Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 13, 2026

A massive weekend of footy awaits us as we enter the King's Birthday long weekend across much of the country.

Things start with an intriguing clash between the Crows and Cats at the Adelaide Oval, while Friday sees the Hawks and Dogs face off in a potentially top six shaping clash.

Saturday's best game is the Q-Clash between a Gold Coast and Brisbane side we're struggling to get a read on, while Sunday night plays host to a battle of the interim coaches when rivals Essendon and Carlton meet.

The highlight will no doubt be Monday's Big Freeze at the 'G between Collingwood and Melbourne as the footy world pays tribute to the late, great Neale Daniher.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

ADELAIDE V GEELONG

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Last year’s minor premiers, the Adelaide Crows have struggled in their minor title defence. Six wins from their first 11 games, Matthew Nicks’ men haven’t been able to produce the same damaging brand as they did in 2025. As it stands, the Crows are yet to beat a side that are currently in finals contention, most recently falling to Hawthorn in Tasmania in Round 11. Entering tonight off a bye round, the Crows will be without superstars Izak Rankine and Riley Thilthorpe, while Mid-Season draftee Hugo Hall-Kahan debuts.

A four-week run of form propelled the Cats to premiership favourites, and despite a shock loss to the Blues last weekend, little has changed. In typical Geelong fashion, the hoops are once again pushing the benchmark of the AFL, knocking off Brisbane and Sydney in succession to transition from finals contender to flag morals. That said, the in-form Blues under Josh Fraser pipped them at the death to slow their momentum and cut their win streak at just four. The top four hopefuls enter tonight with a relatively healthy list, as Jack Bowes plays game 150.

It goes without saying that the Crows absolutely need to win this game. Sat in the Wildcard places without a win against top opposition, Adelaide have the perfect opportunity to make a real statement at home against one of the game’s best. That said, it will not be an easy task. Geelong may have let one slip against the Blues, but make no mistake, the Cats remain one of the toughest opponents on the calendar. Home ground advantage works heavily in the Crows’ favour, as Geelong’s last visit saw them fall to the Power by five goals. That said, without the help of Thilthorpe and Rankine, it’s hard to see the Crows over the line.

Prediction: Geelong by 21 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

HAWTHORN V WESTERN BULLDOGS

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG

Things are well and truly back on track at Hawthorn following a mini form slump a few weeks back. The Hawks cast St Kilda aside by 52 points last weekend and now firmly reside in the top four. There are very few injury issues, their game is in good order and their stars are playing well, especially attacking gems Jack Gunston and Nick Watson, while co-captain James Sicily has rediscovered his best form. Gun forward Jack Gunston is out of the side with that pesky foot issue which is a majoir blow for the Hawks.

The hearts of Doggies fans have been tested after back-to-back nail-biters, making it three wins by four points or less in their last four outings. The Dogs have been full of steely resolve of late which has allowed them to steer the ship back on course after a torrid four-game losing streak. Last weekend’s four-point triumph over Collingwood has Luke Beveridge’s side sitting seventh at 7-5 amidst a tricky run of fixtures prior to their Round 16 bye. The good news is that Cody Weightman will play his first game in 637 days after a wretched run.

Two teams with two wins on the trot clash at the MCG - a venue at which these clubs have met just twice in the last nine years prior to tonight. The Hawks have claimed five victories in succession over the Dogs and their overall form is more positive than their rivals right now. Sam Mitchell seemingly has more out-and-out attacking options at his disposal but Bevo is getting goals from midfielders Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards. On paper it’s Hawthorn’s to lose, but the Dogs will throw down the challenge.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 14 points.

Andrew Slevison

NORTH MELBOURNE V FREMANTLE

Saturday - 2:15pm AEST - Hands Oval

The Kangas are riding high off the bye and after the most impressive and rousing win this club has seen in some time against Sydney.

It will be intriguing to see how the second trip to Bunbury goes for the Kangaroos after a 10-point win last year against West Coast. A much more difficult task awaits with Fremantle driving a couple of hours down the coast with a win to make it 12 on the trot, especially with Finn O’Sullivan missing.

