Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 5, 2026

Gather Round is here!

Sandwiched by the hosts, Adelaide kicks off proceedings against Carlton before Port Adelaide closes the round against St Kilda in an iconic festival of football.

With all 18 teams taking part for just the second time this season, we've broken down all nine games across a big weekend in South Australia.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

ADELAIDE v CARLTON

Thursday - 7:40pm AEDT - Adelaide Oval

Adelaide could well have started the season 4-0, however at 1-3, last year’s minor premiers have some work to do. After knocking off the Pies in Round 1, the Crows have lost three straight games by a combined 16 points, with the Bulldogs, Cats and Dockers proving too good in the latter stages. Kicking off Gather Round in their own backyard against weaker opposition will certainly aid momentum going forward, however, a 1-4 start would be nothing short of a disaster.

Carlton's struggles have been well covered, losing three games from winning positions and barely holding on for a win against the Tigers to mirror the Crows' 1-3 record. Round 4’s Good Friday clash was certainly one to forget, crumbling late in the contest yet again to lose to North Melbourne by 10 points. With Michael Voss’ job security rapidly fading, the Blues will need to find some sort of spark, even in the absence of Jacob Weitering, Harry Dean and Will Hayward.

To cut a long story short, this could get ugly for the Blues. Without several of their key pillars including Weitering and the axed George Hewett, Carlton’s depth will be tested in one of the more difficult fixtures on their calendar - opening Gather Round against the hosts themselves.

Voss already has his back against the wall, but this one may be too far beyond his control. As for the Crows, expect this contest to prove handy in harnessing momentum to take into the season, particularly after losing three consecutive heartbreakers that could have gone either way. In front of a lively Adelaide Oval, expect the Crows to do some serious damage.

Prediction: Adelaide by 37 points. 

Jaiden Sciberras

COLLINGWOOD v FREMANTLE

Friday - 7:40pm AEDT - Adelaide Oval

Collingwood are slowly on the decline, but they still have veteran class in every position around the ground. However, the Pies were recently thrashed by the Lions with Nick Daicos a late out with a corked calf. This showcased just how important the elite midfielder is to the Collingwood outfit, and the Pies will need to do everything they can to make sure the 23-year-old stays fit moving forward. While the Pies most likely won’t win the flag this season, they are definitely still a chance to make finals with the introduction of the Wildcard Round.

On the other hand, the Dockers are a real premiership threat in 2026, winning three of their first four games, with their only loss coming from a second-half choke against Geelong. Fremantle’s list is primed for a launch at the flag, as it oozes class in every position. From Josh Treacy up forward to Alex Pearce down back, the Dockers spine is incredible, and they will be a tough matchup for any team this year.

Fremantle are no strangers to a second-half choke against the elite teams of the competition this season, conceding a combined 121 points after the main break to Geelong and Adelaide while only scoring 50 themselves. However, the Pies are just below the same category as those two teams. With the matchup being played at a neutral ground at Adelaide Oval, expect the Dockers to walk away with the four points here.

Prediction: Fremantle by 19 points.

Connor Scanlon

NORTH MELBOURNE v BRISBANE

Saturday - 12:35pm AEDT - Barossa Park

After a three quarter-time spray from Alastair Clarkson on Good Friday, the Roos kicked seven final-quarter goals for a come-from-behind victory over Carlton to secure back-to-back wins for the first time since 2023. But all of their opponents have been from outside last year’s top eight and all their wins have been at Marvel Stadium. On neutral turf against the reigning premiers, this is their toughest test yet.

The Lions have won their past two over St Kilda and Collingwood to even their ledger after two early losses. Their makeshift defence conceded just 15 scoring shots to Collingwood and will be strengthened by co-captain Harris Andrews’ return from a three-week suspension. Gather Round has taken the Lions to Mt Barker (2023), Norwood (2024-25) and now Lyndoch, but surely a team of this calibre deserves to play at Adelaide Oval.

The third edition of Roos v Lions at Gather Round at its third venue. The Lions have two wins in a row and are unbeaten at this event and will go in confident despite their frustration about the off-Broadway fixturing. Look out for Will Ashcroft – the dual Norm Smith medallist has taken his game to another level with two best afield displays in the past fortnight.

Prediction: Lions by 44 points.

Eddie Cook

ESSENDON v MELBOURNE

Saturday - 1:15pm AEDT - Adelaide Oval

After a disastrous first month, Essendon showed significant improvement last week in its toughest test yet. After conceding seven goals in the first quarter, the Bombers put a renewed focus on team defence and outscored the Bulldogs for the rest of the night. Peter Wright shifted to the ruck in the second half and was influential, while Archer May and Tom Edwards showed good presence with two goals apiece in Nate Caddy’s absence.

The Demons have been the surprise packet of 2026 with their electric style under new coach Steven King, and last week was their most impressive yet. After conceding four of the first five goals, they persisted with their brand and rolled one of the the flag favourites. Kysaiah Pickett has starred with 58 disposals and two goals in the past two games, while Jack Steele was excellent against the Suns with 26 disposals and 11 clearances.

Tipping this game at the start of the season was a coin flip but Melbourne’s form has made it a no-brainer. Steven King’s plan may have seemed a new fad, but last week the Demons proved it can stand up against the best. While they may make this a one-sided affair, there’s no doubt it will be exciting. Enjoy the show.

Prediction: Melbourne by 37 points.

Eddie Cook

SYDNEY v GOLD COAST

Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT - Norwood Oval

The Swans head to Adelaide after spanking West Coast by 128 points in Perth last weekend. Isaac Heeney, Brodie Grundy, Chad Warner and 200-gamer Tom Papley starred for Sydney with big showings while lesser-knowns Riley Bice and Jai Serong were also excellent.

