Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 5

Round 5 is here with all 18 teams heading to South Australia for Gather Round!

Geelong came from behind to beat Adelaide by 19 points on Thursday night, ahead of the Friday night blockbuster between Collingwood and Sydney.

Saturday is scattered across the city with the Barossa and Norwood also hosting fixtures. The winless match between Carlton and West Coast as well as Western Bulldogs v Brisbane will no doubt catch the eye.

Sunday's big game finishes off the round with Port hosting Hawthorn for the first time since last year's controversial Semi-Final.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

Adelaide v Geelong

Thursday - 7:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

How will Adelaide respond after yet another controversial loss was handed their way last week?

The Crows left Gold Coast with nothing but heartbreak in Round 4, once again suffering defeat in controversial circumstances after fighting tooth and nail against a valiant Suns outfit in an early contender for game of the season.

It marked the first loss for Adelaide in 2025, having taken the competition by storm with their three-headed monster of a tall forward line, spearheaded by the current (equal) Coleman leader Riley Thilthorpe.

They’ll welcome a Geelong side fresh off a comfortable win over the struggling Demons, a victory that the Cats very much welcomed after dropping back-to-back single-digit games to close out March.

While facing off against a Crows outfit in search of redemption on their own turf looks a daunting task for any side, the Cats are no stranger to rising to the occasion at Adelaide Oval, having won five of their last six at the ground and boasting an undefeated record at the ground.

The Crows haven’t had much luck against Geelong in recent years, having come out on top in this matchup just once since 2018.

While Adelaide are certainly one of the form teams of the competition so far in 2025, the Cats have more than enough firepower to match the Crows in what should be an electric Gather Round opener.

Regardless of result, expect this clash to set the bar high for the entire festival of footy.

Prediction: Geelong by 5 points.

Jack Makeham

Collingwood v Sydney

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Friday night’s clash between the Magpies and Swans looms as a huge test for both sides.

While we know what these sides can offer at their best over the last two seasons, both still have serious questions hanging over them in 2025. Perhaps the winner here will emerge as a real top four and flag contender.

Collingwood probably deserve to enter as favourites based on what they’ve produced so far at 3-1, but the Swans have come back to life in the last fortnight with wins over Fremantle and North Melbourne.

The pick here would probably be Collingwood if they weren’t losing all of Jordan De Goey, Dan Houston and Lachie Schultz from last week, but without those three names, this looms as just about a 50-50.

Collingwood have one of the league’s best defences based on what we’ve seen so far, and if they can keep the Swans below 70 – as they have to the last three teams they’ve played – they should have enough firepower to get it done.

For the Swans, they’ll hope to get their attack firing as it did last week against the Roos and hope that their midfielders make a real impact on the scoreboard. They’ve also beaten the Pies in five of their last six games.

If Collingwood matches Sydney around the ball, the rest of their game is firing enough to get the job done. You’d imagine that’s where the game will be won or lost for either side.

Prediction: Collingwood by 4 points.

Lachlan Geleit

North Melbourne v Gold Coast

Saturday - 12:35pm AEST – Barossa Park

A new chapter begins at Barossa Park, as it hosts its first-ever AFL clash — and what a match-up to debut the venue.

Gold Coast have started 2025 with a bang. After back-to-back beltings over West Coast and Melbourne by a combined margin of 145 points, they cemented their legitimacy with a gutsy win over premiership hopes Adelaide. Sitting third on the ladder with a mammoth percentage, the Suns look like a genuine September side.

Ben King has led the charge with 12 goals from three games, and with Gold Coast averaging 17 majors per game, there’s no shortage of firepower in Damien Hardwick’s side. With their side almost at full strength, the Suns will fancy their chances of putting on another show.

North Melbourne have also had bright moments of their own. Their 59-point thrashing of Melbourne turned heads, and they gave both the Bulldogs and Crows a real shake. But last week’s 65-point belting from Sydney was a harsh reminder of their youth and inconsistency.

Despite that Sydney thumping Nick Larkey is leading the Coleman with 14 goals, and North's ability to accumulate and use the ball has been elite, sitting third in the AFL for total disposals and first for efficiency.

