Trade Bell: Certainties, Maybes and Hail Mary trades

It’s only August 25 but that’s not too early to ring the Trade Bell.

Monday was a big news day on the trade front with Zak Butters and Ben King informing Port Adelaide and Gold Coast respectively that they plan to explore free agency.

So, that has set the scene for a trade update with Sam Edmund who joined Gerard Whateley on SEN’s Whateley to ring the bell.

Edmund outlined three categories at this early stage - Certainties, Maybes and Hail Marys.

The Certainties

Zak Butters
Leaving Port Adelaide

“No surprise that Butters is leaving Port Adelaide. The surprise will present in the club that he’s choosing.

“Collingwood were strung along for a long time before being told in recent days they were officially out.

“So the Dogs, Cats and Tigers remain, and the negotiations now behind the scenes as to what those clubs are prepared to offer because a deal will have to be done.

“There’s every expectation that Port will follow through on their long stated desire to match any offer that comes.

“There’s real intrigue around Zak Butters still to come, but he’s a certainty (to leave).”

Jake Stringer & Jesse Hogan
Both leaving GWS

“Has played his last game at the Giants. An unrestricted free agent who leaves despite having nearly 100 shots at goal this year.

“Because he stretched some friendships up there, and the Giants have seen a chance to reload given other departures.

“That includes Jesse Hogan who is a certainty to go. He was very close to a contract a couple of months ago, it was basically done, they were just haggling over a dollar here and there.

“Then it all broke down. Another victim of the reload. He had battles with injury and the Giants see Aaron Cadman and Max Gruzewski as the future ahead.

“Not a free agent but he’s out of contract at 31.”

Ben King
Leaving Gold Coast, most likely for Hawthorn

“He’s played his last game at the Suns. It’s been a fair old ride up there this year. He was staying, he was going, he was staying, then he wasn’t.

“For family reasons he’s now returning to Victoria. He was in tears after the final game and told Gold Coast yesterday he was leaving.

“He’s a restricted free agent. Now this could change, but the expectation at this stage is that the Suns accept the compo, which is Pick 6 as it stands.

“Now Hawthorn are going to get King unless there's some sort of savage and unexpected twist here.”

The Maybes

Toby Greene
Could leave GWS for Geelong

“He’s 99.9% (according to Josh Jenkins). The only reason we haven't got him in as a certainty is because he hasn't communicated to GWS that he's categorically out yet.

“But at this stage he's a strong, strong maybe and a strong maybe to Geelong.”

Lachie Neale
Could leave Brisbane for Collingwood

“He’s also 99.9% to leave. Everyone connected with this expect it to be so, but he's yet to tell the Lions officially.

“Linked very, very strongly to Collingwood.”

Zach Merrett
Could still leave Essendon

“A maybe, but as close to certain as you can get at the second time of asking.”

Calsher Dear
Could leave Hawthorn

“Dear is a maybe. Squeezed out you'd think, has an offer from the Hawks, hasn't signed it, has met with multiple rival clubs including Melbourne.”

Buku Khamis
Could leave the Bulldogs

“Khamis again. This is history repeating. Carlton are back at the table here and he still hasn't re-signed at the Dogs.”

Zac Bailey
Yet to decide on Brisbane future

“He is probably the big maybe. Brisbane has long been confident / hopeful but we're now at August 25th, still no contract signed at Brisbane so there's an elevated sense of nervousness there at Brisbane.”

Joel Amartey
Weighing up Sydney offer

“The money hasn't been there from Sydney, but it is at Carlton and others. He does want to stay. So this one could potentially drag on for a bit depending on what Sydney do and where they offer a bit more.”

Jordon Butts, Elijah Tsatas, Ollie Hollands, Jake Rogers, Charlie Ballard, Zane Duursma - the list goes on and on and on of Maybes.

The Hail Marys

Dan Houston

“Houston's a Hail Mary. Now, he has been unhappy, he has been unsettled at times at Collingwood.

“That is said to have simmered down now and abated, but that's why he's a Hail Mary, because for whatever reason, it just hasn't quite worked for him.

“The waters have calmed on that front. I'm sure he's there next year, but he's a Hail Mary.”

Tim English

“There are whispers, and there have been which started with Jordan Lewis, the netball piece, which has affected players before, affected clubs before, so a little bit of smoke, but no fire.”

Sean Darcy

“He’s annually a Hail Mary at Fremantle. Has a contract in place clearly, but again has found it hard to get a regular game at Fremantle with Mason Cox coming in and obviously Luke Jackson being potentially an All-Australian.”

Matt Rowell

“I’ve got Matt Rowell down as a Hail Mary. Certainly will be a big top of your conversation next year definitely at Gold Coast.”

Scott Pendlebury

“Can you have Scott Pendlebury as a Hail Mary? I reckon we can. He's in my Hail Mary. Could be at another club. It's a Hail Mary.”

Kai Lohmann

“I’ve got Kai Lohmann as a Hail Mary going forward over the next 18 months or so as well. You'd think, why on earth would you leave Brisbane?

“But there's just a little bit of smoke there and where Kai wants to play his football. Not so much that he’s unhappy, far from it at Brisbane, but where he wants to play.”

Nick Murray

“North Melbourne have red hot interest here.

“And maybe this is a maybe, but a big contract offer from Arden Street. Has played 11 games this year. He's contracted at Adelaide, but does he take a bigger offer, a better offer, and the promise of regular football elsewhere?”