Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 20, 2026

Oooohhhh, it’s starting to get spicy.

Round 20 is here and we have some ripping fixtures to assess.

Thursday night is a beauty with Adelaide (5th), on a three-game winning run, hosting Collingwood (8th) in eighth and on the back of five straight wins.

Friday we get a double-header in the form of Melbourne (6th) v Geelong (9th) at the MCG and the Derby between Fremantle and West Coast in Perth.

The Sydney derby between the Giants and Swans headlines Saturday’s slate before Brisbane hosts Port Adelaide and North takes on the Saints on Sunday.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

ADELAIDE V COLLINGWOOD

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

One of the in-form sides of the competition, the Crows have dropped just two games since Round 8. After taking care of the Swans at the SCG last week, last year’s minor premiers are once again considered true contenders, out of the top four only on percentage with both Richmond and Essendon in the coming weeks. They enter tonight without Darcy Fogarty who has been suspended, while Izak Rankine enters in elite form.

After their bye in Round 14, Collingwood’s season looked ominous. Just five wins from 13 games and sat in 13th place, the Pies were struggling for form and were luckless with injury. Since then, Craig McRae’s men are yet to lose a game, firing up into September contention once more. Nick Daicos has been on a tear, while Jordan De Goey and Isaac Quaynor celebrate their 200th and 150th games respectively. A Wildcard spot beckons if their form remains.

This is by far Collingwood’s toughest test since their form flipped. As it stands, the Pies are yet to beat a single team that resides within the current top 10 and fell short against the Crows in their reverse fixture at the MCG earlier this season. What are they made of in 2026? This will answer that question. As for Adelaide, a home crowd behind them in what has become one of the biggest modern-day rivalries will play a role, with Rankine set to face the Pies for the first time since receiving his four-match suspension in 2025. It’s going to be hot, fiery and intense from the start, but we think the hosts will hold on in a thriller.

Prediction: Adelaide by 13 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

MELBOURNE V GEELONG

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG

A brilliant Friday night matchup at the 'G.

Melbourne are continuing to roll in 2026, taking care of results they needed to in the last fortnight against the Tigers and Kangaroos. This will be the Demons’ toughest test since they faced the Hawks in Round 17 in Launceston, a game they prevailed in by 35 points.

Currently sitting sixth, one game ahead of the Bulldogs in seventh, this match is a must-win for Steven King’s side if they’re to bypass Wildcard weekend come September as the challenging pack continues to chase.

Geelong got back onto the winners’ list last Thursday at home against St Kilda, although it came at a cost with Max Holmes going down with a serious ankle injury that could cost him his campaign.

Without their star on-baller and key forward, can the Cats still compete with the best? This clash against a fellow top six contender will say plenty about Geelong’s ability to stay at a high level without all of their talent. It’ll be tough, but never count out this side.

This is just about as close to a 50/50 proposition if you’ll see. Many rate Geelong over Melbourne as a genuine premiership threat, but they may appear a little toothless without two of their best weapons in Holmes and Cameron.

The Demons have also proven formidable at home, winning all nine of their games at the MCG so far in 2026. While this is one of their biggest tasks at the venue yet, that record is just too strong to look past against a weakened opposition outfit.

Prediction: Melbourne by 10 points.

Lachlan Geleit

FREMANTLE V WEST COAST

Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

With five games left in the home and away season, it’s now time for Fremantle to test their form. This Derby comes at the perfect time to ensure motivation is high and their form continues rolling with finals looming. A lackadaisical first half was overcome last week against an undermanned Port Adelaide and Justin Longmuir would be hoping for a more compelling display on Friday night.

Premiership favouritism is sitting very comfortable with these Dockers, and this week should be no different.

Having lost their past six games, you would think Andrew McQualter’s men would be fading out of this season, but solid performances against the likes of Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs in recent weeks suggest a scalp could be coming soon for the Eagles. Co-captain Liam Baker will be missed for such a crucial clash, and it will be interesting to see how they cover for the instrumental playmaker and his leadership.

It’s an important outing for the Eagles and could be defining if they can rally against the best team in the league, but it may be too much to ask.

