Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 15, 2026

Another intriguing week of footy awaits.

Things begin with a genuine top-four shaper in Freo v Cats in Perth, while Suns v Hawks on the Gold Coast could also have a big say in the top six.

Saturday's highlight is Adelaide v Melbourne in a battle of the 'best of the rest' outside the top four, while Sunday's St Kilda's v Western Bulldogs clash has immense Wildcard energy.

Brisbane, Essendon, Sydney and West Coast take the week off with the bye.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

FREMANTLE V GEELONG

Thursday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

Everything is coming up purple in season 2026. Wins in all of their last 12, the Fremantle Dockers have had a serious season as they continue to push for their first ever AFL premiership. With a completely clear injury list coming off the bye, the Dockers are in elite nick, carrying good form, an exciting brand and a bucketload of confidence into what presents as a difficult fixture. Their only loss this season came against the Cats in a contest they led by 35 points in Round 1. Caleb Serong returns from injury, while inspirational captain Alex Pearce plays game 150.

Geelong’s season has varied from week-to-week, but as they prove every season, you can never rule out the titans of the competition. Back-to-back losses saw the Cats slip below premiership favouritism; however, a statement win over the Suns at GMHBA was enough to remind the competition of just how good this mob can be. Now, sat in third place with nine wins from 14, the Cats are well set to throw everything at the ladder leaders, with their scheduled bye permitting an extended rest off the back of the trip west. In two major outs for the Cats, they enter this contest without the ill Bailey Smith, while they also remain without the concussed Tom Stewart.

A true September preview between two of the game’s best, Fremantle and Geelong are set to play off in a must-watch contest in WA. For Fremantle, they face the only opponent they’ve failed to beat through 13, with a revenge win surely killing off any doubt in their premiership charge. As for the Cats, confidence from their Round 1 win will go a long way, with a victory here positioning them once again as a premiership favourite. Home deck suits the Dockers, and with the crowd, momentum and healthy injury bill, we like the Dockers to carry on their historical win streak.

Prediction: Fremantle by 7 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

GOLD COAST V HAWTHORN

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - People First Stadium

Things aren’t going great for the Suns who have dropped three on the trot, including a 45-point loss to Geelong last Friday night. After a promising first 10 weeks of the season, Damien Hardwick’s side is right back in the pack in ninth spot with a 7-6 record. Every week is becoming vital for the Suns and this is no different, up against opposition who sit above them and are favoured to win.

The Hawks have had a couple of weeks to stew on their round 13 loss to the Dogs when they went under by six points having led by 27 at half-time. They find themselves sitting fifth with an 8-4-1 record with intentions of forcing their way into the top four. Veteran forward Jack Gunston will miss again with a foot issue, but star key defender Tom Barrass will play after missing the last four games with a hamstring injury. A massive game for Sam Mitchell’s men.

People First Stadium was a fortress for the Suns who won four on the trot at the venue before losing to the Lions in round 13. It’s a ground where the Hawks have lost by 53 points (round 5, 2024) and 67 points (round 15, 2023) in their last two attempts. On current form it’s hard to tip the Suns who have been smacked at clearance and contested possession the past two weeks. But they need this one badly and no doubt Dimma has made his voice heard during the week.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 8 points.

Andrew Slevison

ADELAIDE V MELBOURNE

Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Riding a wave of momentum that sees the Crows go 5-1 in the last six with the only loss coming to Hawthorn in Tasmania is very enticing reading. Jordan Dawson has put this side on his back and his teammates are following as he plays his way into All-Australian captaincy contention.

Add to this the return of Izak Rankine with much less pressure on him than previous returns and a genuine tilt at top four footy is on the line.

Injuries to Brody Mihocek and Harrison Petty in recent weeks has stripped some size for the Demons. Coming up against a side who has conceded the second least points against this season, they will have to adjust the way they enter their 50.

Despite some recent wins, this is a much steeper test and will show where Steven King’s men are really at; especially away from Melbourne where they have a 0-4 record in 2026. A return to Adelaide Oval, where they lost to Essendon by 45 points in Gather Round, would surely inspire some form of response.

This is an intriguing contest with the Demons over-performing pre-season expectations, while the Crows have just found their groove. Melbourne will be throwing everything at this one with the bye awaiting next round while the Crows have turned their sights to the run home and will be full guns blazing in front of a roaring Adelaide crowd.

Kysaiah Pickett v Jordan Dawson is mouth-watering and worth the price of entry alone as both look to drag their team to a pivotal win. This is an eight-point game if ever there’s been one; the Demons could go two games clear of Adelaide with a win and Adelaide go above Melbourne with a win.

Throw the ball up already!

Prediction: Adelaide by 17 points.

Ethan Clark

GWS V CARLTON

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium

This is an enormous game in terms of both side’s chances to qualify for the Wildcard Round. The Blues sit in 14th with five wins next to their name, while the Giants are currently just missing out on a Wildcard spot on percentage.

Even more interestingly, both these teams have hit fine form in recent weeks.

