"It won't change teams' mentality": The fatal flaw in NRL's radical kick-off rule change

Reports from across the Tasman on Tuesday regarding a drastic rule change to NRL kick-offs for 2025 and beyond has sparked debate among the rugby league community.

In an effort to mitigate the impact of high-speed collision, the NRL will reportedly introduce a law to punish teams who kick the ball off past the opposition 20m line by awarding the recipients with a seven-tackle set.

A large part of the concussions suffered last season came in kick-off scenarios, most notably with Storm's Nelson Asofa-Solomona's hit on Rosters counterpart Lindsay Collins - an incident which cost the forward his place in both the NRL Grand Final and the Kiwis' Pacific Championship title defence.

But will the prospect of conceding an extra tackle be enough of a deterrent for teams to avoid going deep on a kick-off?

According to SENZ rugby league commentator Sam Hewat, it absolutely will not.

"I don't think it is," Hewat said on SENZ's Scotty & Izzy. " I think teams are just going to say 'screw this' and just take the seven tackles.

Hewat believes the risk of allowing an opposition side - particularly the elite teams in the competition - to capitalise further off the momentum of scoring a try is too great, making the sacrifice of defending one less tackle not worthwhile.

"Take Melbourne, for example," he explained.

"They go and score a try, you kick off short to them and give them the ball back. You're just going to see even more one-sided games, because a team that gets momentum, the other team is going to find it impossible unless they kick it long and concede the seven tackles.

"I think that's the way they'll go."

Veteran NRL commentator Andrew Voss agrees with Hewat's assessment.

"My first reaction is that it won't change teams' mentality," Voss explained on SEN.

"You'll still see teams go with a long kick-off and are prepared to concede a seven-tackle set because they want the opposition under pressure.

"They'll be returning the ball deep on their line and it could be when they are chasing points.

"I still think that teams will kick long more than they will short given field position, pressure, fatigue and trying to force an error.

"It's worth conceding an extra tackle."

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