Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 3

Round 3 is here and some cracking games await us this weekend.

Things kick off on Thursday night between Essendon and Port Adelaide, while Friday plays host to Carlton v Western Bulldogs in what looms as a huge clash for both sides.

Several flag contenders meet on Saturday with the Hawks meeting GWS in Tassie, while the Lions finally meet the Cats after their Opening Round clash was postponed.

Sunday has a couple of interesting games including the Western Derby between West Coast and Fremantle.

Collingwood and Sydney take the week off with the bye after their Opening Round schedules.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

Essendon v Port Adelaide

Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

It’s been a tough start for the Dons who lost to Hawthorn by 26 points in Round 1, before copping a 61-point shellacking at the hands of Adelaide last weekend.

They have coughed up scores of 111 and 161 which is a worry given teams that have played more games have conceded less.

The challenge for Brad Scott’s side is to tighten up at the back which could be made easier by the return of Jordan Ridley, but they do get a Port side that kicked 140 against Richmond.

The Power orchestrated a 163-point turnaround, smashing the Tigers by 72 points last weekend on the back of their 15-goal loss to the Magpies. It was an easy kill for Ken Hinkley’s side, but they did it in style from the first bounce and played themselves into form. The win did come at a cost with recruit Jack Lukosius succumbing to a fractured kneecap, further denying their tall forward stocks. A second trip to Melbourne in three weeks now beckons.

Port have been dominant over the Bombers with an eight-game winning streak which commenced in 2019. In that time there have been a handful of results in excess of 50 points, including a 69-point drubbing in Round 4 last year.

Given Essendon’s defensive woes and the fact that the Power are fresh off a fill-up, it makes sense to side with the form team on this occasion. Port should be able to score at least 80 against a leaky Dons defence, they’ll just have to avoid a capitulation like they produced against Collingwood in Round 1.

The Bombers will be desperate for an improved display, and that is entirely possible, yet they might just lack the overall class to win.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 22 points.

Andrew Slevison

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Friday - 7:40pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

Carlton have started the 2025 season 0-2 and it feels like the whole footy world is closing in on the club. That pressure will likely intensify on Friday night.

While they performed much better in Round 2 against Hawthorn after their Round 1 capitulation against Richmond, the Blues have had their depth, skills and game plan questioned by many after a fortnight of subpar footy.

As for the Dogs, they battled hard in their 100-year anniversary game last weekend against Collingwood but ultimately went down by a goal. While they have a raft of stars on the sidelines, Luke Beveridge has his team playing a tough and spirited brand of footy which has delivered them a 1-1 start to the season.

Even though the Bulldogs are without several key pieces, their floor still looks pretty high based on their first two games of the season and there’s no doubt that base level will be enough to take care of the Blues if they offer up what they did in Round 1.

But if it's the Round 2 Blues that we saw against Hawthorn, this is absolutely game on.

Ultimately, the Dogs just look a more safe pick as we think we can bank on at least at 6 or 7 out of 10 from them. The Blues could offer us somewhere between a 3 and 8 based on what we've seen so far.

This could end up a battle of who offers more inside 50 of Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton against Charlie Curnow and McKay ??????? and there's no doubt Carlton's forwards are more than good enough on their day, but we're backing the Dogs to consign the Blues to their 10th loss from their last 12 games.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Melbourne v Gold Coast

Saturday - 1:20pm AEDT – MCG

The Demons have claimed a glut of media attention this week… for all the wrong reasons. A poor performance saw them fall by 59 points to the Kangaroos, conceding 11 goals and kicking only three in the second half.

An unfortunate press conference slip-up from coach Simon Goodwin threw Max Gawn into the fray, with questions surrounding his personal struggles stealing headlines. On the field, Kade Chandler played his best game for the club with 25 disposals and three goals). Concerns remain over defensive duo Jake Lever (ankle) and Steven May (fractured larynx) with both set for fitness tests ahead of the clash with the Suns.