George Wardlaw and Will Phillips are a chance to return after dominating in the VFL, while No. 2 pick Finn O’Sullivan could also come in, after missing last week due to illness.

If the Roos are to cause an upset, their ball use inside 50 must be near-perfect. But with the Suns bringing relentless pressure and a forward line that punishes even the smallest mistake, it’s hard to see North holding up for four quarters.

Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring shootout — but one the Suns should control.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 43 points

Connor Scanlon

Carlton v West Coast

Saturday - 1:20pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

This game will be watched with morbid curiosity from both sets of fans and neutrals alike.

If West Coast lose, or worse lose convincingly, then a massive chance to show some signs of improvement dissipates.

Meanwhile, if Carlton can’t beat the 51.9% last-placed Eagles… that’s when this recent noise from supporters will have to become noise internally.

Lachie Cowan will miss for Carlton with a hamstring injury while Jake Waterman and Jack Hutchinson have travelled to SA as potential additions for the Eagles. Liam Ryan should be back to strengthen the forward line as well.

An average Blues winning margin of 81 points is the record for these sides’ last three meetings – this includes a 65-point win at Optus Stadium where Carlton was without both Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.

If they are to use personnel as an excuse, 16 of the 23 that defeated the Eagles in the last clash were in the side that lost to Collingwood last week. It's clear the mental side is weighing heavily on this Carlton group.

Maybe an escape to the Adelaide Oval will help rid some demons and take the pressure of the baying Blues faithful filling the MCG stands away from Michael Voss’ men; it may be just what they, and hopeful returnee Harry McKay, need.

There are serious, serious problems at Carlton if they can’t get this job done and I fear the fall-out if that eventuates.

But surely it will not.

Carlton has to go exorcise some demons and West Coast will present the perfect opportunity.

Prediction: Carlton by 43 points.

Ethan Clark

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST – Norwood Oval

An interesting game awaits fans at Norwood on Saturday, with the plucky Dogs facing a Lions side that is 4-0.

While Brisbane are unblemished, the Bulldogs have started off the season with two wins and two losses but haven’t lost any admirers in either of those defeats.

Still undermanned with several key players out with injuries, the Bulldogs have proven that they will at least offer up strong resistance to any opposition they play this year.

Conversely, Brisbane's team is incredibly strong, and perhaps the scariest thing about this side is that they're yet to find their best.With that in mind, the Lions deserve to go in favourites with every game they play in for the foreseeable future.

For the Dogs, with Marcus Bontempelli out, young forward Sam Darcy has assumed the role as his club’s match-winning option. The 21-year-old has kicked 11 goals in his last three games while dominating aerially and they'll need him to fire if they have any chance of causing an upset here.

The Lions most recently beat the Bulldogs by 43 points when the teams met at Marvel Stadium in Round 13, last season. While you’d expect this one to be closer, the Lions are still the obvious pick here.

Prediction: Brisbane by 25 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Melbourne v Essendon

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The last time these two sides faced off, Melbourne boldly came in without a ruckman and got the job done on a rainy Saturday night at the MCG. Both sides were also sitting inside the top eight after that match with only seven games remaining in the season.

Since then, Melbourne have won just one game and the Bombers have recorded two wins. What a fall from grace for both sides.

The Demons have been the talk of the town so far this year and it hasn’t been for the right reasons. The 2021 premiers are still yet to win a game this season and have lost three of their first four games by an average margin of 52 points.

Essendon, however, gained their first win of the season with a courageous effort against Port Adelaide in Round 3, where their young crop stood tall to help them get over the line.

Can Melbourne’s stars finally fire to help them get over the line for the first time this year? Most people would think so.

But with the disconnect the club has on the field with their ball movement and their inside 50 entries, plus the fact that the Bombers are coming off a bye after their win against the Power, it seems more likely that Essendon will continue their winning ways and make it two from two against the Demons in Gather Round.

Prediction: Essendon by 15 points.

Zac Sharpe

Richmond v Fremantle

Sunday - 12:35pm AEST – Barossa Park

The youthful Tigers have showed plenty of heart at stages in their first four contests.

After claiming a victory nobody thought possible over Carlton, they last put up a performance to be proud of against the Lions with the 90 points the best they've managed since Round 2, 2024.