However, confidence is high and North couldn’t ask for a better time to play the ladder leaders. Could they beat the top two in back-to-back outings?

This steam train seems to be relatively unstoppable for now. The variety of styles they have won continues to impress as Justin Longmuir’s men find themselves a game clear atop the ladder. Dismantling Brisbane at the GABBA is all the proof needed that this team deserves their premiership favouritism.

It would be a shock to drop this one to an up-and-comer and Longmuir should be able to find motivation in quelling a confident and hungry North Melbourne.

If this was played at Marvel Stadium, I could see a genuine smoky chance for the Kangaroos. But the $1 million decision to play this one in Bunbury today may make this one a bridge too far. Freo have an average winning margin of 28 in their 11-game win streak, and I imagine this will be a similar story against a side still aiming for consistency week to week.

Keen to find out what North are made of against a genuine contender, but the Dockers are going to take something special to topple.

Prediction: Fremantle by 34 points.

Ethan Clark

GOLD COAST V BRISBANE

Saturday - 5:15pm AEST - People First Stadium

An intriguing Q-Clash awaits us on Saturday evening.

Last weekend’s bye came at the right time for the Suns who fell in a dramatic finish against North Melbourne in Round 11.

Their last two home games have come in Darwin, so this will be a welcomed return to People First Stadium.

Sitting fifth, Gold Coast haven’t fired on all cylinders this season but have still shown enough to position themselves as potential contenders again. This is a game they have to win to be taken seriously in 2026.

At Brisbane, things appear to be falling apart, with the Lions having lost their last three against Geelong, GWS and Fremantle. The Lions have been easily outclassed in each of those encounters, barely firing a shot offensively while giving up huge scores as a defence.

With a building injury list, many think this is the result of multiple premiership pushes and long campaigns in a row. They’d want to arrest this slide here against the Suns. If not, this year could slip away.

While Brisbane has largely dominated Gold Coast across the history of the Q-Clash, the Suns have won two of the last three head-to-head at home. Up against a wounded Lions side, this fresh Gold Coast side coming off the bye simply should have too much firepower based on what we’ve seen from Chris Fagan’s outfit in recent weeks.

While it’s incredibly hard to write this Brisbane side off, they can’t be trusted against quality opposition until they prove that they want to defend again.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

WEST COAST V PORT ADELAIDE

Saturday - 8:15pm AEST - Optus Stadium

After losing to St Kilda by 101 points and handing Richmond their first win for the season just a month ago, it was all doom and gloom for the Eagles.

But it seems the tide is slowly turning in West Coast’s favour with some wins under their belt.

Against a hapless Essendon who parted ways with Brad Scott, the Eagles secured a 30-point victory thanks to a run of eight unanswered goals in the second and third quarters, with their young guns in Rueben Ginbey, Tom McCarthy, Harley Reid and Willem Duursma all starring.

With former Lion Brandon Starcevich playing his first AFL match for the Eagles after proving his match fitness through the WAFL, optimism amongst the fans is starting to grow.

Last week's bye couldn’t have come sooner for Josh Carr’s men.

Prior to Round 12, Port Adelaide had lost their last four matches, with the margin getting bigger by the week, seeing them slip from 11th to 16th.

Having had the week off, the Power will be hopeful that the break is just what the doctor ordered to fix their form slump.

Port will be awaiting the fitness results of Kane Farrell and Jack Lukosius to determine if they’ll feature in the match.

With the Eagles only winning by two points in their Round 3 encounter, both teams will feel this is a winnable game. That match proved to be a tale of two halves, with Port Adelaide starting strong before West Coast clawed back the deficit in the second half. But with the Eagles on the rise and the Power heading in the other direction, West Coast appear likely to secure their third win in their last four matches with a more consistent performance on their home deck.

Prediction: West Coast by 14 points

Nicholas Quinlan

SYDNEY V ST KILDA

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - SCG

Sydney versus St Kilda has been a sneakily elite matchup in their last four games against each other, with either team winning by 14 points or less.

But this won’t be the same.