The Suns have played just one game in 2025 thus far, following an Opening Round rescheduling and a bye in Round 2, however their solo contest was enough to impress. An 87-point walloping of the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium sent alarm bells ringing for the rest of the competition. A dominant performance inside from newly appointed captain Noah Anderson (36 disposals, nine clearances), partnered with six majors from Ben King headlined the overwhelming victory for Damien Hardwick's men.

This is as telling as telling gets in the forecasting of a club’s potential. One side - the Demons - fell rather drastically to North Melbourne in a result very few saw coming. On the other hand, the Suns have been under the microscope for some time, failing to ever find a top eight finish in the club’s now 14-year run despite a glut of talent.

Melbourne may be without key stocks as both May and Lever race the clock to compete, as a six-day turnaround does the club no favours against a fresh Suns outfit. If Gold Coast can hit this contest as they did against the Eagles, and Melbourne serve up the same performance as the weekend, this result is a no-brainer.

We can expect the Dees to bounce back to some extent, however will it be enough to compete with a raging Suns side?

Prediction: Gold Coast by 24 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

St Kilda v Richmond

Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

St Kilda at Marvel Stadium are a different beast.

They have won six of their last eight games overall, with all wins coming at the venue, so it’s fair to say they should be teeming with confidence come Saturday twilight.

The potential return of Liam Henry and Cooper Sharman will be welcome to add some class to the forward mix; but the loss of Liam Stocker and Hunter Clark removes some experience. Arie Schoenmaker, Tobie Travaglia and Jack Carroll would be in selection talks after strong VFL performances.

Tom Lynch’s Tigers return will be much needed against the Saints, who are still missing Dougal Howard. Tyler Sonsie and Kane McAuliffe pressed their cases for selection in a VFL win last week, while Josh Smillie will need to have a run in the magoos before AFL selection.

The confidence of these young Tigers would have been dinted in the wake of a Port Adelaide smacking. We will have to wait and see which version of the much-maligned side turns out this week.

It should be fairly comfortable for the Saints who have won five of their last six over the Tigers. Although, trustworthiness is not necessarily something you can associate with the side at the moment.

If the best Richmond shows up like we saw against Carlton they can definitely cause a stir, but Ross Lyon would not allow his troops to take this clash lightly.

The Saints have struggled to put away opponents in recent times, but the 48-point win late last year against the Tigers may be a sign of what’s to come.

Prediction: St Kilda by 57 points.

Ethan Clark

Hawthorn v GWS

Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT – UTAS Stadium

Two premiership fancies facing off against each other already. How good is this!

Both sides enter this contest as two of the in-form teams in the competition, with the Hawks on top of the ladder undefeated and the Giants sitting pretty in third without a loss as well.

Hawthorn has silenced the doubters early this season, with slick ball movement and an elite backline getting the better of Sydney, Essendon and Carlton so far – with all games being handled very professionally by one of the younger teams in the competition.

The professionalism shown already by this young squad has been ultra-impressive to say the least. This should hold them in good stead for the rest of the 2025 season.

As for the Giants, the disappointment of last season’s straight sets finals exit hasn’t been an issue early in 2025, with their two victories impressing a lot of neutrals despite not having their reigning Coleman medallist out there to help get the job done.

Jesse Hogan, who kicked a career best 77 goals last season, is a chance to play his first game of the season for the club after suffering a broken finger in a bizarre bus ride incident during the pre-season.

Will his inclusion be able to get the visitors over the line on Saturday night? If they were against any other side, the simple answer would be yes. But this Hawks backline is a different bread in 2025 and can’t be taken lightly!

Prediction: Hawthorn by 10 points.

Zac Sharpe

Brisbane v Geelong

Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT – Gabba

The rescheduled Opening Round fixture finally gets off the ground this Saturday night.

Reigning premiers the Brisbane Lions host Geelong, the club they defeated in last year’s Preliminary Final, in an early-season blockbuster.