Since Michael Voss departed, the Blues have gone 4-0 with interim coach Josh Fraser turning the tide on Carlton’s season, while the Giants recently demolished reigning premiers Brisbane by 78 points, and the fourth-placed Melbourne by 49 points, before narrowly losing to St Kilda last week.

However, while form is on both sides of the matchup here, inconsistency does plague the Blues and Giants. In the Blues’ most recent game, they barely defeated the cellar-dwelling Bombers by five points, and GWS fell at the hands of West Coast a month ago.

This will be a tight matchup, and ENGIE Stadium will absolutely help the Giants here, but Carlton are an entirely different team to the side they were at the start of the season. Skipper Patrick Cripps is back to his dominant best, and their second-half fadeouts don’t seem to be a factor anymore. In fact, three of Carlton's victories under Fraser they have been trailing at half-time.

The Giants definitely have what it takes to knock the Blues off, especially thanks to the home ground advantage, but Carlton have shown little signs of slowing down under Fraser. Expect Carlton to move to 5-0 under their interim coach.

Prediction: Carlton by 13 points.

Connor Scanlon

COLLINGWOOD V PORT ADELAIDE

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG

Collingwood have the wood over Port Adelaide.

The Magpies have won their last five against the Power, with their last three at the MCG coming by at least 42 points.

In those games, the Magpies have scored at will, and they’ll be desperate to get into some kind of goalkicking form again here.

It won’t be as easy this time for the Pies though as they battle with significant injuries. In saying that, the Power also have a raft of key outs with the likes of Connor Rozee, Miles Bergman and Sam Powell-Pepper out.

Both teams have also been the victim of failing to get over the line in close games in 2026. The Magpies have a draw and four losses in single digits. Even more stunningly, the Power have five losses by three or fewer points.

If both the Power and Pies had even won a few of those games, this matchup would be looking very different.

Overall, you’ve got to give the Power a real chance, but it’s just too hard to pick against the Magpies at home against a team that’s below them on the ladder.

Don’t expect it to be easy though… Nick Daicos v Zak Butters and Jordan De Goey v Jason Horne-Francis could decide it.

Prediction: Collingwood by 21 points.

Lachlan Geleit

RICHMOND V NORTH MELBOURNE

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - MCG

In a round of blockbuster clashes that will have significant ramifications on ladder positions, this fixture might fly under the radar. But don’t be fooled by the positions of these two teams, there is still plenty to play for, particularly for the Kangaroos.

Richmond and North Melbourne return to their home state after a financially incentivised trip to Tasmania and Western Australia respectively. Having been humbled in Bunbury by Fremantle, the Roos turned it around against West Coast…just. Whilst it was anything but convincing, the win put North Melbourne 12th on the ladder and within striking distance of a wildcard spot. In fact, they sit outside the top 10 on percentage with the same number of wins as St Kilda and a game in hand.

After Richmond, the Roos face Essendon, Port Adelaide and Collingwood which are all winnable games on paper, but it depends on which team shows up to the match. The Tigers will be no easy-beats at the ‘G and challenged the reigning premiers last week for much of the game. Richmond will be bolstered with the likely return of Toby Nankervis as well as Taj Hotton who returned successfully via the VFL last week. North Melbourne will be without Paul Curtis following his suspension being upheld at the tribunal but will be hoping that Riley Hardeman and Finn O’Sullivan can pass concussion tests to be available.

The Roos have won five of their last six matches against Richmond and should be able to achieve back-to-back wins, placing them firmly in the race for a wildcard spot.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 15 points.

Harry Cumming

ST KILDA V WESTERN BULLDOGS

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

This clash looms as a genuine toss of the coin and will highlight exactly where these teams are at heading into the back half of the season. The Saints were able to back up their strong (albeit losing) performance against the Swans with a gutsy victory against a Giants side who were coming off some big scalps of their own. Liam Ryan has reminded the competition of his capabilities with a scintillating 6.2 against the Giants and will have to be a consideration for the Bulldogs on how to quell his influence.

Meanwhile the Dogs remain one of the harder teams in the competition to get a read on. Three strong wins in a row against Melbourne, Collingwood and Hawthorn were seemingly undone by a spirited Adelaide Crows side. The Bulldogs had 3 more inside 50’s than Adelaide but lost by nearly 10 goals. Out of their 53 inside 50s, the Dogs only managed 3 marks whilst Adelaide had 13 of their own. A telling stat that highlights a forward line struggling to have serious impact on the scoreboard.

It might lead to Beveridge getting experimental with some positional changes. Will we see more of the Bont up forward? Does Aaron Naughton come higher up the ground? This all remains to be seen but one thing is for certain, there is a Sam Darcy sized hole up forward.

The Dogs have enjoyed a St Kilda matchup at Marvel, winning five of their last six matches under the roof. Tom Liberatore is a potential inclusion alongside Laitham Vandermeer which could just prove the difference.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 8 points.

Harry Cumming

Byes

• Brisbane
• Essendon
• Sydney
• West Coast