It’s hard to gauge what a team is capable of on the back of such an easy kill but there is little doubt that Dean Cox won’t be allowing his Bloods to walk away satisfied.

Just as we were all starting to believe, Damien Hardwick’s Gold Coast produced a very ‘Sunsy’ performance against Melbourne in Round 4. They were heavily favoured to beat the Demons but failed in doing so, resulting in a season-first defeat for the flag fancies. Those premiership credentials did take a slight hit.

The Suns did the business with a 38-point triumph over the Swannies early last season which followed three straight defeats - two of which were in Sydney.

Beware the wounded Sun, especially a team coached by Dimma, but it just feels like the Swans are a little more dependable right now. Their stars are in better form as it stands and they’ve been super impressive in their three 2026 victories to date.

A neutral venue at Norwood makes this fixture extra fascinating and throwing up more uncertainty, but we’ll lean ever so slightly to the Swans.

Prediction: Sydney by 6 points.

Andrew Slevison

HAWTHORN v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

The Hawks returned from a lengthy break to pull off an epic win by a solitary point over Geelong on Easter Monday. The triumph, which didn’t look likely with only minutes remaining, improved their record to 3-1 and has them sitting inside the top six. Sam Mitchell will be hoping veteran Jack Gunston’s hamstring and co-captain James Sicily’s shoulder both aren’t too bad as they were instrumental in the dying moments. It gets no easier with the top-of-the-table Dogs next up.

Unbeaten, on top of the ladder and with a healthy percentage - all is well at The Kennel… BUT there are a few injuries creeping in that could impact Luke Beveridge’s in-form team. Ruckman Tim English hurt his MCL in the 34-point win over Essendon which star midfielder Ed Richards missed due to a knee tendon issue. Throw in dynamic small forward Arty Jones, who injured his hamstring, and there’s enough to slightly dampen what has been a very impressive beginning.

The Dogs have done little wrong to start the 2026 season and are rightly considered genuine premiership contenders. However, they are 0-6 in South Australia since last winning there in 2021. Similarly, the Hawks are yet to win in three Gather Round attempts but should put that right here. They’ve a few less personnel issues to worry about and their game is in good order. If the Dogs can cover for English and Richards (still a test) in midfield they can win, but it might prove too tough a task.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 18 points.

Andrew Slevison

GEELONG v WEST COAST

Sunday - 12:30pm AEST - Norwood Oval

This one probably won't be close...

Geelong gave a strong account of themselves on Easter Monday before ultimately going down by one point in a thriller to Hawthorn. Their 2-2 start has been solid given who they’ve faced so far, with this clash their first chance against a real cellar-dwelling outfit.

Everyone knows this Geelong side is good, but are they great like they were in 2025? That’s the big question facing them at the moment as they’re not quite firing on all cylinders despite having a healthy list to pick from.

It’s been a season of early improvement for West Coast who have already won more games than they did in 2025, but their bad games are still horrible. They had one of those in Round 4 against Sydney, going down by 128 points at home.

Harley Reid looks an improved player this season despite a quiet outing against the Swans, while No. 1 pick Willem Duursma looks like a potential superstar in the making. The green shoots would be exciting Eagles fans.

Even if West Coast are improved and giving fans a reason to tune into games, no one’s expecting them to get this one done against Geelong. The Cats will also love playing at Norwood, with the narrow dimensions the closest the competition has to GMHBA Stadium.

The Cats have far too much class around the ground, and should really put the Eagles to the sword. Anything close will be a mini-win for West Coast who have been blown out by good teams this season.

Prediction: Geelong by 51 points.

Lachlan Geleit

GWS GIANTS v RICHMOND

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Barossa Park

Having started the season on a high with an Opening Round win, three losses in a row have quickly plunged the injury-depleted Giants into the bottom three entering their bye last week. With GWS able to enjoy the Easter break footy free, they enter South Australia with a cleaner bill of health as Aaron Cadman (pelvis), Brent Daniels (hamstring), Toby Bedford (hamstring) and Jack Buckley (concussion) are all in the mix for a return, which will make a big difference at both ends of the ground.

Yet to win a game in 2026, the Tigers currently find themselves planted at the bottom of the ladder. Scoring an average of 55.5 points this season, Richmond’s struggles in attack have hindered their ability to compete despite the best efforts of their defence. The forward structure without Tom Lynch is totally at sea. Having not won in three Gather Round attempts, they'll be hoping to change their fortunes at the football festival and for their season overall with an upset win.

While the Tigers do have experience playing at Barossa Park (losing to Freo by 61 points), it’s hard to see them coming away with the win. The Giants expect to bring four of their regular best 23 back into the side, and that boost alone should well and truly be enough to get the job done and see Richmond go 0-5 for the first time since 2010.

Prediction: GWS by 34 points.

Nicholas Quinlan

PORT ADELAIDE v ST KILDA

Sunday - 7:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide have never lost at Gather Round, but that might be about to change here.

The Power are 2-2 in 2026, but have faced no one of any significance with wins against Essendon and Richmond and losses against West Coast and North Melbourne.

While St Kilda haven’t shot the lights out themselves, they entered this season with expectations well beyond any of that group.

Simply put, if the Saints’ defence stands up and their offence has any kind of spark to it, they should be able to get the job done.

One thing that will make them nervous though is losses in six of their last seven against the Power. Thankfully, they won the last one of those meetings, which came by 17 points at the Adelaide Oval.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was one of his side’s best in that game with a goal and 25 disposals. If he fires again, St Kilda should be a little too slick for a Port Adelaide side without some of their key names like Connor Rozee.

Expect Port to put up somewhat of a fight in front of their home crowd, but surely St Kilda prevail if they’re anything serious this season.

Prediction: St Kilda by 22 points.

Lachlan Geleit