The 4 certainties for Carlton versus Hawthorn

Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the Round 2 clash between Carlton and Hawthorn.

Carlton

Walsh to have 25+ disposals

Sam Walsh is a consistent ball gatherer for Carlton.

He was nowhere near his best in last Thursday night’s loss to Richmond but still picked up 25 touches.

In his last 25 games, Walsh has had 25 or more touches on 19 occasions and he simply must stand up if the Blues are to bounce back against the Hawks.

The ball could spend a lot of time on the ground if the forecast rain hits Melbourne and that will bring the hard-working Walsh further into calculations.

Motlop to kick at least a goal

Carlton’s main small forward NEEDS to perform on the big stage tonight.

Jesse Motlop was another Blue below his best against the Tigers, returning two behinds from 10 disposals.

He has kicked 42 goals in 41 career games at AFL level and we’re banking on him reaching that average in the wet against the Hawks.

The Blues need their smalls to have a similar impact as Hawthorn’s have been and a lot of that centres around Motlop.

Andrew Slevison

Hawthorn

Moore 15+ disposals, 1+ goals

The small half-forward is in the form of his life coming off a maiden All-Australian blazer, averaging 2.5 goals and 19.5 disposals a game to start 2025.

Moore has also picked up at least 15 disposals in 15 of his last 16 games. He’s also goaled in seven of his last nine.

Simply put, the 15-touch, one-goal benchmarks should be no issue for him to glide past, especially since the game should favour small, ground-level players in the wet.

It could be a big night for the star Hawk.

Newcombe 20+ disposals

Another that loves tough conditions, Jai Newcombe will be more than ready for a contested slog in the wet on Thursday night.

The big-bodied midfielder has had 20 disposals or more in nine of his last 10 games, including 23 to go with six clearances the last times the teams faced off.

While he had just 19 touches in Opening Round against Sydney, you wouldn’t expect him to fall short of the 20-touch marker twice in his first three games to start 2025.

He should realistically cruise past this benchmark, especially if the weather plays out as forecast.

Lachlan Geleit

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