This Western Derby, on paper, wouldn’t be in the top echelons of its storied history. However, that history has seen the last 10 clashes between these sides average an incredible 45.1 points, of which Fremantle have won nine. If that is anything to go by, it should be a familiar story for the Dockers who have arguably never been stronger going into a Derby before.

West Coast is building on recent seasons, undoubtedly, but this would surprise if they can topple a Fremantle side that seemingly always finds destructive motivation in these clashes of late.

Prediction: Fremantle by 41 points.

Ethan Clark

CARLTON V GOLD COAST

Saturday - 1:05pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

After seven straight wins, the Blues have dropped two in a row to drop back down to earth with a thud. But the Josh Fraser bubble was always going to burst at some stage so it’s no great surprise. They were in the contest all night against Collingwood last weekend but were just unable to bridge the gap. Now they get a Suns team whose season is in free-fall, giving the Blues a great chance to keep their wildcard hopes alive.

A season that started so full of promise has fallen away in dramatic fashion for Damien Hardwick’s Gold Coast. The nine-point defeat to the Western Bulldogs in Round 19 was an eighth consecutive defeat which has the Suns sitting only a game above the bottom four. That is poles apart to when they sat in the top four after Round 10. How can Dimma turn things around? If they don’t beat the Blues then surely it’s curtains for season 2026.

Two months ago this fixture would have seemed a layup for the Suns. But oh how times have changed. They enter this in disarray having seen the bottom fall out of their campaign. They’ve also only beaten the Blues just once in their past four meetings – last year in Round 22 by 19 points at Marvel. A sane person simply cannot tip the Suns right now. The Blues are showing more at this point and will enter as favourites, and rightly so.

Prediction: Carlton by 10 points.

Andrew Slevison

HAWTHORN V ESSENDON

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG

Essendon are out of last place!

The Bombers fought tooth and nail against the Giants to barely scrape across the line by three points last Sunday. In fact, they had only won just one of their previous 30 games before defeating GWS, and now they sit at 17th on the ladder – one spot above Richmond.

But that win may be their last moment of joy for the rest of the season. In their final five games of the year, they will face Hawthorn this weekend, followed by Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney and Port Adelaide.

Out of those five games, Hawthorn will likely be their toughest challenge.

Sitting at third on the ladder with 12 wins from 18 games, the Hawks should absolutely win this matchup at the MCG, especially considering they just smacked Carlton and Richmond by 64 points and 70 points respectively.

Even more alarmingly for Essendon, they have lost each of their last 18 away matches, and this game seems like a mammoth task to break that streak.

With the Hawks announcing a one-year contract extension for 34-year-old Jack Gunston during the week, expect the key forward to celebrate with a bag against the Bombers.

Don’t overthink this one. Hawthorn should win this game and win comfortably.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 54 points.

Connor Scanlon

GWS V SYDNEY

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium

Having won back-to-back games for only the second time this season, the Giants' season appeared to be building form at the back end of the season as they have done in their three previous years under Adam Kingsley.

However, 2026 is proving to be a different story.

With a golden opportunity to get back into the top 10, the Giants were unable to seize the moment, handing Essendon its first win under Dean Solomon as their consistently inconsistent form came out once again. It could be a game that GWS fans are rueing at season’s end should they be unable to make finals for the first time under Kingsley.  

And with an all-important clash against their big brother in the Swans, the Giants are without captain Toby Greene for the 33rd edition of the Sydney Derby, having been ruled out with a quad strain.

Is 2026 proving to be a case of déjà vu for Sydney?

Well, after a strong start to the season, the Swans are once again struggling towards the second half, seeing a near repeat of their 2024 season.

Just like 2024, the Swans experienced their second loss of the season in Round 16 and have proceeded to lose another two in the following three weeks, leaving doubts about their ability to be premiership contenders.

And with last week’s 16-point loss to the Crows also being the first time they’ve lost at the SCG this season, Sydney has been chased down by the teams behind them, seeing 2nd spot up for grabs.

To add to their woes, Harry Cunningham will not feature as he remains in concussion protocols following Darcy Fogarty’s swinging arm in Friday night's match.