With the emergence of No.1 pick Sam Lalor (24 disposals, 10 score involvements, four goal assists, two goals), confident performances from youngsters Luke Trainor (19 disposals) and Harry Armstrong (six marks, two goals), Richmond has plenty to look forward to.

The Dockers are back on track in 2025, picking off consecutive wins including a hearty performance against the Bulldogs to climb to the outskirts of the eight. Freo’s talent has started to shine, with Caleb Serong, Josh Treacy and Luke Jackson all firing, although Jackson will miss with a hamstring injury. With former Tiger Shai Bolton fitting in like a glove, Murphy Reid playing like a star on the horizon and the return of Hayden Young, Sean Darcy and Nat Fyfe imminent, coach Justin Longmuir will have stars at his disposal as Freo looks to make a real charge following a staggered start.

Off the back of a respectable showing against the premiers, Richmond will give itself every chance of another scalp at the neutral venue in the Barossa. Adem Yze’s men will take confidence on the road as they look to hijack another four points, but Fremantle has the weapons to put it to bed with relative ease.

Bolton will be a point of interest against his old club, but he and the Dockers will want to kill the contest early. The Tigers will be plucky, but Freo is the safer bet.

Prediction: Fremantle by 45 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

St Kilda v GWS

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – Norwood Oval

St Kilda has recovered sensationally from their 63-point loss to Adelaide in Round 1, winning three on the trot under Ross Lyon.

They have scored 322 points at an average of 107.3 in those three triumphs with Jack Higgins and Mitch Owens combining for 18 goals in that time. The Saints have saluted in nine of their last 12 overall, indicating that what Lyon has been trying to implement is now starting to work. If they can get captain Jack Steele back for this crunch clash with the Giants, then they could be a cheeky chance.

After dropping their Round 3 fixture to the all-conquering Hawks, the Giants recoiled in frightening fashion against West Coast last week. The 81-point demolition job was highlighted by Jesse Hogan’s equal career-best haul of nine goals from the team’s 20.12.(132). There were also fill-ups for Tom Green (37 disposals, seven clearances), Lachie Whitfield (35 disposals) and Toby Greene (24 disposals, three goals), denoting that the Giants’ stars are in pretty good touch right now. It was only the Eagles but they should be taken seriously as genuine contenders.

It’s hard to tip against the Giants in this situation. They’ve won their last two over the Saints who previously had a near-monopoly on the fixture with four in a row. Adam Kingsley’s side certainly won’t get it as easy this weekend as they did last, but they really should be good enough to add a fourth win to their season tally. The Saints are set up to give a very strong account of themselves, and although they’ll challenge at times, they might just fall short.

Prediction: GWS by 15 points.

Andrew Slevison

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

Sunday - 7:20pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The succession plan at Port Adelaide is not quite going to plan. The Power slumped to a 1-3 beginning in Ken Hinkley’s final season in charge with a home loss to St Kilda last weekend. They were jumped by the Saints, conceding six goals in the first term, and could never reel the visitors in. There were major positives in the return of Zak Butters (30 disposals, nine clearances) and the return to form of Jason Horne-Francis (28 disposals, three goals), but it gets no easier with the undefeated Hawks next up in Gather Round.

Sam Mitchell’s Hawthorn is reeling from the news that star midfielder Will Day will miss up to four months after a recurrence of his foot stress fracture this week. It's an untimely blow for a team that would have been feeling fresh and vibrant after four straight wins and a week off. On the flipside, James Worpel should return for the Power clash to boost the midfield in Day's absence.

The top-of-the-table Hawks kept their unbeaten status intact against GWS in Round 3 and will be eager to maintain the rage. Winning games of footy with key contributors out would certainly be to Mitchell’s liking.

This one should be popcorn for neutrals. It’s the first time the two sides have met since Kenny’s dig at Jack Ginnivan following Port’s dramatic semi-final win at the same venue. The Power have won five of their past six against the Hawks, but that trend should change here. Mitchell has them playing a ruthless brand of footy and there is more than enough substance there to tip them with confidence. Port will likely have a crack, but do they lack the overall class?

Prediction: Hawthorn by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison