Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 24, 2026

The final home and away round of 2026 is upon us. Just like that.

Thursday night kicks off with St Kilda v Gold Coast from Marvel before Collingwood hosts Brisbane in an intriguing Friday night fixture at the MCG.

Carlton hosts minor premiers Fremantle in Josh Fraser’s first game as full-time Blues coach before the Demons meet the Doggies in another top fixture at the ‘G.

Three games on Sunday wrapping up with West Coast v Hawthorn in Perth.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

ST KILDA V GOLD COAST

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

St Kilda’s finals hopes are officially dead, and it’s hard to commend the Saints for much this season. After their almighty shopping spree, Ross Lyon’s Saints weren’t able to extract results, winning just 10 of their 22 matches en route to a maximum 11th placed finish. It hasn’t all been on-field failure, having copped the brute of some serious injury troubles over the season. Much of their current injury report reflects as such, with superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, All-Australian Jack Sinclair, recruit Sam Flanders and key forward Max King all ruled out. The Saints still have plenty to play for, with veteran Brad Hill celebrating an incredible 300 games.

Very few have been more disappointing in recent seasons than the Suns in 2026. Entering with extreme ambitions, many suspected that the Suns would elevate from their first ever finals win in 2025, predicting a potential top four berth and a rise to true premiership contention. Unfortunately, their fate was quite the opposite. With just one win from their last 12, the Suns are sat in a measly 14th place, three and a half games behind the top 10 after an incredibly underwhelming season under Damien Hardwick. Prized recruit Christian Petracca has failed to fire in the second half of the year and will miss tonight with a foot concern, alongside full back Sam Collins.

Never has a game meant less… barring Brad Hill’s incredible 300-game milestone. Both the Suns and the Saints should have been pushing September football, however, as it stands, neither side has anything to play for. So, which side will want to end their season on winning ways? With a number of stars set to miss, tonight’s clash presents an opportunity for several of St Kilda’s fringe talents to step up and perform, and with the added weight of their veteran’s milestone and the home ground advantage, we think the Saints claim victory to end 2026.

Prediction: St Kilda by 17 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

COLLINGWOOD V BRISBANE

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG

This would have been a blockbuster in just about any other round...

Collingwood have locked in a Wildcard finals position after a strong finish to the season which has seen them only lose one of their last nine games. Nick Daicos is on fire and is clearly the best player in the competition, it feels like the Magpies will go as far as he takes them in 2026 with some other stars out injured.

Collingwood is full of belief, but with their fate already secured as a team that will finish 8th or 9th, this game doesn’t hold much weight.

Their opponent Brisbane are still fighting for a top four spot, entering Round 24 in 3rd, ahead of both Hawthorn and Melbourne on percentage. While a win here would see them lock in the double-chance, they’d want to do so somewhat convincingly to keep hold of 3rd given the Hawks face the Eagles. The Lions have only lost one of their last 10 ahead of a tilt at back-to-back-to-back flags. This might be their last chance to perform at the ‘G ahead of what could await late next month.

Given that this game isn’t a must-win for Collingwood, it’s hard to see them upsetting a Brisbane side that needs a victory to keep hold of their top four spot. Nick Daicos is the man who could ruin things for the Lions if he goes nuclear, but if the Magpies choose to manage some stars, they shouldn’t hold a candle to this Brisbane outfit. Expect Chris Fagan’s side to have a bit too much firepower given the circumstances.

Prediction: Brisbane by 20 points.

Lachlan Geleit

CARLTON V FREMANTLE

Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

Marvel Stadium has become a bit of a new fortress for Carlton, having not lost there since Round 8 when Michael Voss was in charge. Their new high tempo gameplan is posing a huge scoring threat at the venue and will have to be at its best today against the most formidable opponent in the league.

Will Hayward (ankle) misses in a bid to return for Wildcard Round and will leave a hole in the forward line that he has filled with aplomb of late. A win here would send them into the finals with genuine belief they can cause damage with their new permanent senior coach Josh Fraser at the helm.

With a week off incoming, Fremantle will be happy to go into this one with a near full strength line-up for one more practice run ahead of their premiership tilt. The Dockers won their only trip to Marvel Stadium earlier this season against the Western Bulldogs and will have yet another chance to test their abilities travelling to Melbourne for a Saturday day game.

If all goes to plan, this will be their last trip to the state until Grand Final day. The Dockers will have to be on here to ensure a result to send them into finals brimming with confidence.

This will be a ripping contest between two of the form teams of the comp and for neutrals, it could only have been made better if it was do or die for Carlton. Regardless, all eyes will be glued to this one to see if Carlton can stack it up with the best, just like they did when they destroyed Brisbane a few weeks ago.

Fraser’s Fortress will be a significant challenge for the premiership favourites, and this shapes as one of the games of the round.

Prediction: Fremantle by 11 points.

Ethan Clark

MELBOURNE V WESTERN BULLDOGS

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG

The Demons smashed the Power by 76 points in Adelaide last weekend with some huge individual performances. Bayely Fritsch and Kade Chandler kicked four goals each and Jack Steele was commanding in midfield. They now return to the MCG where they’ve been so damaging under Steven King in 2026. The Dees lose leading goal kicker Jacob Van Rooyen to suspension, which hurts, but there are multiple avenues to goal with six players who have kicked 20 or more.

The Doggies were still chasing an unlikely top-six spot prior to last weekend, but those very slim hopes were dashed by a draw with Carlton. They occupy ninth position with a Wildcard slot locked in, but their knockout opponent is not yet known. That will be dependent on round 24 results with movement possible between the Dogs, eighth-placed Collingwood and the Blues in 10th. A win over the Dees would lock in the Pies. A loss could see them travel to Adelaide if the Blues beat Freo.

The Demons enter this in winning form with three on the trot, whereas the Dogs haven’t saluted since beating the lowly Tigers in Round 20. Melbourne has made the MCG a fortress under King in 2026, winning 10 of 11 at the iconic venue. The Dees haven’t beaten the Dogs in their last three meetings, however, the past two have been by three points and six.

It’s hard to tip against the Demons at the ‘G in what will likely be a hotly contested affair.

Prediction: Melbourne by 16 points.

Andrew Slevison

GEELONG V RICHMOND

Saturday - 7:45pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium

Geelong enters this final home and away fixture following their great escape against North Melbourne at Marvel last Saturday.

Chris Scott’s side trailed the Roos by 39 points at one stage before kicking 18 goals to 10 after quarter-time to lob by 15 points, maintaining sixth spot in the process.

It was their fifth win on the trot, and they’ll likely get Jeremy Cameron and Sam De Koning back for the home clash with Richmond which further strengthens their side.

There was a fair bit at stake for the Tigers against St Kilda last week with three-time premiership players Dion Prestia and Nathan Broad bowing out and Tom Lynch playing his 250th.

But they didn’t play like it, cast aside by 49 points in a limp, listless and lacklustre display.

That’s why there are fears that this one could blow out with even less to play for and some senior players now absent.

The only aspect of consequence here is where the Cats finish the regular season on the ladder.

A victory could catapult them into the top four, but that seems unlikely given Brisbane (v Collingwood), Hawthorn (v West Coast) and Melbourne (v Bulldogs) above them are all favoured to win.

A defeat could see them drop in the Wildcard position (provided the Crows beat GWS), but that also seems unlikely given the Cattery has not been a happy hunting ground for the Tigs. They last won down the highway in 2006, losing their past seven at the venue.

Geelong has a Richie Benaud feel about it, scoring 2222 points in 22 games at an average of 101 as third highest scoring team in the league. The Tigers have scored the fewest points, 1407 at 63.9, and have conceded the second most, 2240 at 101.8.

The Tigers have only beaten the Cats once in seven attempts since the 2020 Grand Final, losing their last three by 30, 72 and 39 points.

If the Cats are in the mood then there is a chance this could get ugly.

Prediction: Geelong by 50 points.

Andrew Slevison

ADELAIDE V GWS

Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Despite GWS securing a 54-point victory over the Eagles, the Giants’ hopes for a fourth consecutive finals appearance have been put to bed following Carlton drawing with the Western Bulldogs. With an injury list longer than the one used at the North Pole, the club has struggled to find form. But with losses to Essendon and West Coast (in Round 10), the Giants, with the extension of the finals system, will be wondering what could have been. GWS will look to finish the season on a high as they celebrate Jake Stringer’s 250th AFL game and Ryan Angwin's 50th game.

With their loss to the Dockers, the Crows have dipped out of the top six for the first time since Round 13 and now stare down the possibility of hosting a Wildcard match rather than an elimination final. For their season-defining clash, the Crows will be hopeful of having Wayne Milera and Hugh Bond back for selection, which will be a much-needed boost for the defence after conceding 100+ points for only the second time since Round 7. They also expect Alex Neal-Bullen to return after becoming a dad for the second time. Luke Pedlar is also set to celebrate his 50th AFL game.

While Adelaide has been locked in for finals since the end of Round 21, the Crows will have plenty of motivation to get a strong win and hope results go their way to give themselves the best chance of having a week off before their first clash in finals. Alongside, the potential trio of inclusions in Neal-Bullen, Milera and Bond should see the Crows get the job done.

Prediction: Adelaide by 29 points.

Nicholas Quinlan

ESSENDON V PORT ADELAIDE.

Sunday - 12:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

This is the end of the road for both Essendon and Port Adelaide’s season, and it was by no means a good one for either team.

The Bombers have only won two games this year, coming against Melbourne in Round 5 and the Giants in Round 19. Aside from those two victories it has been a year of misery Essendon fans.

In fact, since Round 17, excluding their victory against GWS, the Bombers have lost to each of their opponents by an average of 70 points – an absolutely insane statistic.

Port Adelaide haven’t been much better though, winning only six games for the season. And similarly to the Bombers, they just simply haven’t been competitive in recent weeks, losing each of their last six games.

Luckily for Port though, champion midfielder Zak Butters may return for his final game at the club before making his free agency decision. If the three-time John Cahill Medallist can return from his ankle injury, his teammates will do everything they can to give Butters the send-off he deserves.

And given the fact that Essendon have lost 24 of their last 25 games in Victoria, Port have every opportunity to win this game.

While Port Adelaide’s injury list is filled to the brim, Josh Carr’s men should be able to get the job done for Butters after eight magnificent seasons at Alberton, if he is fit to play.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 31 points.

Connor Scanlon

SYDNEY V NORTH MELBOURNE

Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

This might be a dead rubber, but North Melbourne can finish its season with a preview of what the competition can expect in 2027.

Currently sitting 13th on the ladder with 9 wins for the season, the Kangaroos have the chance to win 10 games for the first time since 2019. It would also double their total number of wins from the five they recorded last year.

Much has been debated about whether North Melbourne have improved this year but their form over the last fortnight shows that they are no longer a bottom four side. The win against the Bulldogs and tight loss against Geelong proved that they have established a brand of footy under Alastair Clarkson that can challenge teams in the top eight. However, outside of Victoria, North Melbourne are 1-7 for the season and haven’t won at the SCG since 2018.

Sydney stumbled against the Bombers last week after a hot start but managed to recover and win by a comfortable 36 points. The win ensured second spot on the ladder with no chance of moving up or down.

They have had to deal with the sexual assault scandal in Melbourne post the MCG win over the Dons, which has seen Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, James Jordon and Riley Bice suspended for the remainder of the season.

How the Swans bounce back from that is anyone's guess.

Errol Gulden is having a ridiculous run of form and was dominant against Essendon with 47 disposals. It backs up an impressive return to footy since Round 16 with an elite average of 30.5 disposals, 4.1 clearances and 5.2 tackles. Gulden will shape as a massive key to the Swans’ success in September.

Harry Sheezel will miss following the cheekbone injury he sustained last week with Luke McDonald, Bailey Scott and Cooper Harvey all pushing for selection. James Rowbottom faces a fitness test for the Swans as he aims for a return following a hand injury.

The Kangaroos’ form over the last fortnight is compelling, and they’ll be treating this as a final of their own. Can they challenge a Swans side who likely won’t be playing at maximum intensity? They’re a strong chance.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 5 points.

Harry Cumming

WEST COAST V HAWTHORN

Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - Optus Stadium

In the 207th and final match of the 2026 home-and-away season, can West Coast cause one last upset and shake up the top six?

The Eagles have nothing to lose as they bow out of another tough season with just the four wins to date. Meanwhile this clash is a must win for the Hawks.

Last week’s draw against Collingwood threw a spanner in the works of Hawthorn’s September trajectory as they fell back to fourth spot on the ladder being 2.2 percent behind Brisbane. It means that this week, the Hawks could finish as high as third or as low as seventh on the ladder.

A win would guarantee at least 5th spot, but likely fourth spot as they have a significant percentage buffer to Melbourne. A loss could see them playing a Wildcard final next week which would be disastrous for a team that was well placed a fortnight ago to be challenging for a Grand Final.

West Coast has struggled in the back end of the season and are without a win since their five-goal victory over the Bombers. They’ve also lost their last four games against the Hawks. It’s going to be a big summer at Mineral Resources Park as the pressure on Andrew McQualter and his team will start to increase following the club’s fifth season in a row finishing in the bottom four.

This could be a good opportunity for the Hawks to prepare for an away game at Optus Stadium as there is a real chance they face the Dockers in an away Qualifying Final. Sam Mitchell will be looking for a big response from his side as they prepare for a genuine crack at a flag.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 34 points.

Harry Cumming