With both teams coming off a loss, it merely adds the cherry on top of what is already an important clash for both sides. It would be on brand for GWS to pull off an upset victory following last week’s loss to Essendon, which would see them beat every side in the top four currently. Sydney does have the wood over their little brother, having won six of the last seven derbies, and it's hard to see that success not continuing to roll in Saturday’s clash as they bounce back into their form.

Prediction: Sydney by 15 points

Nicholas Quinlan

WESTERN BULLDOGS V RICHMOND

Saturday - 7:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

The Bulldogs ground out their seventh single-digit win of the season in beating Gold Coast by nine points last weekend.

That result has kept Luke Beveridge’s Doggies right in the finals mix in seventh spot, just a game and percentage out of the six, and three games clear of those outside of the wildcard slots.

Marcus Bontempelli was inspirational in that victory while Bailey Williams, Matt Kennedy and Tim English all returned to form.

They need to keep banking wins if they want to play in September and they have a reasonable run home, so they’ll be intent on forcing their way into the top six.

Adem Yze’s Tigers are struggling to keep up at the moment.

They were blown off the MCG by Hawthorn last week, losing by 70 points, which was their seventh defeat in a row and 16th for the season.

They’re scored the fewest points in the competition, have conceded the most and have returned to the foot of the ladder.

The Tigers have lost their last four to the Dogs - the past three by an average of 75 points.

Under the lid against inferior opposition is usually a very tasty recipe for the at times ravenous hounds who should put this one away without too much trouble.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 45 points.

Andrew Slevison

BRISBANE V PORT ADELAIDE

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Gabba

Can the Power breach the Gabba fortress or will the Lions make it seven wins in a row?

Port Adelaide were brave at home against the highly touted Fremantle last week and showed that it isn’t ‘Zak Butters or bust’ at Alberton. Joe Richards was electric with 31 disposals and a goal, giving his side real hope until Fremantle ultimately proved too strong. However, someone else will have to step up this week as Richards has been ruled out with a finger injury.

If the Power are to be a chance on Sunday afternoon, they’re going to need to be ready for a Lions outfit that is humming. Chris Fagan might’ve preferred his side to be a little more ruthless against the 16th placed West Coast outfit, but in the end Brisbane clicked into gear and cruised to a comfortable 24-point victory.

The Lions sit 4th, just 0.6 percent above Adelaide, proving just how crucial percentage will be to determine the top four this season. Not only will Brisbane want a win, but they’ll also want to improve their chances of boosting their percentage and making a real push for top two.

Brisbane has largely dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 8 out of the last nine games against Port Adelaide. The Lions will likely welcome back Bruce Reville and Dayne Zorko whilst Oscar Allen is also a chance to return. Jason Horne-Francis and Mitch Georgiades are massive inclusions for the Power.

This could be a tussle early on but expect Brisbane to continue their strong vein of form.

Prediction: Brisbane by 31 points.

Harry Cumming

NORTH MELBOURNE V ST KILDA

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

Is it too big a call to say it’s season over for the loser of this one?

Maybe not just yet… but the loser will be needing to make up ground with a limited runway left for the home and away season. North Melbourne sit at the bottom of the logjam of teams that are 8-10 due to their poor percentage of 90.9. It does leave them vulnerable and means that they must keep winning to stay in the Wildcard race.

The Roos got off to a hot start against Melbourne last week, led by some early goals from Charlie Spargo and Paul Curtis. It was a familiar tale for North fans though, with the Roos fading as the game went on and struggling to transition the ball out of their defence.

Ross Lyon put the competition on notice last week following the Saints’ disappointing performance against Geelong, declaring that Max King was a chance to return. It is in fact looking like the injury-beleaguered forward will be back, but will it be enough to turn the tide for St Kilda? Despite their loss, they remained 10th as other teams around them also lost their matches. Having won their last six in a row against North Melbourne this is a genuine chance for the Saints to solidify their position.

There is everything to play for in the primetime Sunday slot, just as AFL House would have hoped when they introduced the Wildcard Round this season.

Prediction: St Kilda by 11 points.

Harry Cumming