The Lions have ground out two tough wins to start their title defence, most recently responding from an uninspiring first half against West Coast to get home by 19 points.

Chris Fagan should have dynamic small forwards Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann to pick from which is set to spark the forward line.

The Cats almost did the unthinkable, coming from five goals down at three-quarter time to almost nab St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. They were horrible in the first half but turned their dismal performance around on the run, however, it didn’t result in victory.

Chris Scott often fixes issues quickly and Cats fans can be assured that they’ll be fiercer at the contest this weekend.

Cats star Tom Stewart dodged a bullet with his knee issue and could still play on Saturday night. A massive win for the club.

Ironically, after the initial fixture was postponed by Cyclone Alfred, there is a deluge of rain forecast in Brisbane which threatens to severely impact this match.

It’ll likely be a grind and after a very tough contest in the 30-plus degree heat in high humidity, the energy of the Lions could be sapped.

This should be a ripper, but perhaps the Cats will have the fresher legs to finish off late in the piece, as they did at the Gabba in Round 6 last year.

Prediction: Geelong by 9 points.

Andrew Slevison

Adelaide v North Melbourne

Sunday - 3:20pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval

Have the Kangaroos got another spirited display in the tank to slow down the red-hot Crows?

Adelaide couldn’t have dreamed of a better start to the season, absolutely dominating their first two games against St Kilda and Essendon, having scored over 130 points in both outings.

They’ll be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a North Melbourne side that isn’t known for their defensive prowess, having conceded the eighth-most points so far in 2025, just one season on from being the AFL’s worst defensive team. (The Roos were much better in this area last week, conceding just 66 to the Dees).

Despite this, the Roos are coming off one of their best wins in recent years, thumping the Demons by 59 points, their biggest winning margin since 2020.

Everything North touched turned to gold last Sunday, with their sheer dominance in all aspects of the ground providing the blueprint for the club’s return to contention.

Yet they’ll need to put together another flawless performance in order to challenge Adelaide on their home deck, having never won against the Crows at Adelaide Oval.

With how deadly Matthew Nicks’ men can be if they get on a roll, this clash has the potential to get ugly in a hurry, especially if North can’t muster back-to-back impressive defensive efforts.

Prediction: Adelaide by 34 points.

Jack Makeham

West Coast v Fremantle

Sunday - 6:10pm AEDT – Optus Stadium

A winless start to 2025 will not come as a shock to most, however, it's not all doom and gloom for West Coast.

The Eagles put up an encouraging effort against the reigning premiers over the weekend, firing home the first five goals before falling to the Lions late in the contest. The spirited showing displayed positive glimpses into the future of the club, with youngsters Tyrell Dewar (20 disposals, two goals) and Ryan Maric (26 disposals, five intercepts) playing their best games, while Harley Reid stole the headlines for his inappropriate gesture.

The absence of the injured Jake Waterman proved costly, but the Eagles will take plenty of positives into the Western Derby.

Fremantle have failed to jump in 2025, winless through two after falling short in a low-scoring contest with the Swans. Ahead until the final two minutes, the Dockers will rue missed opportunities, handing Sydney their first win of the season.

Jaeger O’Meara (32 disposals, five clearances) has proved his importance within a struggling midfield, while Josh Treacy (Four goals, seven marks) kicked off his campaign after a slow start against Geelong. With question marks surrounding coach Justin Longmuir, the Dockers have plenty to prove ahead of a must-win Derby.

Table positions and expectations are out the window in heavily-weighted Derby matchups, however this contest takes place at rock bottom of the AFL ladder. While both sides enter the contest without a win, the pressure all falls on the shoulders of the Dockers, who several expected to lock up a top eight spot in 2025.

If the Eagles can make a habit of firing early as they did against the reigning premiers, they are every chance of making this one a tight contest. The Dockers enter as favourites, and despite an agonisingly slow start, expect Freo to kickstart their September charge on the biggest stage out west.

Prediction: Fremantle by 42 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

BYES: Collingwood, Sydney.