McGregor vs Holloway: UFC 329 bets and analysis (12/07)

The Mac is back!

After five long years Conor McGregor makes his highly anticipated return to the Octagon and he will once again face off against Max Holloway - a rematch 13 years in the making.

The event is taking place at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas this weekend and the card is being headlined by Conor McGregor versus Max Holloway.

The main card consists of five fights and will kick off at 11:15am AEST on Sunday morning.

See the full analysis of the UFC 329 main card below:

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway (Main event)

Odds:
Conor McGregor - $2.84
Max Holloway - $1.43

Analysis:
This is one of the most fascinating fights of the year, largely because nobody truly knows what version of Conor McGregor will show up.

McGregor returns to the Octagon for the first time in five years after suffering a gruesome leg break against Dustin Poirier. It is important to remember that McGregor hasn't consistently fought in a decade, and the prime of the Irishman was in 2016 when he became double-champ. Between injury, recovery, business ventures and personal time away, there are significant questions surrounding his current level.

Max Holloway presents an incredibly difficult challenge. Holloway remains one of the best strikers in MMA, combining elite volume, technical boxing and genuine power. While his durability is not quite what it once was, he is still firmly in the prime of his career and continues to compete at an elite level.

However, this fight is taking place at welterweight, a division Holloway has never competed in before, adding another layer of uncertainty to this rematch.

The early rounds are where McGregor will be most dangerous. His precision, timing and knockout power could cause Holloway serious problems if he starts fast. But as the fight progresses, Holloway’s advantages will begin to grow. His pace, output and ability to maintain pressure over five rounds should become increasingly important against a fighter returning from such a lengthy absence.

If Holloway can survive the dangerous two opening rounds, he should be able to steadily take control of the contest and pull away as the fight plays out.

Prediction:
Max Holloway to win.

Bet:
Max Holloway to win.

Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett (Co-main)

Odds:
Benoit Saint-Denis - $1.65
Paddy Pimblett - $2.25

Analysis:
This fight has all the ingredients to be an absolute war!

Both Benoit Saint-Denis and Paddy Pimblett are aggressive fighters who thrive in chaos and refuse to back down from a firefight. Neither man is interested in fighting cautiously, which should create a high-paced and violent contest from the opening punch.

Saint-Denis is arguably the more complete mixed martial artist. He possesses dangerous knockout power but is at his best when using his grappling, where his takedowns and top control can completely overwhelm opponents. However, he has shown vulnerabilities when forced onto his back and controlled by strong grapplers.

Pimblett is also a highly-skilled MMA fighter with a strong jiu-jitsu base, but in recent performances he has become increasingly comfortable keeping fights on the feet. He proved against current champion Justin Gaethje that he belongs among elite competition, showing remarkable toughness and durability throughout that contest.

Stylistically, this looks like a striking battle. While Saint-Denis has excellent offensive wrestling, Pimblett possesses strong takedown defence, but his own takedown offence is sub-par. That should result in long periods of striking exchanges.

The biggest story of this matchup is the defensive vulnerabilities both men possess. Saint-Denis constantly marches forward at a high pace, which leaves opportunities for opponents to land clean counters. Pimblett, meanwhile, often leaves his chin in the air when throwing punches, similarly allowing counters to regularly hit him.

This feels like a collision course between two fighters who are willing to absorb damage in order to inflict it. The fighter who lands first may ultimately decide the outcome.

While Saint-Denis enters on a four-fight winning streak, those matchups have suited his style extremely well. Pimblett's recent performance against Gaethje, despite ending in defeat, showcased attributes that could translate effectively against Saint-Denis. Given Saint-Denis' past knockout loss to Dustin Poirier and the similarities in how these fights could unfold, Pimblett appears to have genuine upset potential.

This fight will possess violence from start to finish, where Pimblett may be able to find the decisive shot.

Prediction:
Paddy Pimblett to win.

Bet:
Paddy Pimblett to win by KO/TKO.
Paddy Pimblett to win by KO/TKO or Submission.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista

Odds:
Cory Sandhagen - $1.71
Mario Bautista - $2.14

Analysis:
This rematch comes several years after their first meeting in 2019, a fight that saw Cory Sandhagen clearly dominate Mario Bautista during Bautista's UFC debut.

Bautista has improved enormously since that contest and has developed into one of the most relentless fighters in the division. He pushes a tremendous pace, constantly moves forward and combines high-volume striking with effective cage wrestling. His style shares similarities with former champion Merab Dvalishvili, particularly in the way he pressures opponents and forces them to work every second of the fight.

