride Of Jenni. Up to 2040m is going to suit him, and I can see him hitting the line nicely to fill a hole.

EVAPORATE (3rd) - He was a surprise acceptor, but it suggests to me that he’s airborne! The Hayes-trained 3YO has raced Broadsiding twice and beaten him both times, while he’s unbeaten at The Valley. He can put himself on speed under Karis Teetan and be right in the finish.

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