The Swans are coming off a 114-point shellacking over Richmond, and while St Kilda are a far superior team compared to the Tigers, there is a real possibility that the Swans defeat the Saints by 10 goals here.

The Swans boast the number one percentage in the league at 152.4% and have only lost two games for the entire year – against the third placed Hawthorn and fourth placed Geelong.

On the other hand, St Kilda has failed to defeat any team inside the top 9 this season and are most recently coming off a 52-point smashing at the hands of the Hawks, where they embarrassingly failed to kick a goal in the first half.

The Saints have only managed to defeat teams near or below them on the ladder this season, and that trend will continue here.

Sydney at the SCG is no easy task, and with the Swans’ confidence filled, along with a rested Brodie Gruny, expect St Kilda to take another beating, much like their Hawthorn game.

While the potential inclusions of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Liam Ryan and Mitch Owens will boost St Kilda’s stocks, the Swans are simply a class above here.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 44 points.

Connor Scanlon

ESSENDON V CARLTON

Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - MCG

One of footy’s oldest rivalries returns with a new twist, it’s the battle of the interim coaches at Essendon and Carlton.

Carlton is enjoying the freedom of life under Josh Fraser with three wins on the trot and look a different team, particularly in second halves. Since parting ways with Michael Voss, the Blues have defeated the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and now Geelong in a nail-biting finish.

Perhaps the biggest indicator of a resurgence in form has been from the skipper Patrick Cripps. Cripps had 29 disposals and 2 goals against the Dogs, 32 disposals and a goal against Port Adelaide and 30 disposals with the crucial match winning goal against the Cats. He may not receive the maximum 9 possible Brownlow votes for these performances, but he’ll have to be close.

Whilst Carlton has enjoyed a new coach bounce that’s reaching unparalleled levels of success, Essendon did not get the same effect when they came up short against the Eagles last weekend. With Dean Solomon now at the helm, there was a clear directive to take the game on but as has been the problem all year, Bombers players struggled under pressure from West Coast and the injuries continued to mount with Archie May dislocating his shoulder.

You have to feel a bit for Dean Solomon who has been handed an impossible task with 15 players out injured. In some good news, Sam Durham and Jordan Ridley are expected to return, giving the Bombers some much needed experience.

Expect Carlton to make it four wins in a row and raise the question about whether they may have already found their new coach in Josh Fraser.

Prediction: Carlton by 27 points.

Harry Cumming

COLLINGWOOD V MELBOURNE

Monday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG

Never has there been a bigger King’s Birthday than this one. It’s Big Freeze 12 and the first time the event will take place without Neale Daniher who tackled MND, ‘the beast’, over 13 years with the kind of tenacity that he was known for throughout his career in footy.

Daniher turned Melbourne around from a side languishing at the bottom of the ladder to a preliminary final in just a year, and in 2026, Steven King is looking to follow that blueprint.

However, the Pies have won their last five matches against Melbourne which is a streak that began in the 2023 Elimination Final when Angus Brayshaw was hit in a brutal collision with Brayden Maynard. In the subsequent match, Christian Petracca suffered an incredibly serious injury from a knee to the back from Darcy Moore.

Even back in 2009, then No. 1 pick Jack Watts made his debut and was given a baptism of fire by Collingwood. Watts would go on to get his revenge when he kicked the sealer in 2017. It is safe to say that there’s a fair bit of history between these two teams across the last couple of decades.

This year’s battle shapes to be a season-defining one. The fun and dangerous Dees who have been brought back to Earth over the last fortnight against what critics are describing as the ‘average’ Magpies. If there’s one thing I would never do, it would be writing off Collingwood.

They have proved time and again that the ‘too old, too slow’ tagline just doesn’t apply to modern day footy.

So, grab your Big Freeze beanies and fill out the MCG to show your support for Neale Daniher and enjoy one of footy’s biggest matches on the calendar.

When the final siren goes, one team will walk away with the victory, but the real winner is Neale Daniher who leaves behind an immense legacy that will forever change the course of the lives of those who face MND. Play on, for Neale.

Prediction: Melbourne by 12 points.

Harry Cumming

Byes

• Richmond
• GWS