Sandhagen, however, remains one of the most intelligent and technically sound fighters at bantamweight. His ability to control distance is among the best in the sport, using footwork, leg kicks and smart shot selection to frustrate opponents. He also possesses strong takedown defence and a very high fight IQ.

The contrast in styles should make for a fascinating matchup. Bautista will likely spend the fight driving forward, mixing strikes with cage wrestling and forcing a high pace. Sandhagen, meanwhile, will look to maintain range, pick his shots and accumulate damage from the outside.

This should be a competitive fight throughout, but Sandhagen's ability to manage distance and neutralise pressure has already proven successful against Bautista once before.

Expect a close contest, but Sandhagen's experience and technical advantages should help him edge out a victory.

Prediction:
Cory Sandhagen to win.

Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

Odds:
Brandon Royval - $2.79
Lone'er Kavanagh - $1.45

Analysis:
This is a massive opportunity for Lone’er Kavanagh, but it is also comfortably the toughest test of his career.

Kavanagh is an incredibly talented prospect who possesses elite kickboxing skills and excellent grappling credentials. His footwork, shot selection, accuracy and fight IQ are all outstanding, and there is every reason to believe he will eventually become a Top-5 flyweight.

However, there are aspects of his style that could create problems here. Kavanagh often operates from the centre of the Octagon, preferring not to constantly push forward or fight at a high output. Against many opponents, that works well, but against Brandon Royval, it may not.

Royval thrives in high-volume fights. He has exceptional cardio, excellent range management and constantly pressures opponents with activity. While his recent record may not look ideal, context is important. His last two defeats came against the current champion Joshua Van and Manel Kape, who is arguably next in line for a title shot. Also, his only other UFC losses have come against elite names such as Brandon Moreno in his prime and Alexandre Pantoja.

Royval has consistently competed against world-class opposition, and that level of experience should not be underestimated.

Kavanagh has the technical ability to win moments throughout the fight, but Royval's pace and activity could make it difficult for Kavanagh to establish rhythm over three rounds. As a sizeable underdog, Royval presents excellent value in a matchup that appears much closer than the odds suggest.

Expect Royval's experience and volume to prove decisive on the scorecards.

Prediction:
Brandon Royval to win.

Bet:
Brandon Royval to win by Points.

Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!

King Green vs. Terrance McKinney

Odds:
King Green - $2.13
Terrance McKinney - $1.72

Analysis:
If there is one fight on the card that feels destined for a Round 1 finish, it is this one.

Terrance McKinney fights with one objective: get the finish before the opponent can get him. Nearly his entire professional career has been built on explosive starts, and very few of his fights make it beyond the opening round. McKinney storms forward immediately, throwing with bad intentions and taking enormous risks in pursuit of an early stoppage.

The problem is that those same risks often leave him vulnerable. His all-action style means he is just as likely to be finished as he is to secure the finish himself.

Standing across from him is veteran King Green, one of the most experienced fighters on the roster. Despite being 39 years old, Green still possesses excellent speed, cardio and slick striking. However, his tendency to keep his hands low has always left opportunities for opponents to hurt him.

That stylistic combination is why this fight feels so explosive. McKinney charges forward looking for a knockout, while Green regularly leaves openings that can be capitalised on. At the same time, Green is more than capable of catching McKinney as he rushes in recklessly.

Everything points toward an early finish. Unless McKinney unexpectedly chooses a measured approach, this fight should turn into a wild exchange almost immediately.

This bout should be very short and exciting, with McKinney's aggression ultimately paying off before the fight has a chance to settle down.

Prediction:
Terrance McKinney to win.

Bet:
Terrance McKinney to win by KO/TKO in Round 1.
Fight to end by KO/TKO in Round 1.

$100 Staking Plan

$50 SAME GAME MULTI @ $2.05 (returns $102.50)
Max Holloway to win
Over 1.5 Rounds

$25 PROP @ $4.90 (returns $122.50)
Brandon Royval to win by Points

$25 PROP @ $5.80 (returns $145)
Paddy Pimblett to win by KO/TKO

Scanlon's Special

Three-leg WIN multi @ 8.97

Leg 1 - Brandon Royval to win
Leg 2 - Paddy Pimblett to win
Leg 3 - Max Holloway to win

Mega Multi

Four-leg multi @ $49.04

Leg 1 - King Green vs Terrence McKinney to end by KO/TKO inside Round 1
Leg 2 - Brandon Royval to win by Points
Leg 3 - Paddy Pimblett to win by KO/TKO or Submission
Leg 4 - Max Holloway to win

Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!

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