The AFL is losing the war in Sydney’s west, and it’s going to take more than Opening Round to turn it around

Many years ago, when the Giants were formed, an affronted Roy Masters - legendary rugby league figure boldly predicted it would prove to be the AFL's Vietnam - the unwinnable war.

Now, Roy's had a healthy dislike of all things AFL for a long, long time, albeit combined I suspect with a grudging respect for the success of the game.

He accepted the move to Sydney by the Swans was part of an obvious expansion, as were the Storm into Melbourne … but the Giants were a totally different matter, and their move into the heart of rugby league's cradle was a step too far for Roy and the game's administration.

In fact, the Giants were the best thing that ever happened to rugby league because it stimulated action from their controlling body at headquarters who were, at that stage, a little bit lackadaisical. They are now flying as a code as a result of changes, with Penrith, the classic footy factory, right in the heart of where the Giants are supposed to be proliferating.

So now in 2024, 13 years after they first played in the senior AFL competition, it begs the question - Where too for the Giants? And what of the decision to establish an Orange Tsunami tsunami in Sydney's West that Andrew Demetriou said could take generations to deliver an outcome?

Last night I said the AFL needed to add a five-star general to the tower of power to bolster the resources at AFL house.

They currently have two-part timers and Trevor Nisbett and Geoff Walsh leading a hand, but part-timers are not what's required to solve the game's greatest problem - our expansion in Western Sydney, or perhaps better said the contraction of the game in the west, despite the establishment of the Giants.

When the Swans were established in 1982, it was essentially a money grab and a set-and-forget approach by the VFL.

The prevailing view was that as soon as they saw the game, ‘Those dumb Sydneysiders would jump on board’, how pathetically naive and arrogant it was at the time and insulting to one of the great codes of this country.

Yes, the Swans now are flying high. But the game itself in one of the country's biggest growth corridors is crashing with a similar set-and-forget approach to the expansion of the game attached to the Giants.

You have to ask the question, will we ever learn? It's a gross failing of the past and current commissions, and administrations for that matter, who fly into Sydney, see the full SCG and go home and seem satisfied with the health of the game north of the Murray … Will they ever get it?

This is in no way a criticism of the Giants who under Tony Shepherd, Dave Matthews and a number of unbelievably good coaches have run a magnificent football program and club.

In fact, I'm a rusted-on fan and admire the job they have done particularly now, that the attacking tsunami is back in vogue.

They've played finals seven out of the last nine seasons, including a Grand Final and a couple of near misses. It's an amazing record in particular when you compare it to the Suns.

But the reality is, that despite the record and the stars that play for the team, the crowd at the semi-final against the Swans at the SCG was sadly lacking orange representation, and it begged the question why.

The following week it was much better with 18,357 people attending - the 10th biggest attendance at Giants Stadium, but it should have been full.

Yes, it's unfair to hold them to an AFL standard, but it's also unfair to think it's going to magically double somehow using Andrew Demetriou's generational time frame as a crutch for a poor result.

But don't blame the club. They've lived up to their end of the bargain, better than anyone's expectation in my view, just compare them to the Suns.

But it's the mothership that has let them down badly. I argued years ago that they need to play a few games at the SCG for the fans from travelling teams from interstate who would find it much easier to attend, and the crowds would be far more significant, helping player retention.

Which player doesn't want to play in front of a big crowd? It's an argument that's gathered some momentum of late, but ultimately, it's a band-aid only, and may help the Giants marginally, but does nothing for the big picture – and that's the health of the game in the West.

It's a concept few in the game seem capable of comprehending, but the Giants are fine. It's the game that's failing at the grassroots level in the west of Sydney.

If you want proof, let's look at the Giants Academy.

It was established in 2011, 14 years ago. In that time, 56 players have graduated onto AFL lists. But the damning number of players recruited in that time from the west of Sydney is … three.

Kieran Briggs, a star of the game, James Peatling, and Nick Shipley from Campbelltown who played a few games before being delisted in 2021. That's three from 14 years.

It was a number, I've got to say that rocked my core belief that the Giants were a worthwhile investment.

Before they were formed, we had Lenny Hayes and the two McVeighs – Jarrad and Mark - originate from Sydney's west out at Penrith. Three bona fide champions 15 years ago, all of roughly the same era, but not much since, despite the millions of dollars spent on the Giants.

Given the growth of the game was the very reason for the Giants’ inception, you’d say that that's a very big fail, that requires serious action from the AFL immediately, or acceptance that perhaps it's in the too-hard basket … or maybe Canberra is a better option.

Perhaps it is the AFL's Vietnam as Roy predicted all those years ago.

To be fair, the AFL have recently committed 10 per cent of all revenue to development and have just announced a new head of AFL ACT/New South Wales, Andrew Varasdi – who will report to Rob Auld.

Now, Rob Auld is the head of AFL development, whose office is in the tower of power at Marvel Stadium.

It should be in Sydney right next to his new appointment because that's the critical element of the game's future.

It's reflective of the problem that the AFL has because this is a job for a five-star general, not a report to one of their executives.

What happens at the top is a reflection of what happens at the bottom, and in western Sydney, it appears there's not much happening at all.

Sydney's West is a major part of the future of the game itself, and special attention is absolutely necessary, for without it, our boast of a truly national game is a myth and the very reason for the existence of the Giants is under question.

We have a national comp indeed, but not a national game in Sydney's west.

Many don't even know it exists, as competitions shrink and combine to stay alive, with the demographic getting more and more difficult year after year.

Andrew Dillon's reign will have many challenges along the way upon which he'll be judged, and he knows better than most.

I'm sure there's no bigger challenge for him than Sydney's West, but it will take much more than a few extra development coaches and an Opening Round of football - none of which is played in the true West - to turn it around.