Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Finals Week 1

September has arrived!

Thursday night kicks off with Fremantle v Hawthorn at Optus Stadium before Geelong and Carlton go head-to-head on Friday night at the MCG.

Saturday hosts both of the remaining finals, with Sydney hosting Brisbane and Adelaide hosting the Bulldogs to round off the first week of September action!

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

FREMANTLE v HAWTHORN

Thursday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

Despite a loss in the final round, Fremantle locked up the minor premiership for just the second time in their history, winning 19 of their 23 games including a 14-game win streak. A superb season across the board, the Dockers were anchored by five All-Australians, with 2025 Rising Star and first-time All-Australian Murphy Reid set to return ahead of tonight’s final after missing the final two home and away matches. A loss to the Blues rounded out their campaign, leaving the Dockers a game short of a 20-win season, and they enter their home final celebrating two milestone men.

Hawthorn endured yet another successful season under Sam Mitchell, securing a top four berth for the first time since 2018. Off the back of All-Australian years from premier small forward Nick Watson and explosive back flanker Jarman Impey, the Hawks hit September with a healthy injury bill, as midfielder Will Day prepares for his first ever finals game. The Hawks ended their season on a high note, taking down the Eagles in tough WA conditions – they return to WA once more, this time facing the game’s toughest opposition.

A blockbuster of a final, Freo and the Hawks will leave absolutely nothing up to chance in September’s official opener for 2026. The last time these two sides played was an exact mirror of tonight’s contest; a Thursday night opener at Optus Stadium, the Dockers walked away with a 15-point victory, clawing back from 22 points down in the third term. Jack Gunston kicked six goals, and the Dockers are set to be without defender Brennan Cox, doing them no favours in harnessing the veteran’s threat. It was Wharfie Time that did the damage in a charged final term, and we believe Wharfie Time will ring true once more, with the Dockers edging out a result in a close one.

Prediction: Fremantle by 13 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

GEELONG v CARLTON

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG

What a game we have on our hands. Can Frase-ball go through to the Semis? Or will the Cats hold their nerve?

Geelong finished their season brilliantly, winning six games on the trot to prime themselves for a big September. While they only played two top 10 sides in that period, the Cats will be confident heading into this clash, particularly after receiving some much-needed rest with the pre-finals bye.

But for a team that has played so many finals across the last two decades, this is only their second Elimination Final in that period. They lost both of those in home games at the MCG to lesser-ranked opposition.

As for Carlton, they continued to ride the wave of momentum with their Wildcard Final win over Melbourne last Saturday at the MCG. After going down four goals early, the Blues kicked 10 of the last 13 gaols of the game to storm home comfortable 19-point victors.

Carlton’s defence was the standout in that result, with Jacob Weitering and Harry Dean dominating in the air, they’ll need them to perform again in a big way against the Cats. Does the fairytale continue or end here?

It’s incredibly hard to pick against Carlton who have only lost two of their last 15 games, but this is Geelong we’re talking about. The Cats still loom as a genuine flag threat if they get things right from here on, while it’s hard to see the Blues winning five knockout games in a row.

While Geelong rightly enter as favourites with the rest, the Blues do enjoy playing the Cats, claiming four of the last five head-to-head games between the sides. This could be a beauty.

Prediction: Geelong by 20 points.

Lachlan Geleit

SYDNEY v BRISBANE

Saturday - 3:15pm AEST - SCG

Is there still a second-of-the-ladder quality side under the bonnet when the serious footy starts now? Can the likes of Jesse Dattoli, Jai Serong, Billy Cootee and Caiden Cleary hold down the fort against a behemoth Brisbane? It is easy to write off the Swans heading into September given what they are going through off field, but sometimes galvanisation can come from emotional devastation.

Dean Cox and Callum Mills will be doing all they can to ensure the connection of this group is strong and a tilt at going deep into finals isn’t torpedoed like Chairman Andrew Pridham claimed. If the Bloods culture still exists outside of the five suspended players, then expect it to be on show on Saturday.

Brisbane have been here before having only missed top four twice since 2020. For a back-to-back premier, this is when the motivation returns and the taste of a three-peat comes into the fray. Chris Fagan has a near full-strength list to choose from and has admitted some genuinely in-form players will miss today as a result.

The Lions have a 7-12 record at the SCG and were handed a 44-point loss in Round 1 this year in the same fixture, so they will have to buck the trend of recent years here. Having won ten of their last 11 by an average of 47.6 points, this is a juggernaut that will take a lot of stopping.

Sydney have won five in a row and have only lost five games for the season. Despite being written off from all angles, it will take an implosion for the Swans to go under without a fight. If anyone is to burst the red and white’s season, Brisbane would be no surprise. But until an on-field capitulation eventuates, one can only go off the body of work the Swan have laid down this season and trust that the drive and motivation of their key remaining players; Errol Gulden, Brodie Grundy, Charlie Curnow, Tom McCartin and more, is still alive and well and even stronger than before.

Sydney are capable of an emotional and rousing win at home against the premiership favourites.

Prediction: Sydney by 3 points.

Ethan Clark

ADELAIDE v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Thanks to the Bulldogs’ win over the Demons in Round 24 plus Adelaide’s 56-point victory over GWS, the Crows enjoyed the week off and now get to host the same side in a home final. But with the pressure of last year’s straight-sets exit and the possibility of this being Taylor Walker’s final match, there is plenty on the line for Matthew Nicks and his men as he seeks his first finals win in his time at West Lakes. But this time around, Izak Rankine will feature in his first final series, proving to be a vital addition compared to their 2025 campaign.

Had Tim Membrey’s after the siren kick gone a couple of metres to the left, it would have been curtains for the Bulldogs. But once again, the Cardiac Canines held on for a three-point win, making a claim to being kings of the close finish in 2026, having won eight games by single digits. As a result, the Bulldogs reach a familiar stage. This clash against Adelaide marks the eighth elimination final of Luke Beveridge’s 12-season tenure. Only twice have they progressed into the final six.

With both sides seeking to alleviate concerns around their finals record, there is plenty on the line in this do-or-die clash. Entering their third encounter against one another this season, each team has recorded a victory away from home which should give hope to Bulldogs supporters. But with the visitors ranking in the bottom five for points scored and coming up against the second-best defensive unit in the Crows, it’s hard to see how the red, white and blue can get enough points to win, which should see Adelaide claim their first AFL finals win in nine years.

Prediction: Adelaide by 25 points

Nicholas Quinlan