The Melbourne Cup formula for 2024 based on the trends of the last 10 years

It can be daunting getting your head around the form for the Melbourne Cup.

There’s 24 horses to assess with contradictory form lines, differing weights, assorted barriers and all types of variables.

It presents as a nightmare for some.

So we’ve come up with a formula to help make it easier based on the results of the last 10 Melbourne Cups.

Dating back to 2014, we’ve assessed aspects such as saddle cloth numbers, barriers, weights, type of horse, price, if they’re bred in Australia/New Zealand or overseas, the success of their jockeys and more.

Points have been allocated to each runner relating to the amount of times that instance has occurred.

Barriers 17, 18, 19 & 21 have produced one winner each in the last decade so the horses drawn in that grouping have been awarded four points.

Geldings have won six of the last 10 Cups so all geldings have been allocated six points, horses have been awarded three and mares one (with Verry Elleegant being the only mare to win in the last decade).

The 23 saddle cloth has delivered two winners in the last 10 years which gives The Map two points.

Kerrin McEvoy and Mark Zahra have twice won since 2014, so their mounts - Absurde and Circle Of Fire - both got two points.

Starting prices of $8, $9 and $11 have combined for five of the last 10 wins, so the horses with those prices get five points. (But to avoid drifts or firms, we have grouped horses in sections to avoid them missing points they should get).

And so on and so forth.

Without further ado, see below what the formula spat out and hopefully it helps you pick your winner and put together some trifectas and first fours for the big race on Tuesday.

(This is an objective view based on the numbers and stats. A bit of fun and clearly not an exact science).

See the field below in order based on our flawed but fun points system.

Eq.1 - Land Legend (33)
Eq.1 - Okita Soushi (33)
Eq.3 - Just Fine (31)
Eq.3 - Onesmoothoperator (31)
Eq.3 - Vauban (31)
6 - Interpretation (28)
7 - Absurde (27)
Eq.8 - Buckaroo (26)
Eq.8 - Fancy Man (26)
10 - Kovalica (25)
11 - Valiant King (24)
Eq.12 - Sea King (22)
Eq.12 - Athabascan (22)
Eq.12 - Mostly Cloudy (22)
Eq.12 - Circle Of Fire (22)
16 - Sharp ’N’ Smart (18)
Eq.17 - Knight's Choice (16)
Eq.17 - Saint George (16)
19 - Warp Speed (15)
20 - The Map (14)
Eq.21 - Zardozi (13)
Eq.21 - Manzoice (13)
Eq.24 - Positivity (12)
Eq.24 - Trust In You (12)

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