Who will win and why? Tips & predictions for 2026 Grand Final

The 2026 AFL Grand Final is finally here!

The Fremantle Dockers take on the Brisbane Lions, and the Dockers are tasked with stopping the Lions from completing the three-peat to clinch their maiden premiership.

If the Lions can get the job done, their claim to the best team of the 2020s will be ridiculously strong.

See the tips and predictions from the SEN.com.au digital team below:

The three-peat is now so achievable for the Lions who should salute on the grandest of stages once again.

Their best footy remains the best in the competition and they certainly know how to bring their best on Grand Final day.

Fremantle have won just three of 12 quarters across their three finals and haven’t played their best footy in September. They are entirely capable of better than what they’ve delivered lately.

But the Lions are seasoned, hardened, nicely prepared and know how to win big games.

Their stars are consistent, their X-factor players are more trustworthy than Freo’s and they have a steely resolve that has been on display for the past few seasons.

Buttering up on Zac Bailey for Norm after going agonisingly close last year. Hugh McCluggage also a strong chance.

(If the predicted rain comes, expect the margin to be much less).

Tip: Brisbane by 32 points
Norm Smith: Zac Bailey (BRI)
First Goal: Charlie Cameron (BRI) or Jye Amiss (FRE)
Most Goals: Charlie Cameron (BRI) - 4 goals

Andrew Slevison

Is it finally Fremantle’s time?

They’ve almost fallen at every hurdle this September, but now that they’re here, I have a good feeling about the Dockers.

Brisbane clearly have what it takes to win it all, they’ve proven that across the last two years, but I have some serious doubts on their defence after conceding 141 in the Qualifying Final and 122 in the Preliminary Final.

While they won that Prelim, this surely isn’t a sustainable finals model.

Even though the Dockers may not have quite the same amount of forward firepower than the Lions, their defence is holding up far better… and as the saying goes, defence wins premierships.

If the lights don’t prove too bright, I’m expecting the Dockers to match the Lions around the footy.

Kicking a winning score shouldn’t be too much of an issue… the challenge will be ensuring the Lions don’t.

Luke Jackson the Norm Smith pick, particularly if he continues to hit the scoreboard.

Tip: Fremantle by 20 points
Norm Smith: Luke Jackson (FRE)
First Goal: Logan Morris (BRI)
Most Goals: Josh Treacy (FRE) - 3 goals

Lachlan Geleit

Brisbane know how to win a flag... but the Dockers know how to win a game.

The best fourth-quarter team in the AFL, Fremantle have proved time and time again that if you give them a sniff, they will pounce.

They did it against the Pies in Round 5. The Bulldogs in Round 8. The Hawks in Round 9. The Cats in Round 15. The Swans in Round 18. The Power in Round 19. The Crows in Round 23. The Cats in the Semi Finals, and once again against the Swans in the Preliminary Finals.

They've answered the questions at every hurdle, constantly finding a way to win even when it seems dead and buried.

And after a real wake-up call against the Hawks in their Qualifying Final, their last two victories have proven that the stage is no longer intimidating for this Fremantle side.

Wharfie Time might not be permitted at the 'G, but the Dockers have lived in Wharfie Time all season long.

Unless the Lions break out to an insurmountable lead, Fremantle will hunt them down. That's exactly how I expect this contest to play out.

Tip: Fremantle by 11 points
Norm Smith: Hayden Young (FRE)
First Goal: Charlie Cameron (BRI)
Most Goals: Kai Lohmann (BRI) - 3 goals

Jaiden Sciberras

Will we get the romantic fairytale in Fremantle winning their first AFL flag, or will Brisbane lock their place in footballing immortality with a three-peat?

The Lions are a proven commodity at the Grand Final stage. Out of their preliminary final side, only free agents Sam Draper and Oscar Allen are yet to play on the AFL’s biggest stage.

Compared to Fremantle’s preliminary final side, which only has three players (Mason Cox, Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton), it is a notable difference which could see the Lions get off to a flyer in the opening quarter.

And whilst Fremantle have shown that they can overcome these early leads, the Lions have got too much quality to let the Dockers get in the way of the club’s second three-peat this century.

Tip: Brisbane by 27 points
Norm Smith: Zac Bailey (BRI)
First Goal: Charlie Cameron (BRI)
Most Goals: Logan Morris (BRI) - 4 goals

Nicholas Quinlan

The Lions have been in this position for the last four years. They understand the Grand Final and will not succumb to the pressure of the most important game on the AFL calendar.

In the last two Grand Final’s, Brisbane have demolished both the Cats and Swans by 47 and 60 points, respectively. The Lions know how to perform on this day, and their experience at this time of year will hold them in good stead yet again.

Fremantle have also shown vulnerabilities in the recent month and a half, and once the flood gates open here, it could be yet another Brisbane Grand Final smashing. There are also questions on the Dockers’ mental strength, and against a ruthless Brisbane outfit, that could be a recipe for disaster.

Additionally, the MCG also favours Brisbane in this matchup.

The three-peat is well and truly on for the Lions, and we will all watch in awe at their dominance.

Hugh McCluggage is slowly returning to form after an injured season – watch out for the North Smith – the Clug loves a big game! Will Ashcroft is also gunning for his third Norm Smith, and his playing style is perfect to take out the prestigious award.

Go Lions!

Tip: Brisbane by 52 points
Norm Smith: Hugh McCluggage (BRI)
First Goal: Kai Lohmann (BRI)
Most Goals: Zac Bailey (BRI) - 4 goals

Connor Scanlon

Dynasties are rife this century with Brisbane, Hawthorn and Richmond all staking claims as the most dominant of them all, but a sixth flag in 25 years would put the Lions well clear as the greatest.

It almost seems slightly unfair that Fremantle must bear the brunt of this juggernaut to win their first flag ever; but, my word, it would make their inaugural premiership worthy of huge acclaim.

If that is to happen, their guns must perform on the biggest stage of all when they have only managed to do that in three quarters out of 12 thus far.

Josh Treacy and Murphy Reid would want to put in a finals-best performance while Hayden Young and Caleb Serong would want to stretch their brilliance across a whole game to lift their side over this behemoth Brisbane.

Alas, the MCG holds no fears for the Lions anymore and they are only getting stronger year-on-year. I’m tipping Kai Lohmann to star again and take a Norm Smith medal off Will Ashcroft as the Lions keep Freo at arm’s length.

Tip: Brisbane by 21 points
Norm Smith: Kai Lohmann (BRI)
First goal: Isaiah Dudley (FRE)
Most goals: Kai Lohmann (BRI) - 5 goals

Ethan Clark