The 14 certainties for the rest of Round 11

Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the seven remaining games in Round 11.

North Melbourne versus Port Adelaide

Fisher for 25+ Disposals

The Fish has taken up an important role amongst a young Kangaroo backline.

North Melbourne are beginning to form an identity, playing a fast-paced, turnover based game, putting a large emphasis on run out of the back half.

Zac Fisher has been a major piece in the Roos' ambitions to take the game on, given license to attack the ball and charge up the ground, while also remaining the focal point to commence ball movement out of the back 50.

He enters their clash with Port Adelaide averaging just under 23 disposals per game, however with 30 against St Kilda, 34 against the Suns and 31 against the Bombers in the last three weeks since Harry Sheezel’s move up the ground, Fisher looks poised for another high touch game.

Rioli to kick 3+ goals

Rioli has arguably become Port Adelaide’s most damaging player in 2024.

16 scoring shots for 10 goals in his last four games, including three massive goals in Port’s come-from-behind thriller against the Hawks, Rioli has undeniably hit his best run of form since heading east.

Coming up against North Melbourne, who have conceded the most goals in the AFL this season, Rioli should be near impossible to contain in the front 50.

The last time Rioli came up against North Melbourne was in 2022, kicking four goals for West Coast in a 15-point loss.

With Port Adelaide entering as overwhelming favourites, expect Willie to have his way in Hobart.

Jaiden Sciberras

Carlton versus Gold Coast

Curnow and McKay combine for 5+ goals

If there’s ever a duo you’d tip to kick a collective bag, it’s Curnow and McKay.

The two Coleman Medallists have been on fire throughout 2024, each having kicked over 20 goals, with Curnow looking to be the first to break the 30-goal mark this season.

Facing off against a Suns side that has been far from sound defensively this year, conceding the eighth-most points per game, at least one of the Blues forwards should be in for a big night.

Touk Miller to gather 28+ disposals

Touk Miller must have some sort of vendetta against Carlton.

The star Sun has absolutely torched the Blues throughout his career, averaging a hefty 31.7 disposals the last three times he has suited up against the Baggers.

While 2024 hasn’t been as dominant of a season for Miller as we’ve seen, his 27.4 disposals per game are nothing to scoff at.

With the attention being spread around Gold Coast’s potent midfield, Miller should have plenty of room to do damage at Marvel.

Jack Makeham

Geelong verus GWS Giants

Hawkins’ goals + goal assists to equal at least 2

As much as the Cats will want to snap a three-game losing streak, they’ll be wanting Tom Hawkins to enjoy the day as he breaks Geelong’s games record more.

The 35-year-old has been down on form across the last six weeks and comes into Saturday’s clash off a rest last week.

With a bit more support from his teammates, Hawkins is guaranteed to find the big sticks at least once. But equally, when he’s flying, Hawkins is the most unselfish forward in the game.

He’ll either kick or directly contribute to two goals.

Green to gather at least 25 disposals

There’s no midfield going worse in the competition than Geelong’s come Round 11 and star Giants midfielder Tom Green would be eyeing a fillup.

Outside of the injury-impacted game against Sydney, only once has he fallen below 30 touches in his last four matches.

Green’s strength makes him almost impossible to tag and he had 28 possessions last time he faced the Cats.

GWS will hold no fears about performing at GMHBA Stadium either, with the Giants having won their last three over the Cats at that venue.

Richmond versus Essendon

Martin to have 20+ disposals, kick 1+ goal

Dustin Martin has an excellent Dreamtime record against Essendon.

The two-time Yiooken Award winner has averaged 28.2 disposals and kicked 10 goals in his last 10 appearances on this enormous occasion.

While Martin is not quite what he used to be, he still loves the big stage and in front of a packed MCG we expect him to get busy for the Tigers.

‘Dusty’ should pick up 20 touches and kick a goal in the 2024 edition of Dreamtime at the ‘G.

Wright to kick 2+ goals, take 4+ marks

Peter Wright returned to top form with a haul of four goals while taking nine marks against North Melbourne last weekend.

He’ll take that crisp performance into the Dreamtime clash with the Tigers where he might get an opportunity to have another strong showing.

He has kicked two or more goals in five of six games this season, averaging two majors per game, while also averaging a tick under five marks.

Wright stands at 203cm while Richmond’s tallest defender is Ben Miller at 198cm so the Bombers tall does have an advantage.

We’re expecting the Dons to win comfortably and for Wright to kick at least two goals and take at least four marks at the MCG on Saturday night.

Andrew Slevison

Hawthorn versus Brisbane

Worpel and Newcombe to combine for 45+ disposals and 8+ tackles

The Hawks will need their midfield firing if they are to stand a chance against the Lions.

Worpel started the season in red-hot form and Newcombe has led the way recently in the engine room, with the duo combining for more than eight tackles in seven out of the games so far.

The duo totalled 58 touches in Hawthorn’s upset win in this fixture last year and on a dry deck at Marvel Stadium, both guns should be firing for big performances.

Zorko to have 25+ possessions

At the ripe age of 35, Dayne Zorko has played his way into career best form and nothing seems to be slowing him down.

Averaging 33.7 disposals over the previous three matches, Zorko should be able to emulate this form against a Hawthorn outfit who in previous weeks have allowed opposition half-backs plenty of the ball.

The former Brisbane captain will have a massive part to play at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as his rejuvenated role across the half-backline ensures his consistent multitude of touches to once again prevail.

Harry Attiwill

Melbourne versus St Kilda

Gawn and Marshall to combine for 40+ disposals

The two most dynamic ruckmen in the AFL this season go head-to-head.

Amongst rucks in the competition, these big boys enter the clash as the top two for metres gained, as well as two of the top three for disposals and marks.

Not to mention, both lead their teams for clearances per game, anchoring the midfield in more ways than just winning the taps.

With Gawn averaging 19 touches on the year, and Marshall collecting 31 and 28 in his last two games, expect the heavyweights to find the footy on a dry Sunday at the ‘G.

Steele and Viney to combine for 15+ tackles

The Jacks are arguably two of the toughest tacklers in the modern game.

Averaging eight and seven tackles a piece, both Steele and Viney are vicious around the ball.

Diving into the numbers, Jack Steele sits number one in the AFL this season for centre bounce attendances with 88.7 per cent, while Viney sits second amongst Melbourne midfielders with 71 per cent, so the two will be in and around the ball as frequently as anyone.

In their last matchup, Steele laid a whopping 12 tackles alongside Viney’s six.

Expect the bulls to get to work in the contest.

Jaiden Sciberras

Adelaide versus West Coast

Barrass and McGovern to combine for 15+ intercept possessions and 10+ spoils

The seasoned veterans down back have been a pillar of consistency throughout the season for a youthful West Coast team which has seemingly found its footing.

The two Grand Final winners have combined for 18 intercept possessions and 13 spoils over the last three games and have been crucial in not only keeping the Eagles afloat, but competitive.

Their opponents for the Sunday in Adelaide sit in the bottom six of marks taken inside 50 at 10.8, promising plentiful intercept and spoiling opportunities for the two hard-nosed defenders.

__Taylor Walker to kick 3+ goals __

Who else but the big Texan could we pencil in for goals in this fixture.

In their two matchups last year, Walker scored a combined 120 points, narrowly losing to the Eagles team as a whole who scored 130.

He’s had three scoring shots in each of Adelaide previous four games and we’re confident that if he can improve his accuracy on goal that bit extra, he should comfortably breach the three-goal mark against favourable opposition.

Harry Attiwill

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