$18 outsider: Lalor heroics force bookies to slash Rising Star odds

Fair to say the bookies have had a big swing and a miss with the Rising Star market heading into the season, and boy have they moved quickly to correct that.

Coming into Round 1, Richmond youngster Sam Lalor sat at $18 for the award, behind the likes of Levi Ashcroft, Finn O’Sullivan, Isaac Kako, Nate Caddy, Sid Draper and Harvey Langford (and Jagga Smith before his injury).

Why such long odds? Could they have potentially thought he may need some time to develop? Maybe Richmond’s projected win total of 2.5 was in their calculations?

He was sitting at $18 before the pre-season concussion and jaw injury, so that wasn’t a factor.

Being the number one draft pick doesn’t guarantee you early favouritism for the Rising Star, but it does tend to be the case more often than not.

Harley Reid (2024), Jason Horne-Francis (2022), Matt Rowell (2020), Sam Walsh (2019), Cam Rayner (2018) and Andrew McGrath (2017) were all number one draft picks who started their first season as favourite for the award.

Regardless, they didn’t have a heap of faith in the 2024 number one draft pick, who immediately went about proving them wrong on Thursday night.

Lalor’s two goals, 18 disposals, two goal assists and eight score involvements had people making Dustin Martin comparisons and raving about what he could become.

Sportsbet clearly realised their mistake, quickly moving Lalor from $18 to $4 favourite in the Rising Star market.

Similarly, Hawthorn was moved from $10 to $7 favourite to win the premiership after their win over Sydney in Opening Round.

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